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Sisu: Komisjoni arvamus Eesti eelarvekava kohta {SWD(2023) 951 final}
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EUROPEAN
COMMISSION
Brussels, 21.11.2023
SWD(2023) 951 final
COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT
Fiscal Statistical Tables providing relevant background data for the assessment of the
2024 Draft Budgetary Plans
Accompanying the documents
COMMISSION OPINIONS
on the 2024 Draft Budgetary Plans of Austria, Belgium, Croatia, Cyprus, Germany,
Estonia, Greece, Finland, France, Ireland, Italy, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Latvia, Malta,
the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovenia, Slovakia and Spain
{C(2023) 9501 final} - {C(2023) 9502 final} - {C(2023) 9503 final} - {C(2023) 9504 final} -
{C(2023) 9505 final} - {C(2023) 9506 final} - {C(2023) 9507 final} - {C(2023) 9508 final} -
{C(2023) 9509 final} - {C(2023) 9510 final} - {C(2023) 9511 final} - {C(2023) 9512 final} -
{C(2023) 9513 final} - {C(2023) 9514 final} - {C(2023) 9515 final} - {C(2023) 9516 final} -
{C(2023) 9517 final} - {C(2023) 9518 final} - {C(2023) 9519 final} - {C(2023) 9520 final}
EN EN
This document contains tables that provide relevant background data for the assessment of the
Member States’ 2024 Draft Budgetary Plans, as well as the definitions of fiscal surveillance
indicators used in the assessment.
In detail, the following tables are provided for each Member State:
Table 1 (Macroeconomic developments and forecasts) shows the main macroeconomic data,
including real GDP growth and its components, the output gap, employment, unemployment, labour
productivity, inflation, the GDP deflator, compensation of employees, and the net borrowing/lending
vis-à-vis the rest of the world. The projections from the 2024 Draft Budgetary Plans are shown
side-by-side with those of the 2023 Stability Programmes (April 2023), and the Commission 2023
autumn forecast (whose cut-off date was 31 October 2023).
Table 2 (General government budgetary position) shows data on the main general
government revenue and expenditure variables and budgetary targets in the 2024 Budgetary Plans,
in comparison with the Commission 2023 autumn forecast.
Table 3 (Main indicators for fiscal surveillance) includes the relevant fiscal indicators that are
used for fiscal surveillance in this assessment round.
Table 4 (Debt developments) shows the evolution of general government debt and provides a
breakdown of the change in the debt-to-GDP ratio based on the contributions of the primary
balance, the ‘snow-ball effect’ (reflecting the relationship between nominal GDP growth and
interest expenditure), and the ‘stock-flow adjustment’ (that is, other factors that have an impact on
general government debt, such as differences between cash and accrual recording, or the net
accumulation of financial assets).
Tables 5 and 6 (Fiscal policy measures taken by general government) detail the main fiscal
policy measures taken on the revenue and expenditure sides of the budget, as presented in the
2024 Draft Budgetary Plans. The tables present the aggregated budgetary impact of fiscal policy
measures (by main ESA2010 category), as reported by the national authorities in the Plans. The
Commission 2023 autumn forecast does not necessarily incorporate the same list of measures or
quantifications.
Table 7 (RRF – Grants) presents data on grants from the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) as
included in the Plans’ revenue projections, their cash disbursements, and the expenditure categories
(or other costs) financed by those grants. The tables show the data as reported in the Plans,
rounded to one decimal place (small figures may therefore be shown as 0.0).
Table 8 (RRF – Loans), where applicable, presents data on cash disbursements and repayments
of loans from/to the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) as included in the Plans’ projections,
their cash disbursements, and the expenditure categories (or other costs) financed by those loans.
The tables show the data as reported in the Plans, rounded to one decimal place (small figures may
therefore be shown as 0.0).
The Fiscal Statistical Tables are complemented by two thematic boxes:
1
Box 1 (Fiscal surveillance indicators used in the assessment of the 2024 Draft
Budgetary Plans) provides details on the definition of the fiscal stance and its components for
fiscal surveillance purposes in this assessment round. It also explains how the quantified fiscal
adjustment for 2024, as recommended by the Council in spring 2023, has been set, namely, for
countries not yet at the medium-term budgetary objective (MTO), as a ceiling on the growth rate of
net nationally financed primary expenditure.
Box 2 (Statistical recording of Recovery and Resilience Facility-related flows) summarises
the fundamental principles underlying the recording of these transactions.
2
The Fiscal Statistical Tables show data from the 2024 Draft Budgetary Plans and 2023 Stability
Programmes, as publicly reported in those documents. Therefore, the accuracy and quality of the
data presented the tables is influenced by how the information was provided in these source
documents.
Differences between the projections in the 2024 Draft Budgetary Plans (as well as in the 2023
Stability Programmes) and the Commission 2023 autumn forecast may result from different
assumptions/analyses on the macroeconomic and budgetary outlook, and on the implementation of
Member States’ Recovery and Resilience Plans.
3
Box 1:
Fiscal surveillance indicators used in the assessment of the
2024 Draft Budgetary Plans
Definition of the fiscal stance and the growth rate of net nationally financed primary
expenditure
Traditionally, the fiscal stance is defined as a measure of the annual change in the underlying
budgetary position of the general government. It may serve to assess the impact of fiscal policy
on an economy’s aggregate demand, as well as the speed at which the underlying budgetary
position converges towards medium-term budgetary targets. Using the same indicator to gauge
two different concepts is appropriate when government expenditure is funded by national
revenue sources and debt-financing, without large external transfers. However, in the presence
of sizeable transfers from the EU budget (such as those from the Recovery and Resilience
Facility or other EU grants), conventional indicators do not capture the additional fiscal impulse
provided by the EU budget, as the related expenditure is offset by matching revenue from the
EU.
The fiscal stance reported in Table 3 for each Member State aims to assess the economic
impulse stemming from fiscal policies, both those that are nationally financed and those that
are financed by the EU budget. It measures the change in primary expenditure, net of the
incremental impact of discretionary revenue measures, excluding cyclical unemployment
expenditure, but including the change in expenditure financed by Recovery and Resilience Facility
grants and other EU funds, relative to the medium-term (10-year) average potential GDP growth
rate, in nominal terms.
(1+Pott )∙(1+πt )∙Et-1 -(Et -∆RMt )
Fiscal Stancet =
GDPt
Where ‘Pott ’ is the medium-term (10-year) average potential GDP growth rate, ‘πt ’ is the GDP
deflator, and Et =Gt -It -Ut - one_offsGt -(pandemic-related emergency temporary measuresGt ), in a given year ‘t’.
The expenditure aggregate ‘Et ’ comprises primary expenditure (total expenditure ‘Gt ’ less interest
expenditure ‘It ’), net of cyclical unemployment benefits ‘Ut ’ and one-off expenditure ‘one_offsGt ’, in
a given year ‘t’. In turn, ‘∆RMt ’ stands for the incremental budgetary impact of revenue measures
(other than one-off revenue), in a given year ‘t’. (1)
Table 3 also reports on the fiscal adjustment for each member state. Fiscal adjustment is
defined as the nationally financed part of the fiscal stance. It is thus very similar to the fiscal
stance, but excludes expenditure financed by the EU budget. It aims to assess developments in
the fiscal accounts in terms of fiscal discipline, contribution to debt sustainability and progress
towards a medium-term objective. The recommended fiscal adjustment for 2024 is set as a
ceiling on the growth rate of net nationally financed primary expenditure (‘∆NNPEt ’) for countries
not yet at the medium-term budgetary objective (MTO) in the 2023 spring economic surveillance
round (see below for more details). As a rule, in a given year ‘t’, the net nationally financed
primary expenditure aggregate ‘NNPEt ’ is calculated as:
NNPEt =Et -∆RMt =Gt -It -Ut -EUt -oneoffs Gt -∆RMt
(1) In view of the exceptional circumstances created by the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, pandemic-related temporary
emergency measures are also excluded from both the expenditure aggregate and the incremental budgetary impact of
revenue measures. The last of such measures were phased out in 2022.
4
Box 1 (cont.):
Setting the recommended fiscal adjustment for 2024
When setting the recommended fiscal adjustment for 2024 – which, in the 2023 spring
economic surveillance round, was established as a ceiling on the growth rate of net nationally
financed primary expenditure for countries not yet at the MTO – the Commission started from an
annual improvement in the structural balance towards the MTO of 0.5% of GDP – as a
benchmark – as called for by Council Regulation (EC) No 1466/97. (2) This effort was modulated
within a bandwidth of +/- 0.2 percentage points of GDP (hence, within a window of minimum 0.3
and maximum 0.7% of GDP) based on fiscal sustainability considerations. In particular, the
Commission took into account the average annual increase in the structural (primary) balance
needed to achieve a plausible debt reduction or ensure that government debt remains at prudent
levels over the medium term. (3)
For Member States whose structural balance in 2023 was projected to reach a position at or
above the MTO, no fiscal adjustment was recommended for 2024 in the 2023 spring economic
surveillance round. Moreover, for Member States whose structural balance was expected in the
2023 spring economic surveillance round to be below – but close to – the MTO in 2023, the
recommended fiscal adjustment for 2024 was capped to the projected distance to the MTO.
Finally, where applicable, the Commission also took into consideration the need for Member
States to reduce the general government deficit to below the Treaty reference value of 3% of
GDP. In those cases, a minimum improvement in the structural balance of 0.5% of GDP towards
the MTO was set for 2024.
The resulting fiscal adjustment for 2024 – expressed in terms of an improvement in the
structural balance ‘∆SB*2024 ’ – was then translated into an improvement in the structural primary
balance ‘∆SPB*2024 ’, taking into consideration interest expenditure developments ‘∆I2024 ’ as
projected based on the Commission 2023 spring forecast. Subsequently, the resulting fiscal
effort was converted into a maximum growth rate in net nationally financed primary expenditure
‘∆NNPE*2024 ’, on which basis the recommendation was ultimately established:
∆SPB*2024
∆NNPE*2024 =(1+Pot2024 )∙(1+π2024 )- NNPE2023 -1
GDP2024 ∙100
Where ‘NNPE2023 ’ is nationally financed primary expenditure (net of one-off expenditure and
cyclical unemployment expenditure), and SPB*2024 = ∆SB*2024 + ∆I2024 .
Furthermore, in order to monitor compliance with the Council recommendations, the Commission
also examines whether the projected evolution of net nationally financed primary expenditure is
expected to be the result of the winding down of the energy support measures in force, with the
related savings used to reduce the government deficit. Therefore, Table 3 also presents the
change in the net budgetary cost (4) of energy measures in response to high energy prices, as
well as the difference between the fiscal adjustment and the savings related to the winding
down of energy measures.
(2) Cf. Article 5 of Council Regulation (EC) No 1466/97, which also requires an adjustment of more than 0.5% of GDP for
Member States with a government debt exceeding 60% of GDP, or with more pronounced debt sustainability risks.
(3) This estimate was based on the Commission 2022 autumn forecast. The starting point for this estimate was the projected
general government deficit and debt for 2024, which assumed the withdrawal of energy support measures in 2024.
(4) This includes the budgetary cost of energy support measures less revenue from new (taxes and levies on) windfall profits
by energy producers.
5
Box 2:
Statistical recording of Recovery and Resilience Facility-related flows
Eurostat has issued guidance on the statistical recording of flows related to the Recovery and
Resilience Facility (RRF), with the following fundamental principles: (5)
• RRF grants are recorded by matching the time of recording of revenue from the EU
with the time of recording of expenditure financed by these grants. This is irrespective
of the timing of disbursements or pre-financing. This approach is by analogy to the recording
of the traditional EU-fund related flows and it is often referred to as the 'principle of
neutrality of EU flows'. It ensures that timing differences - leads or lags - between
disbursements and concrete spending do not have an effect on the government balance. This
principle is well established, including in the ESA 2010 Regulation.
• The government sector is the counterpart of the RRF grants disbursed by the EU
budget. While some RRF grants may ultimately be channelled to non-governmental entities in
the form of subsidies and/or transfers, the RRF Regulation establishes that the financing
applies at the level of payments from the Commission to the Member States as beneficiaries,
irrespective of the further use of the RRF funds. This is somewhat different from the
statistical recording of other EU fund-related flows, where the direct beneficiary, for national
accounts purposes, can be either the government or a non-governmental entity.
• Loans extended by the RRF to the Member States add to their government's debt. At
the same time, borrowing taken out by the Commission to finance RRF grants is considered as
EU debt and, therefore, it is not attributed to the Member States.
In the Fiscal Statistical Tables, these fundamental principles underly the statistical reporting of
RRF-related flows as presented in Table 2 (General government budgetary position), Table 3
(Main indicators for fiscal surveillance), Table 7 (Recovery and Resilience Facility – Grants), and,
where applicable, also in Table 8 (Recovery and Resilience Facility – Loans).
(5) ‘Guidance note on the statistical recording of the Recovery and Resilience Facility’, Eurostat, September 2021.
6
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1. Belgium 8
2. Germany 14
3. Estonia 20
4. Ireland 26
5. Greece 32
6. Spain 39
7. France 46
8. Croatia 52
9. Italy 59
10. Cyprus 66
11. Latvia 73
12. Lithuania 79
13. Luxembourg 86
14. Malta 92
15. The Netherlands 98
16. Austria 104
17. Portugal 110
18. Slovenia 117
19. Slovakia 124
20. Finland 130
7
1. BELGIUM
Table 1.1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts
2022 2023 2024
# Variables
Outturn SP DBP COM SP DBP COM
1=6+7+8 Real GDP (% change) 3.0 1.0 1.0 1.4 1.7 1.3 1.4
2 Private consumption 3.2 1.6 2.6 1.4 1.9 1.4 1.9
3 Gross fixed capital formation -0.2 0.8 3.5 4.6 2.8 2.7 1.8
4 Exports of goods and services 4.9 2.3 -1.2 -0.2 2.5 1.7 1.3
5 Imports of goods and services 4.9 2.5 -0.4 0.5 2.6 2.0 1.5
Contributions to real GDP growth (pps.)
6 - Final domestic demand 2.5 1.3 0.0 1.9 1.9 0.0 1.6
7 - Change in inventories 0.4 0.0 1.7 0.3 0.0 1.6 0.0
8 - Net exports 0.1 -0.3 -0.7 -0.7 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2
9 Output gap, planned (% of potential GDP) -0.6 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5
1 -0.1 -0.4
10 Output gap, recalculated 0.4 -0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.2
11 Employment (% change) 2.1 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6
12 Unemployment rate (%) 5.6 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.6
13 Labour productivity (% change) 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.6 0.9 0.5 0.7
14 HICP inflation (% change) 10.3 4.5 4.4 2.4 2.9 4.1 4.2
15 GDP deflator 5.9 3.4 3.4 3.8 2.3 2.7 2.7
16 Comp. of employees (per head, % change) 7.3 8.0 7.9 7.0 3.9 4.4 3.6
Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the
17 -1.0 -2.0 0.0 0.2 -1.1 0.0 -0.2
rest of the world (% of GDP)
1
Output gap as recalculated by the Commission services on the basis of the Plan (or Programme) scenario, using the commonly
agreed methodology.
Source: Stability Programme 2023 (SP); Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP); Commission 2023 autumn forecast (COM);
Commission calculations.
8
Belgium
Table 1.2: General government budgetary position
Change in ratio:
2022 2023 2024 2022-2024
# Variables (pps. of GDP)
Outturn SP DBP COM SP DBP COM DBP
1=2+3+4+5 Revenue (% of GDP) 49.6 51.1 50.5 50.0 51.2 51.8 50.4 2.2
of which:
2 - Taxes on production and imports 12.6 13.3 12.9 12.7 13.1 12.8 12.6 0.2
3 - Current taxes on income, wealth, etc. 16.4 16.9 16.7 16.5 17.1 17.6 16.9 1.1
4 - Social contributions 15.1 15.5 15.7 15.4 15.8 15.9 15.5 0.9
5 - Other (residual) 5.4 5.5 5.2 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.4 0.0
6 RRF grants as included in the revenue projections 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1
7 Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants 0.0 0.0 n.a. 0.0 0.0 n.a. 0.0 n.a.
8=9+16 Expenditure (% of GDP) 53.2 56.2 55.7 54.9 55.4 56.4 55.3 3.2
of which:
9 - Primary expenditure 51.6 54.4 53.8 53.1 53.5 54.3 53.2 2.7
of which:
10 - Compensation of employees 12.3 13.1 12.9 12.6 13.0 12.9 12.7 0.7
11 - Intermediate consumption 4.3 4.2 4.4 4.3 4.0 4.3 4.2 0.0
12 - Social payments 25.3 26.8 26.6 26.1 26.8 27.4 26.5 2.1
13 - Subsidies 3.8 3.8 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 -0.2
14 - Gross fixed capital formation 2.7 2.9 3.0 2.9 3.1 3.2 3.2 0.5
15 - Other 3.3 3.6 3.3 3.4 2.9 2.9 3.1 -0.3
16 - Interest expenditure 1.5 1.7 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 0.6
17=6-7 Expenditure financed by RRF grants 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1
18=1-8 General government balance (% of GDP) -3.5 -5.1 -5.2 -4.9 -4.2 -4.6 -4.9 -1.1
19=1-9 Primary balance -2.0 -3.3 -3.3 -3.1 -2.2 -2.5 -2.8 -0.5
20 Cyclically adjusted balance (% of GDP) -3.8 -4.7 -5.0 -4.9 -4.0 -4.3 -4.6 -0.5
21 One-offs (% of GDP) 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2
22=20-21 Structural balance (% of GDP) -3.8 -4.6 -4.8 -4.7 -3.8 -4.1 -4.5 -0.3
23=22+16 Structural primary balance -2.3 -2.8 -2.9 -2.8 -1.9 -2.0 -2.4 0.3
Source: Stability Programme 2023 (SP); Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP); Commission 2023 autumn forecast (COM);
Commission calculations
9
Belgium
Table 1.3: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance
2022 2023 2024
# Variables
Outturn COM COM
Structural fiscal indicators:
1 Structural balance (% of GDP) -3.8 -4.7 -4.5
2 Medium-term budgetary objective (MTO) 0.75
3 At or above MTO? No
4=2-1 Distance to MTO (pps. of GDP) 5.2
Recommended fiscal adjustment for 2024:
1
Recommended maximum growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (%
5 2.0
change)
6 Projected growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (% change) 3.8
Difference from recommended growth in net nationally financed primary
7=5-6 2 -1.8
expenditure (pps.)
3
Total net budgetary cost of energy measures (% of GDP):
8 - level 0.8 0.4 0.0
9 - change 0.8 -0.4 -0.4
4
10=13+9 Difference between fiscal adjustment and savings from energy measures (pps.) -0.1
Expenditure-based fiscal indicators:
5
11=12+13 Fiscal stance (pps. of GDP) -1.8 -1.3 0.3
of which contribution from:
12 - EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds) -0.1 -0.1 0.0
13=14+15+16 - Net nationally financed primary expenditure -1.8 -1.2 0.2
including:
14 - Net nationally financed primary current expenditure -1.7 -0.9 0.5
15 - Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation 0.0 -0.2 -0.2
16 - Nationally financed other capital expenditure -0.1 -0.1 0.0
1
Corresponding (maximum) growth rate of nationally financed primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of
discretionary revenue measures, and excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, consistent with achieving the annual
(minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term objective (MTO).
2
A negative (positive) sign indicates that, assuming unchanged policies, net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected
to grow at a rate above (below) the recommended growth rate.
3
Energy support measures less revenue from new (taxes and levies on) windfall profits by energy producers.
4
A negative (positive) sign indicates that net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected to decrease at a rate less than
(more than) the savings made from winding down the energy measures.
5
The fiscal stance is measured as the change in general government primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary
impact of discretionary revenue measures and COVID-19 pandemic-related temporary emergency measures, excluding cyclical
unemployment expenditure, but including the change in expenditure financed by non-repayable support (grants) from the
Recovery and Resilience Facility and other EU funds relative to the medium-term (10-year) average potential nominal GDP growth
rate. A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (a shortfall) of net primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential
GDP growth, corresponding to an expansionary (a contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 1 on page 5 of these
Fiscal Statistical Tables.
Source: Commission 2023 autumn forecast (COM); Commission calculations
10
Belgium
Table 1.4: Debt developments
2023 2024
# Variables Outturn
SP DBP COM SP DBP COM
1 Gross debt ratio1 (% of GDP) 104.3 106.7 108.3 106.3 107.1 108.1 106.4
2=3+4+8 Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP) -3.6 1.5 3.1 1.9 0.4 -0.2 0.2
2
Contributions :
3 Primary balance 2.0 3.3 3.3 3.1 2.2 2.5 2.8
4≈5+6+7 'Snow-ball' effect -7.4 -2.7 -2.6 -3.3 -2.2 -2.1 -2.1
of which:
5 - Interest expenditure 1.5 1.7 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1
6 - Real growth effect -3.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.4 -1.7 -1.4 -1.4
7 - Inflation effect -5.8 -3.4 -3.4 -3.7 -2.4 -2.9 -2.7
8 'Stock-flow' adjustment 1.8 0.9 2.4 2.2 0.4 -0.6 -0.6
1
End of period.
2
The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the
impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The ‘stock-flow
adjustment’ includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant
disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects.
Source: Stability Programme 2023 (SP); Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP); Commission 2023 autumn forecast (COM);
Commission calculations
11
Belgium
Table 1.5: Fiscal policy measures taken by general government - revenue side
ESA2010 category 2023 2024
#
(% of GDP) DBP
1 Taxes on production and imports 0.0 0.0
2 Current taxes on income, wealth, etc. 0.0 0.3
3 Social contributions 0.0 0.0
4 Property income 0.0 0.0
5 Capital taxes 0.0 0.0
6 Other 0.0 0.0
7=1+2+3+4+5+6 Total 0.0 0.4
The budgetary impact in the table is the aggregated impact of the measures as reported by the national authorities. A positive
(negative) sign implies that general government revenue increases (decreases) as a consequence of the measures.
Source: Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP)
Table 1.6: Fiscal policy measures taken by general government - expenditure side
ESA2010 category 2023 2024
#
(% of GDP) DBP
1 Compensation of employees 0.0 0.0
2 Intermediate consumption 0.0 0.0
3 Social payments 0.0 0.0
4 Interest expenditure 0.0 0.0
5 Subsidies 0.0 0.0
6 Gross fixed capital formation 0.0 0.0
7 Capital transfers 0.0 0.0
8 Other 0.0 0.3
9=1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8 Total 0.0 0.4
The budgetary impact in the table is the aggregated impact of the measures as reported by the national authorities. A positive
(negative) sign implies that general government expenditure increases (decreases) as a consequence of the measures.
Source: Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP)
12
Belgium
Table 1.7: RRF – Grants
# Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
1 RRF grants as included in the revenue projections n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.2 0.2 n.a. n.a.
2 Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EU n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.0 0.4 n.a. n.a.
# Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
1 Total current expenditure n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.1 0.1 n.a. n.a.
2 Gross fixed capital formation n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.0 0.0 n.a. n.a.
3 Capital transfers n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.0 0.0 n.a. n.a.
4=2+3 Total capital expenditure n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.1 0.1 n.a. n.a.
# Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
1 Reduction in tax revenue n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
2 Other costs with impact on revenue n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
3 Financial transactions n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
The table shows the data as reported in the Plan, rounded to one decimal place (small figures may therefore be shown as 0.0).
Source: Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024
13
2. GERMANY
Table 2.1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts
2022 2023 2024
# Variables
Outturn SP DBP COM SP DBP COM
1=6+7+8 Real GDP (% change) 1.8 0.2 0.4 -0.3 1.8 1.6 0.8
2 Private consumption 3.9 -0.2 -0.1 -0.7 1.6 2.1 0.6
3 Gross fixed capital formation 0.1 0.0 -1.0 0.4 2.8 1.3 0.6
4 Exports of goods and services 3.3 2.2 1.3 -0.6 3.3 3.3 1.7
5 Imports of goods and services 6.6 1.6 0.6 -1.3 3.2 3.5 1.7
Contributions to real GDP growth (pps.)
6 - Final domestic demand 2.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.8 1.6 1.6 0.6
7 - Change in inventories 0.7 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1
8 - Net exports -1.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1
9 Output gap, planned (% of potential GDP) -1.1 -0.9 -0.3 -0.3
1 -0.9 -1.0
10 Output gap, recalculated 0.1 -0.7 -0.9 -0.1 -0.5
11 Employment (% change) 1.4 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.3
12 Unemployment rate (%) 3.1 2.8 2.7 3.1 2.7 2.6 3.2
13 Labour productivity (% change) 0.4 -0.2 -0.4 -1.0 1.5 1.4 0.5
14 HICP inflation (% change) 8.7 n.a. n.a. 6.2 n.a. n.a. 3.1
15 GDP deflator 5.3 5.9 5.7 6.3 2.7 2.3 3.0
16 Comp. of employees (per head, % change) 3.9 5.1 5.5 5.5 4.7 5.3 5.2
Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the
17 3.7 4.9 5.1 6.0 5.3 4.9 6.4
rest of the world (% of GDP)
1
Output gap as recalculated by the Commission services on the basis of the Plan (or Programme) scenario, using the commonly
agreed methodology.
Source: Stability Programme 2023 (SP); Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP); Commission 2023 autumn forecast (COM);
Commission calculations.
14
Germany
Table 2.2: General government budgetary position
Change in ratio:
2022 2023 2024 2022-2024
# Variables (pps. of GDP)
Outturn SP DBP COM SP DBP COM DBP
1=2+3+4+5 Revenue (% of GDP) 47.0 45 ¾ 46 46.0 46 46 ½ 46.5 -½
of which:
2 - Taxes on production and imports 10.8 10 ¾ 10 ½ 10.6 10 ¾ 10 ¾ 10.7 -¼
3 - Current taxes on income, wealth, etc. 13.6 13 13 12.9 13 13 12.8 -¾
4 - Social contributions 17.2 17 ¼ 17 ¼ 17.1 17 ½ 17 ¾ 17.5 ½
5 - Other (residual) 5.4 5 5¼ 5.4 5 5¼ 5.5 -¼
6 RRF grants as included in the revenue projections 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
7 Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8=9+16 Expenditure (% of GDP) 49.5 50 48 ½ 48.2 47 ¾ 48 ¼ 48.1 -1 ¼
of which:
9 - Primary expenditure 48.8 49 ¼ 47 ¾ 47.4 46 ¾ 47 ½ 47.2 -1 ½
of which:
10 - Compensation of employees 7.9 7¾ 7¾ 7.9 7¾ 8 8.0 0
11 - Intermediate consumption 6.1 5¾ 5¾ 6.0 5¾ 6 6.0 -¼
12 - Social payments 25.1 24 ¾ 24 ¾ 24.8 24 ¾ 24 ¾ 25.0 -¼
13 - Subsidies 1.8 3¾ 2¼ 1.8 1¾ 1½ 1.1 -¼
14 - Gross fixed capital formation 2.6 2½ 2¾ 2.6 2½ 3 2.7 ¼
15 - Other 5.2 4¾ 4¼ 4.3 4¼ 4¼ 4.3 -1
16 - Interest expenditure 0.7 ¾ ¾ 0.8 1 1 0.9 ¼
17=6-7 Expenditure financed by RRF grants 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
18=1-8 General government balance (% of GDP) -2.5 -4 ¼ -2 ½ -2.2 -1 ¾ -2 -1.6 ½
19=1-9 Primary balance -1.8 -3 ½ -1 ¾ -1.4 -¾ -1 -0.7 ¾
20 Cyclically adjusted balance (% of GDP) -2.6 -3 ½ -2 -1.7 -1 ½ -1 ¾ -1.1 ¾
21 One-offs (% of GDP) -0.2 -¼ 0 0.0 0 0 0.0 ¼
22=20-21 Structural balance (% of GDP) -2.4 -3 ¼ -2 -1.7 -1 ½ -1 ¾ -1.1 ¾
23=22+16 Structural primary balance -1.7 -2 ½ -1 ¼ -0.9 -½ -¾ -0.2 ¾
Source: Stability Programme 2023 (SP); Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP); Commission 2023 autumn forecast (COM);
Commission calculations
15
Germany
Table 2.3: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance
2022 2023 2024
# Variables
Outturn COM COM
Structural fiscal indicators:
1 Structural balance (% of GDP) -2.4 -1.7 -1.1
2 Medium-term budgetary objective (MTO) -0.5
3 At or above MTO? No
4=2-1 Distance to MTO (pps. of GDP) 0.6
Recommended fiscal adjustment for 2024:
1
Recommended maximum growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (%
5 2.5
change)
6 Projected growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (% change) 2.6
Difference from recommended growth in net nationally financed primary
7=5-6 2 -0.1
expenditure (pps.)
3
Total net budgetary cost of energy measures (% of GDP):
8 - level 1.2 1.4 0.3
9 - change 1.2 0.2 -1.2
4
10=13+9 Difference between fiscal adjustment and savings from energy measures (pps.) -0.6
Expenditure-based fiscal indicators:
5
11=12+13 Fiscal stance (pps. of GDP) -2.8 0.7 0.6
of which contribution from:
12 - EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds) 0.1 0.0 0.0
13=14+15+16 - Net nationally financed primary expenditure -2.9 0.7 0.6
including:
14 - Net nationally financed primary current expenditure -2.4 0.5 0.9
15 - Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation 0.0 0.0 -0.1
16 - Nationally financed other capital expenditure -0.4 0.2 -0.1
1
Corresponding (maximum) growth rate of nationally financed primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of
discretionary revenue measures, and excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, consistent with achieving the annual
(minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term objective (MTO).
2
A negative (positive) sign indicates that, assuming unchanged policies, net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected
to grow at a rate above (below) the recommended growth rate. The projected growth rate of net nationally financed primary
expenditure in 2024 included in the Commission forecast is impacted by a statistical reclassification of public transport entities
into the general government sector as of July 2023, which created a break in the time series. When correcting for this effect, the
projected growth rate of net nationally financed primary expenditure is less than the recommended maximum growth. This is in
line with what was recommended by the Council.
3
Energy support measures less revenue from new (taxes and levies on) windfall profits by energy producers.
4
A negative (positive) sign indicates that net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected to decrease at a rate less than
(more than) the savings made from winding down the energy measures.
5
The fiscal stance is measured as the change in general government primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary
impact of discretionary revenue measures and COVID-19 pandemic-related temporary emergency measures, excluding cyclical
unemployment expenditure, but including the change in expenditure financed by non-repayable support (grants) from the
Recovery and Resilience Facility and other EU funds relative to the medium-term (10-year) average potential nominal GDP growth
rate. A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (a shortfall) of net primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential
GDP growth, corresponding to an expansionary (a contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 1 on page 5 of these
Fiscal Statistical Tables.
Source: Commission 2023 autumn forecast (COM); Commission calculations
16
Germany
Table 2.4: Debt developments
2023 2024
# Variables Outturn
SP DBP COM SP DBP COM
1 Gross debt ratio1 (% of GDP) 66.1 67 ¾ 65 ¼ 64.8 66 ½ 64 ¾ 63.6
2=3+4+8 Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP) -2.9 1½ -¾ -1.3 -1 ¼ -½ -1.2
2
Contributions :
3 Primary balance 1.8 3½ 1¾ 1.4 ¾ 1 0.7
4≈5+6+7 'Snow-ball' effect -3.9 -3 -3 -2.9 -2 -1 ½ -1.5
of which:
5 - Interest expenditure 0.7 ¾ ¾ 0.8 1 1 0.9
6 - Real growth effect -1.2 0 -¼ 0.2 -1 ¼ -1 -0.5
7 - Inflation effect -3.4 -3 ¾ -3 ½ -3.9 -1 ¾ -1 ½ -1.9
8 'Stock-flow' adjustment -0.8 1 ½ 0.2 0 0 -0.4
1
End of period.
2
The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the
impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The ‘stock-flow
adjustment’ includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant
disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects.
Source: Stability Programme 2023 (SP); Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP); Commission 2023 autumn forecast (COM);
Commission calculations
17
Germany
Table 2.5: Fiscal policy measures taken by general government - revenue side
ESA2010 category 2023 2024
#
(% of GDP) DBP
1 Taxes on production and imports 0.0 0.2
2 Current taxes on income, wealth, etc. -0.2 -0.4
3 Social contributions 0.1 0.1
4 Property income - -
5 Capital taxes - -
6 Other - -
7=1+2+3+4+5+6 Total -0.1 -0.1
The budgetary impact in the table is the aggregated impact of the measures as reported by the national authorities. A positive
(negative) sign implies that general government revenue increases (decreases) as a consequence of the measures.
Source: Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP)
Table 2.6: Fiscal policy measures taken by general government - expenditure side
ESA2010 category 2023 2024
#
(% of GDP) DBP
1 Compensation of employees - -
2 Intermediate consumption - -
3 Social payments - -
4 Interest expenditure - -
5 Subsidies 1.2 0.4
6 Gross fixed capital formation - -
7 Capital transfers 0.1 0.3
8 Other - -
9=1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8 Total 1.2 0.7
The budgetary impact in the table is the aggregated impact of the measures as reported by the national authorities. A positive
(negative) sign implies that general government expenditure increases (decreases) as a consequence of the measures.
Source: Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP)
18
Germany
Table 2.7: RRF – Grants
# Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
1 RRF grants as included in the revenue projections 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
2 Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EU 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1
# Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
1 Total current expenditure 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2 Gross fixed capital formation 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
3 Capital transfers 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
4=2+3 Total capital expenditure 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
# Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
1 Reduction in tax revenue 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2 Other costs with impact on revenue 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
3 Financial transactions 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
The table shows the data as reported in the Plan, rounded to one decimal place (small figures may therefore be shown as 0.0).
Source: Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024
19
3. ESTONIA
Table 3.1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts
2022 2023 2024
# Variables
Outturn SP DBP COM SP DBP COM
1=6+7+8 Real GDP (% change) -0.5 -1.5 -2.0 -2.6 3.0 2.7 1.9
2 Private consumption 2.0 -1.1 0.0 -1.9 2.4 1.5 3.1
3 Gross fixed capital formation -3.7 5.7 -2.1 -13.3 3.8 3.1 2.1
4 Exports of goods and services 3.0 -1.0 -4.2 -3.6 3.2 2.9 2.6
5 Imports of goods and services 3.2 -1.4 -4.7 -7.0 1.9 1.4 3.2
Contributions to real GDP growth (pps.)
6 - Final domestic demand -0.1 -1.9 -0.1 -4.1 1.8 1.6 2.3
7 - Change in inventories 1.0 0.0 -2.3 -1.5 0.0 -0.2 0.0
8 - Net exports -0.2 0.4 0.4 2.9 1.1 1.3 -0.4
9 Output gap, planned (% of potential GDP) -4.9 -4.4 -3.4 -3.3
1 -4.6 -3.8
10 Output gap, recalculated -1.1 -4.2 -4.8 -2.8 -3.8
11 Employment (% change) 4.6 0.3 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.4 -1.0
12 Unemployment rate (%) 5.6 7.4 6.1 7.0 7.2 6.7 6.9
13 Labour productivity (% change) -4.8 -1.8 -3.0 -3.3 2.4 2.3 3.0
14 HICP inflation (% change) 19.4 9.3 9.6 9.4 3.1 4.8 3.5
15 GDP deflator 16.1 7.6 9.9 9.2 2.6 4.0 4.1
16 Comp. of employees (per head, % change) 8.1 9.0 10.0 10.0 5.7 6.7 6.3
Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the
17 -2.9 -0.3 1.3 0.8 0.6 2.3 1.2
rest of the world (% of GDP)
1
Output gap as recalculated by the Commission services on the basis of the Plan (or Programme) scenario, using the commonly
agreed methodology.
Source: Stability Programme 2023 (SP); Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP); Commission 2023 autumn forecast (COM);
Commission calculations.
20
Estonia
Table 3.2: General government budgetary position
Change in ratio:
2022 2023 2024 2022-2024
# Variables (pps. of GDP)
Outturn SP DBP COM SP DBP COM DBP
1=2+3+4+5 Revenue (% of GDP) 38.8 38.6 39.8 39.8 37.7 40.2 40.2 1.4
of which:
2 - Taxes on production and imports 13.2 13.5 13.2 13.4 13.3 13.7 14.1 0.5
3 - Current taxes on income, wealth, etc. 8.0 7.7 8.1 8.2 7.4 8.1 8.1 0.1
4 - Social contributions 11.7 12.0 12.1 12.2 12.0 12.2 12.1 0.5
5 - Other (residual) 5.8 5.4 6.4 6.0 5.0 6.2 6.0 0.4
6 RRF grants as included in the revenue projections 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.7
7 Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants 0.0 n.a. n.a. 0.0 n.a. n.a. 0.0 n.a.
8=9+16 Expenditure (% of GDP) 39.8 42.9 43.1 42.7 41.9 43.1 42.7 3.3
of which:
9 - Primary expenditure 39.7 42.4 42.6 42.2 41.3 42.5 42.1 2.8
of which:
10 - Compensation of employees 10.5 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.1 11.4 11.3 0.9
11 - Intermediate consumption 6.5 7.0 7.3 7.1 7.1 7.2 6.8 0.7
12 - Social payments 13.9 14.8 14.7 14.8 15.0 14.8 15.3 0.9
13 - Subsidies 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.6 -0.4
14 - Gross fixed capital formation 5.1 5.5 5.5 5.2 5.3 5.8 5.4 0.7
15 - Other 2.8 2.9 3.1 2.9 2.3 2.8 2.7 0.0
16 - Interest expenditure 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5
17=6-7 Expenditure financed by RRF grants 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.7
18=1-8 General government balance (% of GDP) -1.0 -4.3 -3.3 -2.9 -4.2 -2.9 -2.4 -1.9
19=1-9 Primary balance -0.9 -3.9 -2.8 -2.4 -3.6 -2.3 -1.9 -1.4
20 Cyclically adjusted balance (% of GDP) -0.4 -2.0 -1.2 -0.7 -2.6 -1.2 -0.6 -0.8
21 One-offs (% of GDP) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1
22=20-21 Structural balance (% of GDP) -0.6 -2.0 -1.2 -0.7 -2.6 -1.2 -0.6 -0.6
23=22+16 Structural primary balance -0.5 -1.5 -0.7 -0.2 -2.0 -0.6 0.0 -0.1
Source: Stability Programme 2023 (SP); Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP); Commission 2023 autumn forecast (COM);
Commission calculations
21
Estonia
Table 3.3: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance
2022 2023 2024
# Variables
Outturn COM COM
Structural fiscal indicators:
1 Structural balance (% of GDP) -0.6 -0.7 -0.6
2 Medium-term budgetary objective (MTO) -0.75
3 At or above MTO? Yes
4=2-1 Distance to MTO (pps. of GDP) n.a.
Recommended fiscal adjustment for 2024:
1
Recommended maximum growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (%
5 4.9
change)
6 Projected growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (% change) 4.2
Difference from recommended growth in net nationally financed primary
7=5-6 2 0.7
expenditure (pps.)
3
Total net budgetary cost of energy measures (% of GDP):
8 - level 0.8 0.3 0.0
9 - change 0.7 -0.6 -0.3
4
10=13+9 Difference between fiscal adjustment and savings from energy measures (pps.) 0.5
Expenditure-based fiscal indicators:
5
11=12+13 Fiscal stance (pps. of GDP) 0.9 -0.7 0.8
of which contribution from:
12 - EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds) 0.2 0.0 0.0
13=14+15+16 - Net nationally financed primary expenditure 0.7 -0.7 0.8
including:
14 - Net nationally financed primary current expenditure 0.4 -1.1 0.8
15 - Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation 0.6 0.1 -0.3
16 - Nationally financed other capital expenditure -0.4 0.3 0.3
1
Corresponding (maximum) growth rate of nationally financed primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of
discretionary revenue measures, and excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, consistent with achieving the annual
(minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term objective (MTO).
2
A negative (positive) sign indicates that, assuming unchanged policies, net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected
to grow at a rate above (below) the recommended growth rate.
3
Energy support measures less revenue from new (taxes and levies on) windfall profits by energy producers.
4
A negative (positive) sign indicates that net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected to decrease at a rate less than
(more than) the savings made from winding down the energy measures.
5
The fiscal stance is measured as the change in general government primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary
impact of discretionary revenue measures and COVID-19 pandemic-related temporary emergency measures, excluding cyclical
unemployment expenditure, but including the change in expenditure financed by non-repayable support (grants) from the
Recovery and Resilience Facility and other EU funds relative to the medium-term (10-year) average potential nominal GDP growth
rate. A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (a shortfall) of net primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential
GDP growth, corresponding to an expansionary (a contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 1 on page 5 of these
Fiscal Statistical Tables.
Source: Commission 2023 autumn forecast (COM); Commission calculations
22
Estonia
Table 3.4: Debt developments
2023 2024
# Variables Outturn
SP DBP COM SP DBP COM
1 Gross debt ratio1 (% of GDP) 18.5 20.2 19.4 19.2 23.6 20.9 20.5
2=3+4+8 Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP) 0.7 1.8 0.9 0.7 3.4 1.5 1.3
2
Contributions :
3 Primary balance 0.9 3.9 2.8 2.4 3.6 2.3 1.9
4≈5+6+7 'Snow-ball' effect -2.3 -0.6 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.6 -0.5
of which:
5 - Interest expenditure 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6
6 - Real growth effect 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 -0.6 -0.5 -0.3
7 - Inflation effect -2.5 -1.3 -1.7 -1.6 -0.5 -0.7 -0.7
8 'Stock-flow' adjustment 2.2 -1.5 -1.1 -1.1 0.3 -0.1 0.0
1
End of period.
2
The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the
impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The ‘stock-flow
adjustment’ includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant
disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects.
Source: Stability Programme 2023 (SP); Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP); Commission 2023 autumn forecast (COM);
Commission calculations
23
Estonia
Table 3.5: Fiscal policy measures taken by general government - revenue side
ESA2010 category 2023 2024
#
(% of GDP) DBP
1 Taxes on production and imports 0.0 0.1
2 Current taxes on income, wealth, etc. 0.0 0.3
3 Social contributions 0.0 0.1
4 Property income 0.0 0.1
5 Capital taxes - -
6 Other 0.0 0.0
7=1+2+3+4+5+6 Total 0.0 0.6
The budgetary impact in the table is the aggregated impact of the measures as reported by the national authorities. A positive
(negative) sign implies that general government revenue increases (decreases) as a consequence of the measures.
Source: Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP)
Table 3.6: Fiscal policy measures taken by general government - expenditure side
ESA2010 category 2023 2024
#
(% of GDP) DBP
1 Compensation of employees 0.0 -0.2
2 Intermediate consumption 0.0 -0.2
3 Social payments 0.0 0.0
4 Interest expenditure 0.0 0.0
5 Subsidies - -
6 Gross fixed capital formation 0.0 -0.1
7 Capital transfers 0.0 0.0
8 Other 0.0 0.0
9=1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8 Total 0.0 -0.6
The budgetary impact in the table is the aggregated impact of the measures as reported by the national authorities. A positive
(negative) sign implies that general government expenditure increases (decreases) as a consequence of the measures.
Source: Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP)
24
Estonia
Table 3.7: RRF – Grants
# Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
1 RRF grants as included in the revenue projections n.a. 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.1
2 Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EU n.a. 0.4 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.4
# Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
1 Total current expenditure n.a. 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
2 Gross fixed capital formation n.a. 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
3 Capital transfers n.a. 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1
4=2+3 Total capital expenditure n.a. 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1
# Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
1 Reduction in tax revenue n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.0
2 Other costs with impact on revenue n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.0
3 Financial transactions n.a. 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
The table shows the data as reported in the Plan, rounded to one decimal place (small figures may therefore be shown as 0.0).
Source: Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024
25
4. IRELAND
Table 4.1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts
2022 2023 2024
# Variables
Outturn SP DBP COM SP DBP COM
1=6+7+8 Real GDP (% change) 9.4 5.6 2.0 -0.9 4.1 4.5 3.0
2 Private consumption 9.4 3.9 3.3 3.2 3.8 3.2 3.0
3 Gross fixed capital formation 5.1 2.4 -3.4 -2.9 3.3 3.6 2.5
4 Exports of goods and services 13.9 7.8 2.1 -1.5 4.9 5.3 3.5
5 Imports of goods and services 15.9 6.4 1.1 -0.8 4.3 4.5 3.1
Contributions to real GDP growth (pps.)
6 - Final domestic demand 4.0 1.7 0.2 0.4 1.8 1.6 1.4
7 - Change in inventories 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8 - Net exports 3.7 4.3 1.8 -1.3 2.6 2.9 1.7
9 Output gap, planned (% of potential GDP) 2.3 1.1 0.9 0.3
1 2.1 0.9
10 Output gap, recalculated 7.8 3.4 3.1 1.4 2.4
11 Employment (% change) 6.6 1.6 3.4 3.4 1.4 1.3 1.4
12 Unemployment rate (%) 4.5 4.4 4.1 4.2 4.5 4.2 4.2
13 Labour productivity (% change) 2.6 4.0 -1.4 -4.2 2.7 3.1 1.6
14 HICP inflation (% change) 8.1 4.9 5.3 5.3 2.5 2.9 2.7
15 GDP deflator 6.6 4.0 4.1 5.1 2.3 2.4 2.6
16 Comp. of employees (per head, % change) 2.7 5.6 4.4 5.0 5.0 4.6 5.5
Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the
17 10.1 11.1 1.3 3.2 11.6 1.5 3.3
rest of the world (% of GDP)
1
Output gap as recalculated by the Commission services on the basis of the Plan (or Programme) scenario, using the commonly
agreed methodology.
Source: Stability Programme 2023 (SP); Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP); Commission 2023 autumn forecast (COM);
Commission calculations.
26
Ireland
Table 4.2: General government budgetary position
Change in ratio:
2022 2023 2024 2022-2024
# Variables (pps. of GDP)
Outturn SP DBP COM SP DBP COM DBP
1=2+3+4+5 Revenue (% of GDP) 22.9 22.4 23.2 23.0 22.0 22.5 22.5 -0.4
of which:
2 - Taxes on production and imports 6.3 6.0 6.1 6.5 6.1 6.0 6.4 -0.2
3 - Current taxes on income, wealth, etc. 11.2 11.0 11.2 10.9 10.8 10.9 10.4 -0.3
4 - Social contributions 4.0 3.8 4.0 4.2 3.9 4.1 4.2 0.1
5 - Other (residual) 1.5 1.5 1.9 1.5 1.2 1.6 1.5 0.1
6 RRF grants as included in the revenue projections 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
7 Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants 0.0 n.a. 0.0 0.0 n.a. 0.0 0.0 0.0
8=9+16 Expenditure (% of GDP) 21.2 20.6 21.6 22.1 19.2 21.1 21.9 -0.2
of which:
9 - Primary expenditure 20.6 19.9 21.0 21.4 18.6 20.5 21.3 -0.1
of which:
10 - Compensation of employees 5.7 5.4 5.6 5.7 5.2 5.5 5.7 -0.2
11 - Intermediate consumption 3.5 3.3 3.6 3.7 3.1 3.4 3.5 -0.1
12 - Social payments 7.3 7.0 7.3 7.8 6.5 7.1 7.7 -0.3
13 - Subsidies 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.6 -0.1
14 - Gross fixed capital formation 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.3 0.2
15 - Other 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.7 1.4 0.3
16 - Interest expenditure 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 -0.1
17=6-7 Expenditure financed by RRF grants 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
18=1-8 General government balance (% of GDP) 1.7 1.8 1.6 0.9 2.8 1.5 0.6 -0.2
19=1-9 Primary balance 2.3 2.4 2.3 1.6 3.3 2.1 1.3 -0.3
20 Cyclically adjusted balance (% of GDP) -2.4 0.6 1.1 -0.2 2.3 1.3 0.1 3.7
21 One-offs (% of GDP) 0.0 1.0 -0.6 0.0 1.9 -0.9 0.0 -0.9
22=20-21 Structural balance (% of GDP) -2.4 -0.4 0.5 -0.2 0.4 0.5 0.1 2.8
23=22+16 Structural primary balance -1.7 0.3 1.1 0.5 1.0 1.1 0.8 2.8
Source: Stability Programme 2023 (SP); Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP); Commission 2023 autumn forecast (COM);
Commission calculations
27
Ireland
Table 4.3: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance
2022 2023 2024
# Variables
Outturn COM COM
Structural fiscal indicators:
1 Structural balance (% of GDP) -2.4 -0.2 0.1
2 Medium-term budgetary objective (MTO) -0.5
3 At or above MTO? Yes
4=2-1 Distance to MTO (pps. of GDP) n.a.
Recommended fiscal adjustment for 2024:
1
Recommended maximum growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (%
5 na.
change)
6 Projected growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (% change) 6.3
Difference from recommended growth in net nationally financed primary
7=5-6 2 n.a.
expenditure (pps.)
3
Total net budgetary cost of energy measures (% of GDP):
8 - level 0.5 0.4 0.2
9 - change 0.5 -0.1 -0.2
4
10=13+9 Difference between fiscal adjustment and savings from energy measures (pps.) 0.3
Expenditure-based fiscal indicators:
5
11=12+13 Fiscal stance (pps. of GDP) -0.1 -0.5 0.4
of which contribution from:
12 - EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds) 0.1 0.0 0.0
13=14+15+16 - Net nationally financed primary expenditure -0.2 -0.5 0.4
including:
14 - Net nationally financed primary current expenditure -0.1 -0.4 0.6
15 - Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation -0.1 0.0 -0.1
16 - Nationally financed other capital expenditure -0.1 -0.2 0.0
1
Corresponding (maximum) growth rate of nationally financed primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of
discretionary revenue measures, and excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, consistent with achieving the annual
(minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term objective (MTO).
2
A negative (positive) sign indicates that, assuming unchanged policies, net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected
to grow at a rate above (below) the recommended growth rate.
3
Energy support measures less revenue from new (taxes and levies on) windfall profits by energy producers.
4
A negative (positive) sign indicates that net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected to decrease at a rate less than
(more than) the savings made from winding down the energy measures.
5
The fiscal stance is measured as the change in general government primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary
impact of discretionary revenue measures and COVID-19 pandemic-related temporary emergency measures, excluding cyclical
unemployment expenditure, but including the change in expenditure financed by non-repayable support (grants) from the
Recovery and Resilience Facility and other EU funds relative to the medium-term (10-year) average potential nominal GDP growth
rate. A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (a shortfall) of net primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential
GDP growth, corresponding to an expansionary (a contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 1 on page 5 of these
Fiscal Statistical Tables.
Source: Commission 2023 autumn forecast (COM); Commission calculations
28
Ireland
Table 4.4: Debt developments
2023 2024
# Variables Outturn
SP DBP COM SP DBP COM
1 Gross debt ratio1 (% of GDP) 44.4 40.5 41.4 43.0 38.2 38.6 41.4
2=3+4+8 Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP) -10.0 -4.2 -3.0 -1.4 -2.3 -2.8 -1.6
2
Contributions :
3 Primary balance -2.3 -2.4 -2.3 -1.6 -3.3 -2.1 -1.3
4≈5+6+7 'Snow-ball' effect -7.1 -3.4 -2.0 -1.1 -1.9 -2.1 -1.7
of which:
5 - Interest expenditure 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6
6 - Real growth effect -4.4 -2.3 -0.8 0.4 -1.6 -1.7 -1.2
7 - Inflation effect -3.1 -1.6 -1.7 -2.2 -0.9 -0.9 -1.0
8 'Stock-flow' adjustment -0.6 1.6 1.3 1.3 2.9 1.4 1.4
1
End of period.
2
The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the
impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The ‘stock-flow
adjustment’ includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant
disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects.
Source: Stability Programme 2023 (SP); Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP); Commission 2023 autumn forecast (COM);
Commission calculations
29
Ireland
Table 4.5: Fiscal policy measures taken by general government - revenue side
ESA2010 category 2023 2024
#
(% of GDP) DBP
1 Taxes on production and imports 0.0 0.0
2 Current taxes on income, wealth, etc. 0.0 -0.1
3 Social contributions 0.0 0.0
4 Property income - -
5 Capital taxes 0.0 0.0
6 Other - -
7=1+2+3+4+5+6 Total 0.0 -0.1
The budgetary impact in the table is the aggregated impact of the measures as reported by the national authorities. A positive
(negative) sign implies that general government revenue increases (decreases) as a consequence of the measures.
Source: Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP)
Table 4.6: Fiscal policy measures taken by general government - expenditure side
ESA2010 category 2023 2024
#
(% of GDP) DBP
1 Compensation of employees 0.1 0.1
2 Intermediate consumption 0.2 -0.1
3 Social payments 0.6 0.3
4 Interest expenditure - -
5 Subsidies 0.0 0.0
6 Gross fixed capital formation 0.0 0.0
7 Capital transfers 0.0 0.1
8 Other 0.1 -0.1
9=1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8 Total 1.0 0.3
The budgetary impact in the table is the aggregated impact of the measures as reported by the national authorities. A positive
(negative) sign implies that general government expenditure increases (decreases) as a consequence of the measures.
Source: Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP)
30
Ireland
Table 4.7: RRF – Grants
# Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
1 RRF grants as included in the revenue projections 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
2 Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EU 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
# Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
1 Total current expenditure 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2 Gross fixed capital formation 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
3 Capital transfers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
4=2+3 Total capital expenditure 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
# Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
1 Reduction in tax revenue 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2 Other costs with impact on revenue 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
3 Financial transactions 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
The table shows the data as reported in the Plan, rounded to one decimal place (small figures may therefore be shown as 0.0).
Source: Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024
31
5. GREECE
Table 5.1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts
2022 2023 2024
# Variables
Outturn SP DBP COM SP DBP COM
1=6+7+8 Real GDP (% change) 5.6 2.3 2.3 2.4 3.0 3.0 2.3
2 Private consumption 7.4 1.2 2.5 2.8 2.0 1.6 1.9
3 Gross fixed capital formation 11.7 13.2 8.3 6.9 9.7 12.1 7.5
4 Exports of goods and services 6.2 2.3 2.7 5.7 6.2 6.3 5.0
5 Imports of goods and services 7.2 2.6 2.2 3.0 4.4 4.5 3.8
Contributions to real GDP growth (pps.)
6 - Final domestic demand 7.1 2.6 3.0 3.7 2.6 2.7 1.9
7 - Change in inventories -0.6 0.0 -0.7 -2.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
8 - Net exports -1.0 -0.3 0.0 1.0 0.3 0.4 0.3
9 Output gap, planned (% of potential GDP) -0.2 0.2 1.7 1.7
1 0.3 1.0
10 Output gap, recalculated -1.3 -0.6 0.0 0.1 1.2
11 Employment (% change) 2.5 0.9 1.4 1.5 1.0 0.9 1.1
12 Unemployment rate (%) 12.5 -5.4 11.2 11.4 -7.2 10.6 10.7
13 Labour productivity (% change) 3.0 1.3 1.0 0.8 2.0 2.1 1.2
14 HICP inflation (% change) 9.3 4.5 4.0 4.3 2.4 2.4 2.8
15 GDP deflator 7.8 4.1 5.3 5.3 1.8 1.9 2.7
16 Comp. of employees (per head, % change) 2.8 3.2 4.7 4.9 3.4 2.7 4.1
Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the
17 -8.1 -7.3 -2.6 -4.4 -6.4 -1.3 -3.3
rest of the world (% of GDP)
1
Output gap as recalculated by the Commission services on the basis of the Plan (or Programme) scenario, using the commonly
agreed methodology.
Source: Stability Programme 2023 (SP); Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP); Commission 2023 autumn forecast (COM);
Commission calculations.
32
Greece
Table 5.2: General government budgetary position
Change in ratio:
2022 2023 2024 2022-2024
# Variables (pps. of GDP)
Outturn SP DBP COM SP DBP COM DBP
1=2+3+4+5 Revenue (% of GDP) 50.5 47.1 47.5 48.1 46.5 46.8 47.1 -3.7
of which:
2 - Taxes on production and imports 19.1 16.9 17.1 17.5 16.4 16.8 17.1 -2.3
3 - Current taxes on income, wealth, etc. 9.5 9.6 10.0 10.1 9.5 9.5 9.7 0.0
4 - Social contributions 14.1 12.6 12.9 13.4 12.3 12.6 13.2 -1.5
5 - Other (residual) 7.8 8.0 7.4 7.2 8.3 7.9 7.2 0.1
6 RRF grants as included in the revenue projections 0.5 1.3 0.9 0.8 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.0
7 Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8=9+16 Expenditure (% of GDP) 52.9 48.9 49.6 50.5 47.3 47.8 47.9 -5.0
of which:
9 - Primary expenditure 50.4 45.9 46.3 47.0 44.4 44.6 44.6 -5.7
of which:
10 - Compensation of employees 11.0 10.5 10.4 10.5 10.3 10.4 10.6 -0.6
11 - Intermediate consumption 5.6 5.4 5.6 5.6 4.9 5.4 5.4 -0.2
12 - Social payments 21.0 20.0 20.2 21.2 19.3 19.2 19.8 -1.7
13 - Subsidies 5.4 2.0 2.0 3.1 1.4 1.4 2.3 -4.1
14 - Gross fixed capital formation 3.6 4.8 4.6 4.0 5.4 5.3 4.0 1.7
15 - Other 3.8 3.2 3.5 2.7 3.1 3.0 2.6 -0.9
16 - Interest expenditure 2.5 3.0 3.3 3.5 2.9 3.2 3.3 0.7
17=6-7 Expenditure financed by RRF grants 0.5 1.5 0.9 0.8 1.9 1.5 1.4 1.0
18=1-8 General government balance (% of GDP) -2.4 -1.8 -2.1 -2.3 -0.8 -1.0 -0.9 1.3
19=1-9 Primary balance 0.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 2.1 2.1 2.5 2.0
20 Cyclically adjusted balance (% of GDP) -1.7 -1.7 -2.2 -2.5 -1.7 -1.9 -1.4 -0.2
21 One-offs (% of GDP) 0.5 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.5
22=20-21 Structural balance (% of GDP) -2.2 -1.7 -1.9 -2.3 -1.7 -1.9 -1.3 0.3
23=22+16 Structural primary balance 0.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.3 2.0 1.0
Source: Stability Programme 2023 (SP); Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP); Commission 2023 autumn forecast (COM);
Commission calculations
33
Greece
Table 5.3: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance
2022 2023 2024
# Variables
Outturn COM COM
Structural fiscal indicators:
1 Structural balance (% of GDP) -2.2 -2.3 -1.3
2 Medium-term budgetary objective (MTO) 0.5
3 At or above MTO? No
4=2-1 Distance to MTO (pps. of GDP) 1.8
Recommended fiscal adjustment for 2024:
1
Recommended maximum growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (%
5 2.6
change)
6 Projected growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (% change) -0.3
Difference from recommended growth in net nationally financed primary
7=5-6 2 2.9
expenditure (pps.)
3
Total net budgetary cost of energy measures (% of GDP):
8 - level 2.6 0.0 0.1
9 - change 2.1 -2.6 0.1
4
10=13+9 Difference between fiscal adjustment and savings from energy measures (pps.) 1.5
Expenditure-based fiscal indicators:
5
11=12+13 Fiscal stance (pps. of GDP) -1.4 -0.7 1.0
of which contribution from:
12 - EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds) 0.2 -0.4 -0.4
13=14+15+16 - Net nationally financed primary expenditure -1.6 -0.3 1.4
including:
14 - Net nationally financed primary current expenditure -0.9 0.0 1.1
15 - Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation -0.7 -0.4 0.2
16 - Nationally financed other capital expenditure 0.0 0.1 0.0
1
Corresponding (maximum) growth rate of nationally financed primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of
discretionary revenue measures, and excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, consistent with achieving the annual
(minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term objective (MTO).
2
A negative (positive) sign indicates that, assuming unchanged policies, net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected
to grow at a rate above (below) the recommended growth rate.
3
Energy support measures less revenue from new (taxes and levies on) windfall profits by energy producers.
4
A negative (positive) sign indicates that net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected to decrease at a rate less than
(more than) the savings made from winding down the energy measures.
5
The fiscal stance is measured as the change in general government primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary
impact of discretionary revenue measures and COVID-19 pandemic-related temporary emergency measures, excluding cyclical
unemployment expenditure, but including the change in expenditure financed by non-repayable support (grants) from the
Recovery and Resilience Facility and other EU funds relative to the medium-term (10-year) average potential nominal GDP growth
rate. A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (a shortfall) of net primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential
GDP growth, corresponding to an expansionary (a contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 1 on page 5 of these
Fiscal Statistical Tables.
Source: Commission 2023 autumn forecast (COM); Commission calculations
34
Greece
Table 5.4: Debt developments
2023 2024
# Variables Outturn
SP DBP COM SP DBP COM
1 Gross debt ratio1 (% of GDP) 172.6 162.6 159.3 160.9 150.8 152.2 151.9
2
2=3+4+8 Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP) -22.4 -8.7 -12.1 -11.7 -11.8 -7.1 -8.9
3
Contributions :
3 Primary balance -0.1 -1.1 -1.1 -1.1 -2.1 -2.1 -2.5
4≈5+6+7 'Snow-ball' effect -21.2 -7.6 -9.0 -8.9 -4.5 -4.3 -4.4
of which:
5 - Interest expenditure 2.5 2.9 3.3 3.5 2.9 3.2 3.3
6 - Real growth effect -9.5 -3.7 -3.7 -3.8 -4.7 -4.6 -3.5
7 - Inflation effect -13.4 -6.6 -8.5 -8.4 -2.7 -2.8 -4.2
8 'Stock-flow' adjustment -1.0 0.0 -2.0 -1.7 -5.2 -0.6 -2.0
1
End of period.
2
DBP ‘change in the ratio’ for 2023 assumes a ‘gross debt ratio’ outturn of 171.3% of GDP (see p. 61 of the DBP). The ‘stock-
flow’ adjustment shown for the DBP in 2023 was adjusted accordingly.
3
The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the
impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The ‘stock-flow
adjustment’ includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant
disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects.
Source: Stability Programme 2023 (SP); Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP); Commission 2023 autumn forecast (COM);
Commission calculations
35
Greece
Table 5.5: Fiscal policy measures taken by general government - revenue side
ESA2010 category 2023 2024
#
(% of GDP) DBP
1 Taxes on production and imports - -
2 Current taxes on income, wealth, etc. - -
3 Social contributions - -
4 Property income - -
5 Capital taxes - -
6 Other - -
7=1+2+3+4+5+6 Total - -
The budgetary impact in the table is the aggregated impact of the measures as reported by the national authorities. A positive
(negative) sign implies that general government revenue increases (decreases) as a consequence of the measures.
Source: Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP)
Table 5.6: Fiscal policy measures taken by general government - expenditure side
ESA2010 category 2023 2024
#
(% of GDP) DBP
1 Compensation of employees - -
2 Intermediate consumption - -
3 Social payments - -
4 Interest expenditure - -
5 Subsidies - -
6 Gross fixed capital formation - -
7 Capital transfers - -
8 Other - -
9=1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8 Total - -
The budgetary impact in the table is the aggregated impact of the measures as reported by the national authorities. A positive
(negative) sign implies that general government expenditure increases (decreases) as a consequence of the measures.
Source: Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP)
36
Greece
Table 5.7: RRF – Grants
# Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
1 RRF grants as included in the revenue projections 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.5 2.0 2.6
2 Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EU 0.0 1.3 0.8 0.8 1.6 1.5 1.9
# Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
1 Total current expenditure 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1
2 Gross fixed capital formation 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.8 1.2 1.7
3 Capital transfers 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8
4=2+3 Total capital expenditure 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 1.2 1.7 2.5
# Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
1 Reduction in tax revenue 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2 Other costs with impact on revenue 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
3 Financial transactions 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
The table shows the data as reported in the Plan, rounded to one decimal place (small figures may therefore be shown as 0.0).
Source: Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024
37
Greece
Table 5.8: RRF – Loans
# Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the Plan (% of GDP)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
1 Disbursements of RRF loans from EU 0.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.8 1.9 1.3
2 Repayments of RRF loans to EU 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
# Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
1 Total current expenditure 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2 Gross fixed capital formation 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
3 Capital transfers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
4=2+3 Total capital expenditure 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
# Other costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
1 Reduction in tax revenue 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2 Other costs with impact on revenue 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
3 Financial transactions 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.8 1.8
The table shows the data as reported in the Plan, rounded to one decimal place (small figures may therefore be shown as 0.0).
Source: Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024
38
6. SPAIN
Table 6.1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts
2022 2023 2024
# Variables
Outturn SP DBP COM SP DBP COM
1=6+7+8 Real GDP (% change) 5.8 2.1 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.0 1.7
2 Private consumption 4.7 2.1 1.5 1.5 3.0 2.5 2.0
3 Gross fixed capital formation 2.4 0.9 3.0 2.4 5.0 4.0 3.4
4 Exports of goods and services 15.2 1.5 3.4 1.9 2.5 2.4 2.8
5 Imports of goods and services 7.0 0.7 1.4 0.2 3.9 3.3 3.5
Contributions to real GDP growth (pps.)
6 - Final domestic demand 3.1 1.7 1.9 1.7 2.9 2.2 1.9
7 - Change in inventories -0.2 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8 - Net exports 2.9 0.4 0.8 0.7 -0.5 -0.2 -0.2
9 Output gap, planned (% of potential GDP) -0.8 0.5 -0.2 0.8
1 0.7 0.6
10 Output gap, recalculated 0.0 -0.6 0.6 0.1 0.6
11 Employment (% change) 2.7 2.2 2.2 1.9 2.6 1.4 1.2
12 Unemployment rate (%) 12.9 12.2 11.8 12.1 10.9 10.9 11.6
13 Labour productivity (% change) 3.0 -0.2 0.2 0.5 -0.3 0.5 0.4
14 HICP inflation (% change) 8.3 n.a. n.a. 3.6 n.a. n.a. 3.4
15 GDP deflator 4.1 4.0 5.9 5.3 3.5 3.6 3.4
16 Comp. of employees (per head, % change) 4.1 4.7 4.8 4.8 3.3 3.7 3.9
Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the
17 1.5 2.4 3.6 2.8 2.1 2.9 2.6
rest of the world (% of GDP)
1
Output gap as recalculated by the Commission services on the basis of the Plan (or Programme) scenario, using the commonly
agreed methodology.
Source: Stability Programme 2023 (SP); Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP); Commission 2023 autumn forecast (COM);
Commission calculations.
39
Spain
Table 6.2: General government budgetary position
Change in ratio:
2022 2023 2024 2022-2024
# Variables (pps. of GDP)
Outturn SP DBP COM SP DBP COM DBP
1=2+3+4+5 Revenue (% of GDP) 42.6 43.4 41.9 42.8 43.3 42.0 43.5 -0.6
of which:
2 - Taxes on production and imports 11.9 11.9 11.3 11.4 12.0 11.4 11.4 -0.5
3 - Current taxes on income, wealth, etc. 12.2 13.2 12.7 12.6 13.5 13.1 12.9 0.9
4 - Social contributions 13.4 13.9 13.5 13.4 14.0 13.6 13.4 0.2
5 - Other (residual) 5.1 4.4 4.4 5.4 3.8 3.9 5.8 -1.2
6 RRF grants as included in the revenue projections 0.4 1.4 1.6 1.0 0.1 n.a. 1.6 n.a.
7 Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants 0.0 n.a. n.a. 0.0 n.a. n.a. 0.0 n.a.
8=9+16 Expenditure (% of GDP) 47.4 47.3 45.8 46.8 46.3 45.0 46.7 -2.4
of which:
9 - Primary expenditure 45.0 44.9 43.4 44.4 43.7 42.5 44.2 -2.5
of which:
10 - Compensation of employees 11.5 11.3 11.1 11.3 11.2 11.0 11.3 -0.5
11 - Intermediate consumption 5.9 5.8 5.7 5.9 5.8 5.7 5.9 -0.2
12 - Social payments 19.8 20.5 19.8 19.8 20.4 19.7 19.8 -0.1
13 - Subsidies 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.8 1.3 1.2 1.5 -0.8
14 - Gross fixed capital formation 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.7 -0.2
15 - Other 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.9 2.4 2.3 2.9 -0.7
16 - Interest expenditure 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.5 0.1
17=6-7 Expenditure financed by RRF grants 0.4 1.4 1.7 1.0 0.1 n.a. 1.6 n.a.
18=1-8 General government balance (% of GDP) -4.7 -3.9 -3.9 -4.1 -3.0 -3.0 -3.2 1.7
19=1-9 Primary balance -2.4 -1.5 -1.4 -1.6 -0.4 -0.4 -0.6 2.0
20 Cyclically adjusted balance (% of GDP) -4.8 -3.4 -4.2 -4.5 -2.9 -3.4 -3.5 1.4
21 One-offs (% of GDP) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
22=20-21 Structural balance (% of GDP) -4.7 -3.4 -4.2 -4.5 -2.9 -3.4 -3.5 1.3
23=22+16 Structural primary balance -2.3 -1.0 -1.8 -2.1 -0.3 -0.9 -1.0 1.4
Source: Stability Programme 2023 (SP); Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP); Commission 2023 autumn forecast (COM);
Commission calculations
40
Spain
Table 6.3: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance
2022 2023 2024
# Variables
Outturn COM COM
Structural fiscal indicators:
1 Structural balance (% of GDP) -4.7 -4.5 -3.5
2 Medium-term budgetary objective (MTO) 0
3 At or above MTO? No
4=2-1 Distance to MTO (pps. of GDP) 3.5
Recommended fiscal adjustment for 2024:
1
Recommended maximum growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (%
5 2.6
change)
6 Projected growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (% change) 2.1
Difference from recommended growth in net nationally financed primary
7=5-6 2 0.5
expenditure (pps.)
3
Total net budgetary cost of energy measures (% of GDP):
8 - level 1.5 0.9 -0.1
9 - change 1.4 -0.6 -1.0
4
10=13+9 Difference between fiscal adjustment and savings from energy measures (pps.) 0.0
Expenditure-based fiscal indicators:
5
11=12+13 Fiscal stance (pps. of GDP) -2.5 -0.3 0.6
of which contribution from:
12 - EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds) 0.1 -0.5 -0.5
13=14+15+16 - Net nationally financed primary expenditure -2.6 0.3 1.1
including:
14 - Net nationally financed primary current expenditure -2.7 0.0 0.8
15 - Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation -0.2 0.1 0.1
16 - Nationally financed other capital expenditure 0.3 0.1 0.2
1
Corresponding (maximum) growth rate of nationally financed primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of
discretionary revenue measures, and excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, consistent with achieving the annual
(minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term objective (MTO).
2
A negative (positive) sign indicates that, assuming unchanged policies, net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected
to grow at a rate above (below) the recommended growth rate.
3
Energy support measures less revenue from new (taxes and levies on) windfall profits by energy producers.
4
A negative (positive) sign indicates that net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected to decrease at a rate less than
(more than) the savings made from winding down the energy measures.
5
The fiscal stance is measured as the change in general government primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary
impact of discretionary revenue measures and COVID-19 pandemic-related temporary emergency measures, excluding cyclical
unemployment expenditure, but including the change in expenditure financed by non-repayable support (grants) from the
Recovery and Resilience Facility and other EU funds relative to the medium-term (10-year) average potential nominal GDP growth
rate. A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (a shortfall) of net primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential
GDP growth, corresponding to an expansionary (a contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 1 on page 5 of these
Fiscal Statistical Tables.
Source: Commission 2023 autumn forecast (COM); Commission calculations
41
Spain
Table 6.4: Debt developments
2023 2024
# Variables Outturn
SP DBP COM SP DBP COM
1 Gross debt ratio1 (% of GDP) 111.6 111.9 108.1 107.5 109.1 106.3 106.5
2=3+4+8 Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP) -5.2 -1.3 -3.5 -4.1 -2.9 -1.8 -1.0
2
Contributions :
3 Primary balance 2.4 1.5 1.4 1.6 0.4 0.4 0.6
4≈5+6+7 'Snow-ball' effect -8.4 -4.1 -6.2 -5.6 -3.6 -3.1 -2.7
of which:
5 - Interest expenditure 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.5
6 - Real growth effect -6.1 -2.2 -2.5 -2.5 -2.5 -2.0 -1.7
7 - Inflation effect -4.4 -4.2 -6.1 -5.4 -3.6 -3.6 -3.4
8 'Stock-flow' adjustment 0.8 1.4 1.4 -0.1 0.4 1.0 1.0
1
End of period.
2
The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the
impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The ‘stock-flow
adjustment’ includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant
disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects.
Source: Stability Programme 2023 (SP); Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP); Commission 2023 autumn forecast (COM);
Commission calculations
42
Spain
Table 6.5: Fiscal policy measures taken by general government - revenue side
ESA2010 category 2023 2024
#
(% of GDP) DBP
1 Taxes on production and imports 0.1 0.1
2 Current taxes on income, wealth, etc. -0.3 -0.1
3 Social contributions 0.2 0.1
4 Property income 0.0 0.0
5 Capital taxes 0.0 0.0
6 Other 0.0 0.0
7=1+2+3+4+5+6 Total 0.1 0.0
The budgetary impact in the table is the aggregated impact of the measures as reported by the national authorities. A positive
(negative) sign implies that general government revenue increases (decreases) as a consequence of the measures.
Source: Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP)
Table 6.6: Fiscal policy measures taken by general government - expenditure side
ESA2010 category 2023 2024
#
(% of GDP) DBP
1 Compensation of employees - -
2 Intermediate consumption - -
3 Social payments - -
4 Interest expenditure - -
5 Subsidies - -
6 Gross fixed capital formation - -
7 Capital transfers - -
8 Other - -
9=1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8 Total - -
The budgetary impact in the table is the aggregated impact of the measures as reported by the national authorities. A positive
(negative) sign implies that general government expenditure increases (decreases) as a consequence of the measures.
Source: Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP)
43
Spain
Table 6.7: RRF – Grants
# Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
1 RRF grants as included in the revenue projections 0.0 1.8 1.9 1.6 0.4 n.a. n.a.
2 Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EU 0.0 1.6 1.3 0.8 0.7 n.a. n.a.
# Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
1 Total current expenditure 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 n.a. n.a.
2 Gross fixed capital formation 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 n.a. n.a.
3 Capital transfers 0.0 1.4 1.6 1.4 0.4 n.a. n.a.
4=2+3 Total capital expenditure 0.0 1.5 1.7 1.5 0.4 n.a. n.a.
# Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
1 Reduction in tax revenue n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
2 Other costs with impact on revenue n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
3 Financial transactions n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
The table shows the data as reported in the Plan, rounded to one decimal place (small figures may therefore be shown as 0.0).
Source: Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024
44
Spain
Table 6.8: RRF – Loans
# Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the Plan (% of GDP)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
1 Disbursements of RRF loans from EU 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4 1.5 n.a. n.a.
2 Repayments of RRF loans to EU n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
# Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
1 Total current expenditure n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
2 Gross fixed capital formation n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
3 Capital transfers n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
4=2+3 Total capital expenditure n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
# Other costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
1 Reduction in tax revenue n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
2 Other costs with impact on revenue n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
3 Financial transactions n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
The table shows the data as reported in the Plan, rounded to one decimal place (small figures may therefore be shown as 0.0).
Source: Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024
45
7. FRANCE
Table 7.1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts
2022 2023 2024
# Variables
Outturn SP DBP COM SP DBP COM
1=6+7+8 Real GDP (% change)1 2.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.6 1.4 1.2
2 Private consumption 2.9 0.2 -0.1 0.8 1.9 1.8 1.4
3 Gross fixed capital formation 2.2 2.1 1.6 2.2 0.9 0.3 1.8
4 Exports of goods and services 7.0 3.5 2.1 1.4 3.6 3.5 2.1
5 Imports of goods and services 8.9 3.1 0.3 0.3 3.0 3.1 2.6
Contributions to real GDP growth (pps.)2
6 - Final domestic demand 2.7 0.9 0.5 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.5
7 - Change in inventories 0.6 0.1 -0.1 -0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0
8 - Net exports -0.7 0.0 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 -0.2
9 Output gap, planned (% of potential GDP) -1.5 -1.2 -1.3 -1.1
2 0.0 0.0
10 Output gap, recalculated 0.2 -0.4 0.0 -0.4 0.2
11 Employment (% change) 2.6 0.8 1.1 1.2 0.6 0.5 0.3
12 Unemployment rate (%) 7.3 n.a. n.a. 7.2 n.a. n.a. 7.4
13 Labour productivity (% change) -0.2 0.2 -0.1 -0.2 1.0 0.9 0.9
14 HICP inflation (% change) 5.9 5.7 5.7 5.8 2.7 2.7 3.0
15 GDP deflator 2.9 5.4 5.7 5.7 2.7 2.5 2.9
16 Comp. of employees (per head, % change) 4.9 4.8 n.a. 5.3 3.0 n.a. 3.3
Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the
17 -3.7 -1.7 -1.9 -2.2 -1.5 -1.6 -2.2
rest of the world (% of GDP)
1
Calendar-adjusted in the SP and the DBP (GDP and GDP components), not calendar-adjusted in the Commission forecast.
2
Output gap as recalculated by the Commission services on the basis of the Plan (or Programme) scenario, using the commonly
agreed methodology.
Source: Stability Programme 2023 (SP); Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP); Commission 2023 autumn forecast (COM);
Commission calculations.
46
France
Table 7.2: General government budgetary position
Change in ratio:
2022 2023 2024 2022-2024
# Variables (pps. of GDP)
Outturn SP DBP COM SP DBP COM DBP
1=2+3+4+5 Revenue (% of GDP) 53.5 51.7 51.5 51.8 51.3 51.6 51.7 -1.9
of which:
2 - Taxes on production and imports 16.7 16.3 16.0 16.1 15.9 15.9 16.0 -0.8
3 - Current taxes on income, wealth, etc. 13.5 13.1 13.0 13.0 13.2 13.3 13.3 -0.2
4 - Social contributions 16.9 16.5 16.6 16.7 16.5 16.6 16.6 -0.3
5 - Other (residual) 6.4 5.8 5.9 6.0 5.7 5.8 5.8 -0.6
6 RRF grants as included in the revenue projections 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 n.a. 0.2 0.1 -0.2
7 Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8=9+16 Expenditure (% of GDP) 58.3 56.6 56.5 56.5 55.7 55.9 56.1 -2.4
of which:
9 - Primary expenditure 56.4 54.9 54.8 54.8 53.8 54.0 54.1 -2.4
of which:
10 - Compensation of employees 12.4 12.2 12.3 12.4 12.1 12.2 12.3 -0.2
11 - Intermediate consumption 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.0 5.1 5.1 5.0 -0.1
12 - Social payments 25.8 24.9 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.1 25.2 -0.7
13 - Subsidies 3.1 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.1 2.1 2.1 -1.0
14 - Gross fixed capital formation 3.7 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.9 3.9 0.2
15 - Other 6.1 6.0 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.6 -0.5
16 - Interest expenditure 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.9 1.9 2.0 0.0
17=6-7 Expenditure financed by RRF grants 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 n.a. 0.1 0.1 -0.3
18=1-8 General government balance (% of GDP) -4.8 -4.9 -4.9 -4.8 -4.4 -4.4 -4.4 0.4
19=1-9 Primary balance -2.9 -3.2 -3.3 -3.1 -2.5 -2.4 -2.4 0.5
20 Cyclically adjusted balance (% of GDP) -4.9 -4.1 -4.2 -4.8 -3.7 -3.7 -4.4 1.2
21 One-offs (% of GDP) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0
22=20-21 Structural balance (% of GDP) -4.9 -4.0 -4.1 -4.7 -3.6 -3.7 -4.4 1.2
23=22+16 Structural primary balance -2.9 -2.3 -2.4 -3.0 -1.7 -1.8 -2.4 1.1
Source: Stability Programme 2023 (SP); Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP); Commission 2023 autumn forecast (COM);
Commission calculations
47
France
Table 7.3: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance
2022 2023 2024
# Variables
Outturn COM COM
Structural fiscal indicators:
1 Structural balance (% of GDP) -4.9 -4.7 -4.4
2 Medium-term budgetary objective (MTO) -0.4
3 At or above MTO? No
4=2-1 Distance to MTO (pps. of GDP) 4.0
Recommended fiscal adjustment for 2024:
1
Recommended maximum growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (%
5 2.3
change)
6 Projected growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (% change) 2.8
Difference from recommended growth in net nationally financed primary
7=5-6 2 -0.6
expenditure (pps.)
3
Total net budgetary cost of energy measures (% of GDP):
8 - level 0.9 0.8 0.3
9 - change 0.8 -0.1 -0.6
4
10=13+9 Difference between fiscal adjustment and savings from energy measures (pps.) 0.0
Expenditure-based fiscal indicators:
5
11=12+13 Fiscal stance (pps. of GDP) -2.2 0.7 0.6
of which contribution from:
12 - EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds) 0.0 0.2 0.1
13=14+15+16 - Net nationally financed primary expenditure -2.2 0.6 0.5
including:
14 - Net nationally financed primary current expenditure -1.7 0.7 0.6
15 - Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation -0.1 -0.2 -0.1
16 - Nationally financed other capital expenditure -0.4 0.0 0.0
1
Corresponding (maximum) growth rate of nationally financed primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of
discretionary revenue measures, and excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, consistent with achieving the annual
(minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term objective (MTO).
2
A negative (positive) sign indicates that, assuming unchanged policies, net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected
to grow at a rate above (below) the recommended growth rate.
3
Energy support measures less revenue from new (taxes and levies on) windfall profits by energy producers.
4
A negative (positive) sign indicates that net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected to decrease at a rate less than
(more than) the savings made from winding down the energy measures.
5
The fiscal stance is measured as the change in general government primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary
impact of discretionary revenue measures and COVID-19 pandemic-related temporary emergency measures, excluding cyclical
unemployment expenditure, but including the change in expenditure financed by non-repayable support (grants) from the
Recovery and Resilience Facility and other EU funds relative to the medium-term (10-year) average potential nominal GDP growth
rate. A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (a shortfall) of net primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential
GDP growth, corresponding to an expansionary (a contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 1 on page 5 of these
Fiscal Statistical Tables.
Source: Commission 2023 autumn forecast (COM); Commission calculations
48
France
Table 7.4: Debt developments
2023 2024
# Variables Outturn
SP DBP COM SP DBP COM
1 Gross debt ratio1 (% of GDP) 111.8 109.6 109.7 109.6 109.5 109.7 109.5
2=3+4+8 Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP) -1.1 -2.0 -2.1 -2.2 -0.1 0.1 -0.1
2
Contributions :
3 Primary balance 2.9 3.2 3.3 3.1 2.5 2.4 2.4
4≈5+6+7 'Snow-ball' effect -3.9 -5.1 -5.5 -5.3 -2.6 -2.2 -2.4
of which:
5 - Interest expenditure 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.9 1.9 2.0
6 - Real growth effect -2.6 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.7 -1.5 -1.3
7 - Inflation effect -3.2 -5.7 -6.0 -5.9 -2.8 -2.7 -3.1
8 'Stock-flow' adjustment 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1
1
End of period.
2
The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the
impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The ‘stock-flow
adjustment’ includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant
disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects.
Source: Stability Programme 2023 (SP); Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP); Commission 2023 autumn forecast (COM);
Commission calculations
49
France
Table 7.5: Fiscal policy measures taken by general government - revenue side
ESA2010 category 2023 2024
#
(% of GDP) DBP
1 Taxes on production and imports n.a. n.a.
2 Current taxes on income, wealth, etc. n.a. n.a.
3 Social contributions n.a. n.a.
4 Property income n.a. n.a.
5 Capital taxes n.a. n.a.
6 Other n.a. n.a.
7=1+2+3+4+5+6 Total n.a. n.a.
The budgetary impact in the table is the aggregated impact of the measures as reported by the national authorities. A positive
(negative) sign implies that general government revenue increases (decreases) as a consequence of the measures.
Source: Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP)
Table 7.6: Fiscal policy measures taken by general government - expenditure side
ESA2010 category 2023 2024
#
(% of GDP) DBP
1 Compensation of employees n.a. n.a.
2 Intermediate consumption n.a. n.a.
3 Social payments n.a. n.a.
4 Interest expenditure n.a. n.a.
5 Subsidies n.a. n.a.
6 Gross fixed capital formation n.a. n.a.
7 Capital transfers n.a. n.a.
8 Other n.a. n.a.
9=1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8 Total n.a. n.a.
The budgetary impact in the table is the aggregated impact of the measures as reported by the national authorities. A positive
(negative) sign implies that general government expenditure increases (decreases) as a consequence of the measures.
Source: Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP)
50
France
Table 7.7: RRF – Grants
# Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
1 RRF grants as included in the revenue projections 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
2 Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EU 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.2
# Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
1 Total current expenditure 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2 Gross fixed capital formation 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
3 Capital transfers 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
4=2+3 Total capital expenditure 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
# Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
1 Reduction in tax revenue 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2 Other costs with impact on revenue 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
3 Financial transactions 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
The table shows the data as reported in the Plan, rounded to one decimal place (small figures may therefore be shown as 0.0).
Source: Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024
51
8. CROATIA
Table 8.1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts
2022 2023 2024
# Variables
Outturn SP DBP COM SP DBP COM
1=6+7+8 Real GDP (% change) 6.3 2.2 2.8 2.6 2.6 2.8 2.5
2 Private consumption 6.7 1.3 2.6 3.7 2.6 3.2 2.8
3 Gross fixed capital formation 0.1 4.6 3.1 4.2 3.7 3.2 3.4
4 Exports of goods and services 27.0 2.7 -1.4 -0.4 2.9 2.2 3.2
5 Imports of goods and services 26.5 2.8 -4.1 -5.6 3.0 2.7 2.2
Contributions to real GDP growth (pps.)
6 - Final domestic demand 4.5 2.3 3.0 3.8 2.8 3.0 2.8
7 - Change in inventories 2.4 0.1 -2.1 -4.7 0.0 0.0 -0.9
8 - Net exports -0.5 -0.2 1.8 3.4 -0.1 -0.3 0.5
9 Output gap, planned (% of potential GDP) 2.0 2.0 1.6 1.5
1 2.0 1.0
10 Output gap, recalculated 3.4 1.9 2.1 1.0 1.4
11 Employment (% change) 2.3 2.0 2.4 2.1 1.5 1.8 1.1
12 Unemployment rate (%) 7.0 6.5 6.1 6.5 5.9 5.7 6.2
13 Labour productivity (% change) 3.9 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.1 0.9 1.4
14 HICP inflation (% change) 10.7 6.6 8.0 8.1 2.8 3.1 2.4
15 GDP deflator 9.5 7.9 9.4 9.4 3.7 4.4 3.6
16 Comp. of employees (per head, % change) 11.4 10.8 12.9 10.4 5.2 6.5 4.8
Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the
17 -0.3 0.0 0.0 5.4 0.0 0.0 4.8
rest of the world (% of GDP)
1
Output gap as recalculated by the Commission services on the basis of the Plan (or Programme) scenario, using the commonly
agreed methodology.
Source: Stability Programme 2023 (SP); Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP); Commission 2023 autumn forecast (COM);
Commission calculations.
52
Croatia
Table 8.2: General government budgetary position
Change in ratio:
2022 2023 2024 2022-2024
# Variables (pps. of GDP)
Outturn SP DBP COM SP DBP COM DBP
1=2+3+4+5 Revenue (% of GDP) 45.0 45.2 45.7 45.3 44.4 44.4 44.7 -0.6
of which:
2 - Taxes on production and imports 19.0 18.2 19.3 19.3 18.2 19.1 19.2 0.0
3 - Current taxes on income, wealth, etc. 7.2 6.3 7.2 7.2 6.3 7.0 7.1 -0.3
4 - Social contributions 10.8 11.2 10.9 10.8 11.3 10.8 10.7 0.0
5 - Other (residual) 8.0 9.4 8.3 8.0 8.7 7.6 7.7 -0.4
6 RRF grants as included in the revenue projections 0.3 1.2 0.9 1.0 1.7 1.6 1.8 1.3
7 Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8=9+16 Expenditure (% of GDP) 44.9 45.8 46.0 45.5 46.0 46.4 46.5 1.4
of which:
9 - Primary expenditure 43.5 44.5 44.6 44.3 44.7 44.9 45.4 1.3
of which:
10 - Compensation of employees 11.2 11.4 11.4 11.5 11.9 12.1 12.2 0.9
11 - Intermediate consumption 7.6 7.6 7.8 7.8 7.5 7.7 7.7 0.1
12 - Social payments 14.0 14.3 14.0 14.0 14.2 14.8 14.9 0.8
13 - Subsidies 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.3 1.6 1.7 1.6 -0.5
14 - Gross fixed capital formation 3.8 4.6 4.8 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.5 0.8
15 - Other 4.8 4.3 4.0 4.1 5.0 4.1 4.5 -0.7
16 - Interest expenditure 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.1 0.1
17=6-7 Expenditure financed by RRF grants 0.3 1.2 0.9 0.9 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.3
18=1-8 General government balance (% of GDP) 0.1 -0.7 -0.3 -0.1 -1.5 -1.9 -1.8 -2.0
19=1-9 Primary balance 1.5 0.6 1.2 1.0 -0.3 -0.5 -0.7 -1.9
20 Cyclically adjusted balance (% of GDP) -1.4 -1.6 -1.2 -1.0 -2.3 -2.6 -2.3 -1.3
21 One-offs (% of GDP) -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
22=20-21 Structural balance (% of GDP) -1.1 -1.6 -1.2 -1.0 -2.3 -2.6 -2.3 -1.6
23=22+16 Structural primary balance 0.3 -0.3 0.2 0.1 -1.0 -1.2 -1.2 -1.5
Source: Stability Programme 2023 (SP); Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP); Commission 2023 autumn forecast (COM);
Commission calculations
53
Croatia
Table 8.3: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance
2022 2023 2024
# Variables
Outturn COM COM
Structural fiscal indicators:
1 Structural balance (% of GDP) -1.1 -1.0 -2.3
2 Medium-term budgetary objective (MTO) -1
3 At or above MTO? No
4=2-1 Distance to MTO (pps. of GDP) 1.3
Recommended fiscal adjustment for 2024:
1
Recommended maximum growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (%
5 5.1
change)
6 Projected growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (% change) 10.4
Difference from recommended growth in net nationally financed primary
7=5-6 2 -5.3
expenditure (pps.)
3
Total net budgetary cost of energy measures (% of GDP):
8 - level 1.5 1.8 0.5
9 - change 1.5 0.2 -1.3
4
10=13+9 Difference between fiscal adjustment and savings from energy measures (pps.) -2.8
Expenditure-based fiscal indicators:
5
11=12+13 Fiscal stance (pps. of GDP) 0.3 -0.9 -1.2
of which contribution from:
12 - EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds) 0.2 -0.4 0.3
13=14+15+16 - Net nationally financed primary expenditure 0.2 -0.5 -1.5
including:
14 - Net nationally financed primary current expenditure 0.4 -0.5 -0.8
15 - Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation 0.7 -0.5 -0.4
16 - Nationally financed other capital expenditure -1.0 0.6 -0.2
1
Corresponding (maximum) growth rate of nationally financed primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of
discretionary revenue measures, and excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, consistent with achieving the annual
(minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term objective (MTO).
2
A negative (positive) sign indicates that, assuming unchanged policies, net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected
to grow at a rate above (below) the recommended growth rate.
3
Energy support measures less revenue from new (taxes and levies on) windfall profits by energy producers.
4
A negative (positive) sign indicates that net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected to decrease at a rate less than
(more than) the savings made from winding down the energy measures.
5
The fiscal stance is measured as the change in general government primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary
impact of discretionary revenue measures and COVID-19 pandemic-related temporary emergency measures, excluding cyclical
unemployment expenditure, but including the change in expenditure financed by non-repayable support (grants) from the
Recovery and Resilience Facility and other EU funds relative to the medium-term (10-year) average potential nominal GDP growth
rate. A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (a shortfall) of net primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential
GDP growth, corresponding to an expansionary (a contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 1 on page 5 of these
Fiscal Statistical Tables.
Source: Commission 2023 autumn forecast (COM); Commission calculations
54
Croatia
Table 8.4: Debt developments
2023 2024
# Variables Outturn
SP DBP COM SP DBP COM
1 Gross debt ratio1 (% of GDP) 68.2 62.6 60.7 60.8 59.8 58.0 58.8
2=3+4+8 Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP) -10.0 -5.8 -7.4 -7.4 -2.8 -2.7 -2.0
2
Contributions :
3 Primary balance -1.5 -0.6 -1.2 -1.0 0.3 0.5 0.7
4≈5+6+7 'Snow-ball' effect -9.6 -5.1 -6.1 -6.2 -2.5 -2.7 -2.4
of which:
5 - Interest expenditure 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.1
6 - Real growth effect -4.3 -1.4 -1.7 -1.6 -1.6 -1.6 -1.4
7 - Inflation effect -6.4 -4.9 -5.7 -5.7 -2.2 -2.5 -2.0
8 'Stock-flow' adjustment 1.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.5 -0.5 -0.3
1
End of period.
2
The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the
impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The ‘stock-flow
adjustment’ includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant
disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects.
Source: Stability Programme 2023 (SP); Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP); Commission 2023 autumn forecast (COM);
Commission calculations
55
Croatia
Table 8.5: Fiscal policy measures taken by general government - revenue side
ESA2010 category 2023 2024
#
(% of GDP) DBP
1 Taxes on production and imports 0.0 0.1
2 Current taxes on income, wealth, etc. -0.3 -0.1
3 Social contributions 0.0 -0.3
4 Property income - -
5 Capital taxes - -
6 Other - -
7=1+2+3+4+5+6 Total -0.3 -0.3
The budgetary impact in the table is the aggregated impact of the measures as reported by the national authorities. A positive
(negative) sign implies that general government revenue increases (decreases) as a consequence of the measures.
Source: Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP)
Table 8.6: Fiscal policy measures taken by general government - expenditure side
ESA2010 category 2023 2024
#
(% of GDP) DBP
1 Compensation of employees - -
2 Intermediate consumption -0.1 -0.2
3 Social payments 0.0 -0.3
4 Interest expenditure 0.0 -0.1
5 Subsidies 0.7 -0.9
6 Gross fixed capital formation - -
7 Capital transfers 0.0 0.0
8 Other 0.1 -0.1
9=1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8 Total 0.7 -1.5
The budgetary impact in the table is the aggregated impact of the measures as reported by the national authorities. A positive
(negative) sign implies that general government expenditure increases (decreases) as a consequence of the measures.
Source: Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP)
56
Croatia
Table 8.7: RRF – Grants
# Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
1 RRF grants as included in the revenue projections 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.6 n.a. n.a.
2 Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EU 0.0 1.4 2.1 0.9 1.3 n.a. n.a.
# Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
1 Total current expenditure 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 n.a. n.a.
2 Gross fixed capital formation 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 n.a. n.a.
3 Capital transfers 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 n.a. n.a.
4=2+3 Total capital expenditure 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 n.a. n.a.
# Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
1 Reduction in tax revenue 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 n.a. n.a.
2 Other costs with impact on revenue 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 n.a. n.a.
3 Financial transactions 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 n.a. n.a.
The table shows the data as reported in the Plan, rounded to one decimal place (small figures may therefore be shown as 0.0).
Source: Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024
57
Croatia
Table 8.8: RRF – Loans
# Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the Plan (% of GDP)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
1 Disbursements of RRF loans from EU 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 n.a. n.a.
2 Repayments of RRF loans to EU 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 n.a. n.a.
# Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
1 Total current expenditure 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 n.a. n.a.
2 Gross fixed capital formation 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 n.a. n.a.
3 Capital transfers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 n.a. n.a.
4=2+3 Total capital expenditure 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 n.a. n.a.
# Other costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
1 Reduction in tax revenue 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 n.a. n.a.
2 Other costs with impact on revenue 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 n.a. n.a.
3 Financial transactions 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 n.a. n.a.
The table shows the data as reported in the Plan, rounded to one decimal place (small figures may therefore be shown as 0.0).
Source: Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024
58
9. ITALY
Table 9.1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts
2022 2023 2024
# Variables
Outturn SP DBP COM SP DBP COM
1=6+7+8 Real GDP (% change) 3.7 1.0 0.8 0.7 1.5 1.2 0.9
2 Private consumption 5.0 0.7 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.0
3 Gross fixed capital formation 9.7 3.8 1.0 0.6 3.4 3.0 0.1
4 Exports of goods and services 9.9 3.2 0.7 0.5 3.8 2.4 2.5
5 Imports of goods and services 12.4 2.5 0.1 1.1 3.8 3.3 2.1
Contributions to real GDP growth (pps.)
6 - Final domestic demand 5.0 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.3 0.7
7 - Change in inventories -0.7 -0.1 -0.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
8 - Net exports -0.5 0.3 0.2 -0.2 0.1 -0.2 0.2
9 Output gap, planned (% of potential GDP) 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.7
1 1.2 1.2
10 Output gap, recalculated 1.5 0.6 1.0 0.8 1.2
11 Employment (% change) 1.7 0.9 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.3
12 Unemployment rate (%) 8.1 7.7 7.6 7.6 7.5 7.3 7.4
13 Labour productivity (% change) 2.0 0.1 -0.4 -0.4 0.5 0.4 0.6
14 HICP inflation (% change) 8.7 5.9 6.1 6.1 2.8 2.5 2.7
15 GDP deflator 3.0 4.8 4.5 4.9 2.7 2.9 2.7
16 Comp. of employees (per head, % change) 4.7 3.1 4.0 3.8 2.2 2.3 4.3
Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the
17 -1.0 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.0
rest of the world (% of GDP)
1
Output gap as recalculated by the Commission services on the basis of the Plan (or Programme) scenario, using the commonly
agreed methodology.
Source: Stability Programme 2023 (SP); Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP); Commission 2023 autumn forecast (COM);
Commission calculations.
59
Italy
Table 9.2: General government budgetary position
Change in ratio:
2022 2023 2024 2022-2024
# Variables (pps. of GDP)
Outturn SP DBP COM SP DBP COM DBP
1=2+3+4+5 Revenue (% of GDP) 48.0 48.9 47.9 47.8 47.7 46.4 46.8 -1.6
of which:
2 - Taxes on production and imports 14.2 15.0 14.2 14.1 15.0 14.3 14.2 0.1
3 - Current taxes on income, wealth, etc. 15.0 14.6 15.1 15.2 14.2 14.3 14.6 -0.7
4 - Social contributions 13.4 13.6 13.2 13.1 13.7 13.0 13.1 -0.4
5 - Other (residual) 5.5 5.7 5.4 5.4 4.8 4.8 4.8 -0.7
6 RRF grants as included in the revenue projections 0.7 n.a. n.a. 0.7 n.a. n.a. 0.6 n.a.
7 Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants 0.0 n.a. n.a. 0.0 n.a. n.a. 0.0 n.a.
8=9+16 Expenditure (% of GDP) 56.1 53.2 53.3 53.1 51.2 50.7 51.1 -5.4
of which:
9 - Primary expenditure 51.8 49.5 49.5 49.3 47.1 46.5 47.0 -5.3
of which:
10 - Compensation of employees 9.6 9.4 9.3 9.3 8.9 9.0 9.0 -0.6
11 - Intermediate consumption 6.1 6.0 5.8 5.9 5.6 5.8 5.8 -0.3
12 - Social payments 23.4 23.6 23.2 23.1 23.6 23.3 23.5 -0.1
13 - Subsidies 2.6 2.6 2.5 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.6 -0.8
14 - Gross fixed capital formation 2.7 3.3 2.9 2.8 3.8 3.2 3.3 0.5
15 - Other 7.4 4.6 5.8 6.2 3.4 3.4 3.8 -4.0
16 - Interest expenditure 4.3 3.7 3.8 3.8 4.1 4.2 4.2 -0.1
17=6-7 Expenditure financed by RRF grants 0.7 n.a. n.a. 0.7 n.a. n.a. 0.6 n.a.
18=1-8 General government balance (% of GDP) -8.0 -4.5 -5.3 -5.3 -3.7 -4.3 -4.4 3.7
19=1-9 Primary balance -3.8 -0.6 -1.5 -1.4 0.5 -0.2 -0.2 3.6
20 Cyclically adjusted balance (% of GDP) -8.8 -4.8 -5.7 -5.9 -4.2 -4.7 -5.0 4.1
21 One-offs (% of GDP) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.3
22=20-21 Structural balance (% of GDP) -9.1 -4.9 -5.9 -6.1 -4.1 -4.8 -5.1 4.3
23=22+16 Structural primary balance -4.9 -1.2 -2.1 -2.3 0.0 -0.6 -0.9 4.3
Source: Stability Programme 2023 (SP); Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP); Commission 2023 autumn forecast (COM);
Commission calculations
60
Italy
Table 9.3: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance
2022 2023 2024
# Variables
Outturn COM COM
Structural fiscal indicators:
1 Structural balance (% of GDP) -9.1 -6.1 -5.1
2 Medium-term budgetary objective (MTO) 0.25
3 At or above MTO? No
4=2-1 Distance to MTO (pps. of GDP) 5.3
Recommended fiscal adjustment for 2024:
1
Recommended maximum growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (%
5 1.3
change)
6 Projected growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (% change) 0.9
Difference from recommended growth in net nationally financed primary
7=5-6 2 0.5
expenditure (pps.)
3
Total net budgetary cost of energy measures (% of GDP):
8 - level 2.4 1.0 0.0
9 - change 2.1 -1.4 -1.0
4
10=13+9 Difference between fiscal adjustment and savings from energy measures (pps.) 0.1
Expenditure-based fiscal indicators:
5
11=12+13 Fiscal stance (pps. of GDP) -3.5 1.6 1.6
of which contribution from:
12 - EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds) -0.4 -0.3 0.5
13=14+15+16 - Net nationally financed primary expenditure -3.1 2.0 1.1
including:
14 - Net nationally financed primary current expenditure -2.4 0.8 -0.1
15 - Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation -0.1 0.1 -0.4
16 - Nationally financed other capital expenditure -0.6 1.1 1.6
1
Corresponding (maximum) growth rate of nationally financed primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of
discretionary revenue measures, and excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, consistent with achieving the annual
(minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term objective (MTO).
2
A negative (positive) sign indicates that, assuming unchanged policies, net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected
to grow at a rate above (below) the recommended growth rate.
3
Energy support measures less revenue from new (taxes and levies on) windfall profits by energy producers.
4
A negative (positive) sign indicates that net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected to decrease at a rate less than
(more than) the savings made from winding down the energy measures.
5
The fiscal stance is measured as the change in general government primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary
impact of discretionary revenue measures and COVID-19 pandemic-related temporary emergency measures, excluding cyclical
unemployment expenditure, but including the change in expenditure financed by non-repayable support (grants) from the
Recovery and Resilience Facility and other EU funds relative to the medium-term (10-year) average potential nominal GDP growth
rate. A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (a shortfall) of net primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential
GDP growth, corresponding to an expansionary (a contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 1 on page 5 of these
Fiscal Statistical Tables.
Source: Commission 2023 autumn forecast (COM); Commission calculations
61
Italy
Table 9.4: Debt developments
2023 2024
# Variables Outturn
SP DBP COM SP DBP COM
1 Gross debt ratio1 (% of GDP) 141.7 142.1 140.2 139.8 141.4 140.1 140.6
2=3+4+8 Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP) -5.4 -2.3 -1.5 -1.8 -0.7 -0.1 0.7
2
Contributions :
3 Primary balance 3.8 0.8 1.5 1.4 -0.3 0.2 0.2
4≈5+6+7 'Snow-ball' effect -5.1 -4.1 -3.3 -3.7 -1.9 -1.4 -0.6
of which:
5 - Interest expenditure 4.3 3.7 3.8 3.8 4.1 4.2 4.2
6 - Real growth effect -5.1 -1.4 -1.1 -0.9 -2.0 -1.6 -1.2
7 - Inflation effect -4.1 -6.5 -6.0 -6.6 -3.8 -3.9 -3.6
8 'Stock-flow' adjustment -4.0 1.1 0.4 0.4 1.4 1.2 1.2
1
End of period.
2
The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the
impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The ‘stock-flow
adjustment’ includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant
disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects.
Source: Stability Programme 2023 (SP); Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP); Commission 2023 autumn forecast (COM);
Commission calculations
62
Italy
Table 9.5: Fiscal policy measures taken by general government - revenue side
ESA2010 category 2023 2024
#
(% of GDP) DBP
1 Taxes on production and imports 0.0 0.0
2 Current taxes on income, wealth, etc. 0.0 0.0
3 Social contributions 0.0 0.0
4 Property income 0.0 -0.6
5 Capital taxes 0.0 0.0
6 Other 0.0 0.0
7=1+2+3+4+5+6 Total 0.1 -0.7
The budgetary impact in the table is the aggregated impact of the measures as reported by the national authorities. A positive
(negative) sign implies that general government revenue increases (decreases) as a consequence of the measures.
Source: Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP)
Table 9.6: Fiscal policy measures taken by general government - expenditure side
ESA2010 category 2023 2024
#
(% of GDP) DBP
1 Compensation of employees 0.1 0.3
2 Intermediate consumption 0.0 0.1
3 Social payments 0.1 -0.1
4 Interest expenditure 0.0 0.0
5 Subsidies 0.0 0.0
6 Gross fixed capital formation 0.1 -0.1
7 Capital transfers 0.0 0.1
8 Other 0.0 -0.2
9=1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8 Total 0.2 0.1
The budgetary impact in the table is the aggregated impact of the measures as reported by the national authorities. A positive
(negative) sign implies that general government expenditure increases (decreases) as a consequence of the measures.
Source: Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP)
63
Italy
Table 9.7: RRF – Grants
# Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2020-2026
1 RRF grants as included in the revenue projections n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 3.3
2 Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EU n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 3.4
# Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2020-2026
1 Total current expenditure n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.8
2 Gross fixed capital formation n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.9
3 Capital transfers n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 1.5
4=2+3 Total capital expenditure n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 2.5
# Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2020-2026
1 Reduction in tax revenue n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.0
2 Other costs with impact on revenue n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.0
3 Financial transactions n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.0
The Draft Budgetary Plan submitted by Italy did not include annual figures on revenue from and expenditure financed by
Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) grants. The table shows the data as reported in the Plan, rounded to one decimal place
(small figures may therefore be shown as 0.0).
Source: Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024
64
Italy
Table 9.8: RRF – Loans
# Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the Plan (% of GDP)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2020-2026
1 Disbursements of RRF loans from EU n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 5.9
2 Repayments of RRF loans to EU n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.0
# Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2020-2026
1 Total current expenditure n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.4
2 Gross fixed capital formation n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 3.9
3 Capital transfers n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 1.2
4=2+3 Total capital expenditure n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 5.1
# Other costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2020-2026
1 Reduction in tax revenue n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.0
2 Other costs with impact on revenue n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.0
3 Financial transactions n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.1
The Draft Budgetary Plan submitted by Italy did not include annual figures on cash flow from and expenditure financed by
Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) loans. The table shows the data as reported in the Plan, rounded to one decimal place
(small figures may therefore be shown as 0.0).
Source: Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024
65
10. CYPRUS
Table 10.1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts
2022 2023 2024
# Variables
Outturn SP DBP COM SP DBP COM
1=6+7+8 Real GDP (% change) 5.1 2.8 2.4 2.2 3.0 2.9 2.6
2 Private consumption 8.5 2.2 3.5 4.1 1.8 1.8 2.0
3 Gross fixed capital formation 7.8 1.7 6.0 4.1 6.3 5.6 2.7
4 Exports of goods and services 13.6 3.7 -2.6 -0.8 3.1 1.6 3.0
5 Imports of goods and services 18.3 2.7 -0.9 1.5 2.9 1.8 2.6
Contributions to real GDP growth (pps.)
6 - Final domestic demand 6.9 2.1 4.1 4.3 2.9 3.2 2.3
7 - Change in inventories 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8 - Net exports -3.4 0.9 -1.5 -2.1 0.1 -0.3 0.3
9 Output gap, planned (% of potential GDP) 1.3 1.2 0.9 0.8
1 2.1 1.3
10 Output gap, recalculated 3.7 1.4 2.4 0.6 1.7
11 Employment (% change) 3.0 1.0 1.3 1.8 1.4 1.0 1.6
12 Unemployment rate (%) 6.8 6.5 6.4 6.4 5.8 5.8 6.1
13 Labour productivity (% change) 2.0 1.8 1.1 0.5 1.6 1.9 1.0
14 HICP inflation (% change) 8.1 3.2 4.1 4.1 2.5 2.5 3.0
15 GDP deflator 6.1 3.8 4.5 5.8 2.4 2.7 3.3
16 Comp. of employees (per head, % change) 1.1 8.0 4.7 5.0 5.2 4.4 4.0
Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the
17 -7.7 -7.5 -9.1 -9.0 -7.0 -8.5 -8.2
rest of the world (% of GDP)
1
Output gap as recalculated by the Commission services on the basis of the Plan (or Programme) scenario, using the commonly
agreed methodology.
Source: Stability Programme 2023 (SP); Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP); Commission 2023 autumn forecast (COM);
Commission calculations.
66
Cyprus
Table 10.2: General government budgetary position
Change in ratio:
2022 2023 2024 2022-2024
# Variables (pps. of GDP)
Outturn SP DBP COM SP DBP COM DBP
1=2+3+4+5 Revenue (% of GDP) 41.2 42.2 44.7 42.4 42.7 45.3 43.3 4.1
of which:
2 - Taxes on production and imports 14.5 14.7 15.2 14.8 14.6 15.1 14.6 0.6
3 - Current taxes on income, wealth, etc. 10.5 10.7 11.3 10.9 10.7 11.3 10.9 0.8
4 - Social contributions 11.2 11.7 12.2 11.7 12.4 13.0 12.5 1.8
5 - Other (residual) 5.0 5.1 6.0 5.0 5.0 5.9 5.4 1.0
6 RRF grants as included in the revenue projections 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7
7 Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8=9+16 Expenditure (% of GDP) 38.8 40.2 42.2 40.1 40.4 42.5 41.2 3.7
of which:
9 - Primary expenditure 37.3 39.0 40.9 38.7 39.0 41.1 39.8 3.7
of which:
10 - Compensation of employees 11.4 11.9 12.3 11.8 11.9 12.4 12.0 1.0
11 - Intermediate consumption 4.5 4.6 5.4 4.4 4.6 5.4 4.5 1.0
12 - Social payments 15.2 15.8 16.0 15.7 16.1 16.3 15.8 1.2
13 - Subsidies 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.2
14 - Gross fixed capital formation 2.6 3.0 3.2 3.1 2.8 3.0 3.7 0.5
15 - Other 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.1 3.2 3.1 3.1 -0.1
16 - Interest expenditure 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.4 0.0
17=6-7 Expenditure financed by RRF grants 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.4 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.6
18=1-8 General government balance (% of GDP) 2.4 2.0 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.8 2.1 0.4
19=1-9 Primary balance 3.9 3.2 3.9 3.7 3.7 4.3 3.5 0.4
20 Cyclically adjusted balance (% of GDP) 0.6 1.3 1.9 1.2 1.9 2.5 1.4 1.9
21 One-offs (% of GDP) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.6 0.0
22=20-21 Structural balance (% of GDP) 0.6 1.3 1.9 1.2 1.9 2.5 2.0 1.9
23=22+16 Structural primary balance 2.0 2.6 3.3 2.6 3.2 3.9 3.4 1.9
Source: Stability Programme 2023 (SP); Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP); Commission 2023 autumn forecast (COM);
Commission calculations
67
Cyprus
Table 10.3: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance
2022 2023 2024
# Variables
Outturn COM COM
Structural fiscal indicators:
1 Structural balance (% of GDP) 0.6 1.2 2.0
2 Medium-term budgetary objective (MTO) 0
3 At or above MTO? Yes
4=2-1 Distance to MTO (pps. of GDP) n.a.
Recommended fiscal adjustment for 2024:
1
Recommended maximum growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (%
5 na.
change)
6 Projected growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (% change) 4.3
Difference from recommended growth in net nationally financed primary
7=5-6 2 n.a.
expenditure (pps.)
3
Total net budgetary cost of energy measures (% of GDP):
8 - level 0.6 0.5 0.0
9 - change 0.6 -0.1 -0.5
4
10=13+9 Difference between fiscal adjustment and savings from energy measures (pps.) 0.4
Expenditure-based fiscal indicators:
5
11=12+13 Fiscal stance (pps. of GDP) 0.2 -0.9 0.4
of which contribution from:
12 - EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds) -0.6 0.3 -0.5
13=14+15+16 - Net nationally financed primary expenditure 0.8 -1.2 0.9
including:
14 - Net nationally financed primary current expenditure 0.6 -0.7 0.6
15 - Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation 0.3 -0.6 0.2
16 - Nationally financed other capital expenditure -0.1 0.0 0.0
1
Corresponding (maximum) growth rate of nationally financed primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of
discretionary revenue measures, and excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, consistent with achieving the annual
(minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term objective (MTO).
2
A negative (positive) sign indicates that, assuming unchanged policies, net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected
to grow at a rate above (below) the recommended growth rate.
3
Energy support measures less revenue from new (taxes and levies on) windfall profits by energy producers.
4
A negative (positive) sign indicates that net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected to decrease at a rate less than
(more than) the savings made from winding down the energy measures.
5
The fiscal stance is measured as the change in general government primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary
impact of discretionary revenue measures and COVID-19 pandemic-related temporary emergency measures, excluding cyclical
unemployment expenditure, but including the change in expenditure financed by non-repayable support (grants) from the
Recovery and Resilience Facility and other EU funds relative to the medium-term (10-year) average potential nominal GDP growth
rate. A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (a shortfall) of net primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential
GDP growth, corresponding to an expansionary (a contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 1 on page 5 of these
Fiscal Statistical Tables.
Source: Commission 2023 autumn forecast (COM); Commission calculations
68
Cyprus
Table 10.4: Debt developments
2023 2024
# Variables Outturn
SP DBP COM SP DBP COM
1 Gross debt ratio1 (% of GDP) 85.6 81.1 81.8 78.4 72.9 74.7 71.5
2
2=3+4+8 Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP) -13.7 -5.4 -6.4 -7.1 -8.2 -7.1 -7.0
3
Contributions :
3 Primary balance -3.9 -3.2 -3.9 -3.7 -3.7 -4.3 -3.5
4≈5+6+7 'Snow-ball' effect -8.7 -4.2 -4.3 -5.1 -3.0 -3.0 -3.1
of which:
5 - Interest expenditure 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.4
6 - Real growth effect -4.5 -2.3 -1.9 -1.8 -2.3 -2.3 -1.9
7 - Inflation effect -5.4 -3.1 -3.6 -4.6 -1.9 -2.1 -2.5
8 'Stock-flow' adjustment -1.1 2.0 1.8 1.7 -1.6 0.2 -0.4
1
End of period.
2
DBP ‘change in the ratio’ for 2023 assumes a ‘gross debt ratio’ outturn of 88.2% of GDP (see p. 9 of the DBP). The ‘stock-flow’
adjustment shown for the DBP in 2023 was adjusted accordingly.
3
The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the
impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The ‘stock-flow
adjustment’ includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant
disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects.
Source: Stability Programme 2023 (SP); Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP); Commission 2023 autumn forecast (COM);
Commission calculations
69
Cyprus
Table 10.5: Fiscal policy measures taken by general government - revenue side
ESA2010 category 2023 2024
#
(% of GDP) DBP
1 Taxes on production and imports -0.1 0.0
2 Current taxes on income, wealth, etc. - -
3 Social contributions - -
4 Property income - -
5 Capital taxes - -
6 Other - -
7=1+2+3+4+5+6 Total -0.1 0.0
The budgetary impact in the table is the aggregated impact of the measures as reported by the national authorities. A positive
(negative) sign implies that general government revenue increases (decreases) as a consequence of the measures.
Source: Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP)
Table 10.6: Fiscal policy measures taken by general government - expenditure side
ESA2010 category 2023 2024
#
(% of GDP) DBP
1 Compensation of employees 0.2 0.1
2 Intermediate consumption 0.1 0.0
3 Social payments 0.1 -0.1
4 Interest expenditure - -
5 Subsidies - -
6 Gross fixed capital formation 0.3 -0.3
7 Capital transfers - -
8 Other - -
9=1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8 Total 0.6 -0.3
The budgetary impact in the table is the aggregated impact of the measures as reported by the national authorities. A positive
(negative) sign implies that general government expenditure increases (decreases) as a consequence of the measures.
Source: Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP)
70
Cyprus
Table 10.7: RRF – Grants
# Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
1 RRF grants as included in the revenue projections n.a. 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.0 0.5
2 Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EU n.a. 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.8 0.7 0.7
# Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
1 Total current expenditure 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1
2 Gross fixed capital formation 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2
3 Capital transfers n.a. 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1
4=2+3 Total capital expenditure 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.3
# Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
1 Reduction in tax revenue 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2 Other costs with impact on revenue 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
3 Financial transactions 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
The table shows the data as reported in the Plan, rounded to one decimal place (small figures may therefore be shown as 0.0).
Source: Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024
71
Cyprus
Table 10.8: RRF – Loans
# Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the Plan (% of GDP)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
1 Disbursements of RRF loans from EU n.a. 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0
2 Repayments of RRF loans to EU 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
# Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
1 Total current expenditure n.a. n.a. 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
2 Gross fixed capital formation n.a. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2
3 Capital transfers n.a. n.a. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
4=2+3 Total capital expenditure n.a. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2
# Other costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
1 Reduction in tax revenue 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2 Other costs with impact on revenue 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
3 Financial transactions 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
The table shows the data as reported in the Plan, rounded to one decimal place (small figures may therefore be shown as 0.0).
Source: Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024
72
11. LATVIA
Table 11.1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts
2022 2023 2024
# Variables
Outturn SP DBP COM SP DBP COM
1=6+7+8 Real GDP (% change) 3.4 0.0 1.0 -0.2 2.0 2.5 2.4
2 Private consumption 6.0 -0.9 1.1 -1.7 2.1 2.6 2.9
3 Gross fixed capital formation 0.6 1.0 6.1 6.0 4.8 3.1 3.5
4 Exports of goods and services 10.3 0.0 0.0 -3.2 4.3 3.7 1.7
5 Imports of goods and services 11.1 0.5 2.5 -1.1 3.9 3.4 2.9
Contributions to real GDP growth (pps.)
6 - Final domestic demand 4.1 -0.1 3.0 1.2 2.6 2.7 3.3
7 - Change in inventories 0.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.1 0.0
8 - Net exports -0.9 -0.4 -2.0 -1.4 -0.3 -0.1 -0.9
9 Output gap, planned (% of potential GDP) -1.5 -1.2 -1.4 -1.3
1 -1.3 -1.0
10 Output gap, recalculated 1.1 -1.6 -0.7 -1.5 -0.5
11 Employment (% change) 2.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2
12 Unemployment rate (%) 6.9 7.1 6.5 6.8 6.8 6.6 6.6
13 Labour productivity (% change) 0.6 0.0 0.9 -0.7 2.2 2.5 2.2
14 HICP inflation (% change) 17.2 10.0 10.0 9.6 2.2 2.2 3.2
15 GDP deflator 12.8 11.7 9.9 7.7 3.4 2.9 4.5
16 Comp. of employees (per head, % change) 12.2 8.5 11.0 10.4 6.5 7.5 7.3
Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the
17 -3.3 -1.9 -0.2 -2.0 -1.3 1.7 -1.0
rest of the world (% of GDP)
1
Output gap as recalculated by the Commission services on the basis of the Plan (or Programme) scenario, using the commonly
agreed methodology.
Source: Stability Programme 2023 (SP); Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP); Commission 2023 autumn forecast (COM);
Commission calculations.
73
Latvia
Table 11.2: General government budgetary position
Change in ratio:
2022 2023 2024 2022-2024
# Variables (pps. of GDP)
Outturn SP DBP COM SP DBP COM DBP
1=2+3+4+5 Revenue (% of GDP) 35.8 36.0 37.1 37.6 36.1 39.0 39.0 3.2
of which:
2 - Taxes on production and imports 13.8 12.8 13.0 13.5 12.9 13.1 13.3 -0.6
3 - Current taxes on income, wealth, etc. 7.0 6.6 7.0 7.2 6.6 7.5 7.6 0.5
4 - Social contributions 9.7 9.6 9.9 10.1 9.9 10.3 10.2 0.6
5 - Other (residual) 5.3 7.0 7.2 6.9 6.7 8.0 7.9 2.7
6 RRF grants as included in the revenue projections 0.0 0.7 0.6 0.6 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.3
7 Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8=9+16 Expenditure (% of GDP) 40.4 40.0 39.8 40.8 38.6 41.8 42.0 1.4
of which:
9 - Primary expenditure 40.0 39.4 39.0 40.1 37.8 40.9 41.1 0.9
of which:
10 - Compensation of employees 10.6 10.3 10.5 10.8 10.0 11.1 11.2 0.5
11 - Intermediate consumption 6.5 5.9 6.0 6.5 5.7 6.0 6.5 -0.6
12 - Social payments 13.0 13.0 13.2 12.8 13.1 13.3 12.9 0.3
13 - Subsidies 1.7 0.7 0.7 1.3 0.6 0.7 1.1 -1.0
14 - Gross fixed capital formation 3.9 5.1 4.8 5.3 5.9 6.3 6.4 2.4
15 - Other 4.2 4.5 3.8 3.3 2.5 3.5 2.9 -0.7
16 - Interest expenditure 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.5
17=6-7 Expenditure financed by RRF grants 0.0 0.7 0.6 0.6 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.2
18=1-8 General government balance (% of GDP) -4.6 -4.0 -2.7 -3.2 -2.5 -2.8 -3.1 1.8
19=1-9 Primary balance -4.2 -3.4 -2.0 -2.5 -1.7 -1.9 -2.1 2.3
20 Cyclically adjusted balance (% of GDP) -5.0 -3.5 -2.2 -2.7 -2.0 -2.3 -2.7 2.7
21 One-offs (% of GDP) 0.0 -3.0 -2.5 0.0 -1.5 -1.9 0.0 -1.9
22=20-21 Structural balance (% of GDP) -5.0 -0.5 0.2 -2.7 -0.5 -0.4 -2.7 4.6
23=22+16 Structural primary balance -4.6 0.1 1.0 -2.0 0.3 0.5 -1.7 5.1
Source: Stability Programme 2023 (SP); Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP); Commission 2023 autumn forecast (COM);
Commission calculations
74
Latvia
Table 11.3: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance
2022 2023 2024
# Variables
Outturn COM COM
Structural fiscal indicators:
1 Structural balance (% of GDP) -5.0 -2.7 -2.7
2 Medium-term budgetary objective (MTO) -1
3 At or above MTO? No
4=2-1 Distance to MTO (pps. of GDP) 1.7
Recommended fiscal adjustment for 2024:
1
Recommended maximum growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (%
5 3.0
change)
6 Projected growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (% change) 4.8
Difference from recommended growth in net nationally financed primary
7=5-6 2 -1.8
expenditure (pps.)
3
Total net budgetary cost of energy measures (% of GDP):
8 - level 1.5 1.0 0.0
9 - change 1.4 -0.5 -1.0
4
10=13+9 Difference between fiscal adjustment and savings from energy measures (pps.) -0.3
Expenditure-based fiscal indicators:
5
11=12+13 Fiscal stance (pps. of GDP) -0.1 -0.7 -0.5
of which contribution from:
12 - EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds) 0.2 -1.1 -1.2
13=14+15+16 - Net nationally financed primary expenditure -0.3 0.4 0.7
including:
14 - Net nationally financed primary current expenditure -0.3 -0.4 1.0
15 - Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation 1.3 -0.4 -0.3
16 - Nationally financed other capital expenditure -1.2 1.2 0.0
1
Corresponding (maximum) growth rate of nationally financed primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of
discretionary revenue measures, and excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, consistent with achieving the annual
(minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term objective (MTO).
2
A negative (positive) sign indicates that, assuming unchanged policies, net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected
to grow at a rate above (below) the recommended growth rate.
3
Energy support measures less revenue from new (taxes and levies on) windfall profits by energy producers.
4
A negative (positive) sign indicates that net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected to decrease at a rate less than
(more than) the savings made from winding down the energy measures.
5
The fiscal stance is measured as the change in general government primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary
impact of discretionary revenue measures and COVID-19 pandemic-related temporary emergency measures, excluding cyclical
unemployment expenditure, but including the change in expenditure financed by non-repayable support (grants) from the
Recovery and Resilience Facility and other EU funds relative to the medium-term (10-year) average potential nominal GDP growth
rate. A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (a shortfall) of net primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential
GDP growth, corresponding to an expansionary (a contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 1 on page 5 of these
Fiscal Statistical Tables.
Source: Commission 2023 autumn forecast (COM); Commission calculations
75
Latvia
Table 11.4: Debt developments
2023 2024
# Variables Outturn
SP DBP COM SP DBP COM
1 Gross debt ratio1 (% of GDP) 41.0 39.6 39.9 41.7 39.7 41.0 42.3
2=3+4+8 Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP) -3.0 -1.2 -1.1 0.7 0.2 1.1 0.6
2
Contributions :
3 Primary balance 4.2 3.4 2.0 2.5 1.7 1.9 2.1
4≈5+6+7 'Snow-ball' effect -5.8 -3.7 -3.4 -2.1 -1.2 -1.1 -1.8
of which:
5 - Interest expenditure 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0
6 - Real growth effect -1.3 0.0 -0.4 0.1 -0.7 -0.9 -0.9
7 - Inflation effect -4.8 -4.3 -3.7 -2.9 -1.3 -1.1 -1.8
8 'Stock-flow' adjustment -1.4 -1.0 0.3 0.3 -0.2 0.3 0.3
1
End of period.
2
The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the
impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The ‘stock-flow
adjustment’ includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant
disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects.
Source: Stability Programme 2023 (SP); Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP); Commission 2023 autumn forecast (COM);
Commission calculations
76
Latvia
Table 11.5: Fiscal policy measures taken by general government - revenue side
ESA2010 category 2023 2024
#
(% of GDP) DBP
1 Taxes on production and imports 0.0 0.1
2 Current taxes on income, wealth, etc. 0.0 0.4
3 Social contributions 0.0 0.1
4 Property income 0.0 0.4
5 Capital taxes - -
6 Other 0.0 0.1
7=1+2+3+4+5+6 Total 0.0 1.1
The budgetary impact in the table is the aggregated impact of the measures as reported by the national authorities. A positive
(negative) sign implies that general government revenue increases (decreases) as a consequence of the measures.
Source: Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP)
Table 11.6: Fiscal policy measures taken by general government - expenditure side
ESA2010 category 2023 2024
#
(% of GDP) DBP
1 Compensation of employees 0.0 0.7
2 Intermediate consumption 0.0 0.1
3 Social payments 0.0 0.1
4 Interest expenditure - -
5 Subsidies - -
6 Gross fixed capital formation 0.0 0.1
7 Capital transfers - -
8 Other 0.0 0.6
9=1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8 Total 0.0 1.7
The budgetary impact in the table is the aggregated impact of the measures as reported by the national authorities. A positive
(negative) sign implies that general government expenditure increases (decreases) as a consequence of the measures.
Source: Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP)
77
Latvia
Table 11.7: RRF – Grants
# Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
1 RRF grants as included in the revenue projections 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.3 n.a. n.a.
2 Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EU 0.0 0.7 0.5 0.0 1.0 n.a. n.a.
# Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
1 Total current expenditure 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 n.a. n.a.
2 Gross fixed capital formation 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.8 n.a. n.a.
3 Capital transfers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 n.a. n.a.
4=2+3 Total capital expenditure 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.8 n.a. n.a.
# Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
1 Reduction in tax revenue 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 n.a. n.a.
2 Other costs with impact on revenue 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 n.a. n.a.
3 Financial transactions 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 n.a. n.a.
The table shows the data as reported in the Plan, rounded to one decimal place (small figures may therefore be shown as 0.0).
Source: Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024
78
12. LITHUANIA
Table 12.1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts
2022 2023 2024
# Variables
Outturn SP DBP COM SP DBP COM
1=6+7+8 Real GDP (% change) 2.4 0.5 -0.4 -0.4 3.0 1.7 2.5
2 Private consumption 2.0 0.5 0.3 -1.3 3.4 3.1 3.4
3 Gross fixed capital formation 3.6 2.7 7.5 7.6 5.4 3.5 3.8
4 Exports of goods and services 12.2 0.0 -4.5 -4.4 4.9 4.5 3.4
5 Imports of goods and services 12.4 0.3 -6.6 -6.0 5.2 6.0 3.9
Contributions to real GDP growth (pps.)
6 - Final domestic demand 2.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 3.2 2.6 3.2
7 - Change in inventories 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2.9 0.0 0.0 -0.4
8 - Net exports 0.4 -0.3 2.0 1.5 -0.2 -0.9 -0.3
9 Output gap, planned (% of potential GDP) -2.6 -1.9 -1.9 -2.3
1 -2.6 -2.8
10 Output gap, recalculated 1.2 -2.6 -2.2 -1.9 -3.1
11 Employment (% change) 5.1 -0.7 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.3 0.4
12 Unemployment rate (%) 6.0 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.8 6.6 6.7
13 Labour productivity (% change) -2.5 1.2 -0.4 -1.2 3.0 1.4 2.1
14 HICP inflation (% change) 18.9 8.5 9.0 8.8 2.3 2.9 2.9
15 GDP deflator 16.5 9.8 9.0 8.9 2.3 2.9 3.1
16 Comp. of employees (per head, % change) 11.4 10.5 14.2 10.8 5.3 6.8 7.4
Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the
17 -4.0 0.3 2.3 1.7 -0.5 2.6 1.5
rest of the world (% of GDP)
1
Output gap as recalculated by the Commission services on the basis of the Plan (or Programme) scenario, using the commonly
agreed methodology.
Source: Stability Programme 2023 (SP); Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP); Commission 2023 autumn forecast (COM);
Commission calculations.
79
Lithuania
Table 12.2: General government budgetary position
Change in ratio:
2022 2023 2024 2022-2024
# Variables (pps. of GDP)
Outturn SP DBP COM SP DBP COM DBP
1=2+3+4+5 Revenue (% of GDP) 35.7 36.3 37.0 36.5 36.4 38.0 37.1 2.3
of which:
2 - Taxes on production and imports 11.5 11.1 11.2 11.1 11.3 11.7 11.4 0.2
3 - Current taxes on income, wealth, etc. 10.0 9.9 10.5 10.4 10.1 10.6 10.4 0.6
4 - Social contributions 10.2 9.9 10.5 10.4 10.0 10.7 10.5 0.5
5 - Other (residual) 4.1 5.4 4.8 4.6 5.0 5.0 4.7 0.9
6 RRF grants as included in the revenue projections 0.1 0.7 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.7
7 Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants 0.0 0.0 n.a. 0.0 0.0 n.a. 0.0 n.a.
8=9+16 Expenditure (% of GDP) 36.4 38.6 38.9 38.1 38.1 40.9 39.4 4.5
of which:
9 - Primary expenditure 36.0 38.1 38.4 37.7 37.5 40.3 38.8 4.3
of which:
10 - Compensation of employees 10.1 10.1 10.5 10.4 10.1 10.9 10.7 0.8
11 - Intermediate consumption 4.3 5.6 5.0 4.7 5.6 5.4 4.8 1.1
12 - Social payments 14.0 14.7 15.0 14.9 14.7 15.8 15.6 1.8
13 - Subsidies 1.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.3 -1.4
14 - Gross fixed capital formation 3.2 4.0 4.1 3.7 3.9 4.2 3.9 1.0
15 - Other 2.7 2.9 3.0 3.2 2.9 3.7 3.5 1.0
16 - Interest expenditure 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.2
17=6-7 Expenditure financed by RRF grants 0.1 0.7 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.7
18=1-8 General government balance (% of GDP) -0.7 -2.2 -1.9 -1.6 -1.7 -2.9 -2.3 -2.2
19=1-9 Primary balance -0.3 -1.8 -1.5 -1.1 -1.1 -2.2 -1.7 -1.9
20 Cyclically adjusted balance (% of GDP) -1.1 -1.2 -1.2 -0.6 -0.9 -1.9 -1.2 -0.8
21 One-offs (% of GDP) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
22=20-21 Structural balance (% of GDP) -1.1 -1.0 -1.0 -0.6 -1.0 -2.0 -1.2 -0.9
23=22+16 Structural primary balance -0.8 -0.5 -0.5 -0.1 -0.4 -1.4 -0.5 -0.6
Source: Stability Programme 2023 (SP); Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP); Commission 2023 autumn forecast (COM);
Commission calculations
80
Lithuania
Table 12.3: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance
2022 2023 2024
# Variables
Outturn COM COM
Structural fiscal indicators:
1 Structural balance (% of GDP) -1.1 -0.6 -1.2
2 Medium-term budgetary objective (MTO) -1
3 At or above MTO? Yes
4=2-1 Distance to MTO (pps. of GDP) n.a.
Recommended fiscal adjustment for 2024:
1
Recommended maximum growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (%
5 na.
change)
6 Projected growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (% change) 7.2
Difference from recommended growth in net nationally financed primary
7=5-6 2 n.a.
expenditure (pps.)
3
Total net budgetary cost of energy measures (% of GDP):
8 - level 1.3 0.4 0.1
9 - change 1.3 -0.9 -0.3
4
10=13+9 Difference between fiscal adjustment and savings from energy measures (pps.) -0.7
Expenditure-based fiscal indicators:
5
11=12+13 Fiscal stance (pps. of GDP) 0.8 -0.8 -0.6
of which contribution from:
12 - EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds) 0.2 -0.3 -0.3
13=14+15+16 - Net nationally financed primary expenditure 0.6 -0.5 -0.3
including:
14 - Net nationally financed primary current expenditure 0.9 -0.1 -0.3
15 - Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation -0.1 -0.3 0.1
16 - Nationally financed other capital expenditure -0.2 -0.1 -0.1
1
Corresponding (maximum) growth rate of nationally financed primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of
discretionary revenue measures, and excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, consistent with achieving the annual
(minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term objective (MTO).
2
A negative (positive) sign indicates that, assuming unchanged policies, net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected
to grow at a rate above (below) the recommended growth rate.
3
Energy support measures less revenue from new (taxes and levies on) windfall profits by energy producers.
4
A negative (positive) sign indicates that net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected to decrease at a rate less than
(more than) the savings made from winding down the energy measures.
5
The fiscal stance is measured as the change in general government primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary
impact of discretionary revenue measures and COVID-19 pandemic-related temporary emergency measures, excluding cyclical
unemployment expenditure, but including the change in expenditure financed by non-repayable support (grants) from the
Recovery and Resilience Facility and other EU funds relative to the medium-term (10-year) average potential nominal GDP growth
rate. A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (a shortfall) of net primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential
GDP growth, corresponding to an expansionary (a contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 1 on page 5 of these
Fiscal Statistical Tables.
Source: Commission 2023 autumn forecast (COM); Commission calculations
81
Lithuania
Table 12.4: Debt developments
2023 2024
# Variables Outturn
SP DBP COM SP DBP COM
1 Gross debt ratio1 (% of GDP) 38.1 37.8 37.9 37.3 37.7 39.8 38.3
2=3+4+8 Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP) -5.4 -0.6 -0.5 -0.8 -0.1 1.8 1.0
2
Contributions :
3 Primary balance 0.3 1.8 1.5 1.1 1.1 2.2 1.7
4≈5+6+7 'Snow-ball' effect -6.7 -3.2 -2.6 -2.5 -1.3 -1.0 -1.4
of which:
5 - Interest expenditure 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6
6 - Real growth effect -0.9 -0.2 0.1 0.1 -1.1 -0.6 -0.9
7 - Inflation effect -6.0 -3.4 -3.2 -3.1 -0.8 -1.1 -1.1
8 'Stock-flow' adjustment 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.7 0.7
1
End of period.
2
The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the
impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The ‘stock-flow
adjustment’ includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant
disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects.
Source: Stability Programme 2023 (SP); Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP); Commission 2023 autumn forecast (COM);
Commission calculations
82
Lithuania
Table 12.5: Fiscal policy measures taken by general government - revenue side
ESA2010 category 2023 2024
#
(% of GDP) DBP
1 Taxes on production and imports 0.1 0.4
2 Current taxes on income, wealth, etc. -0.1 -0.1
3 Social contributions 0.0 0.0
4 Property income - -
5 Capital taxes - -
6 Other 0.0 0.0
7=1+2+3+4+5+6 Total 0.0 0.3
The budgetary impact in the table is the aggregated impact of the measures as reported by the national authorities. A positive
(negative) sign implies that general government revenue increases (decreases) as a consequence of the measures.
Source: Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP)
Table 12.6: Fiscal policy measures taken by general government - expenditure side
ESA2010 category 2023 2024
#
(% of GDP) DBP
1 Compensation of employees -0.6 -0.7
2 Intermediate consumption -0.1 0.0
3 Social payments -0.7 -0.5
4 Interest expenditure - -
5 Subsidies -0.4 0.4
6 Gross fixed capital formation -0.4 0.0
7 Capital transfers -0.1 -0.1
8 Other - -
9=1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8 Total -2.4 -0.9
The budgetary impact in the table is the aggregated impact of the measures as reported by the national authorities. A positive
(negative) sign implies that general government expenditure increases (decreases) as a consequence of the measures.
Source: Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP)
83
Lithuania
Table 12.7: RRF – Grants
# Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
1 RRF grants as included in the revenue projections n.a. 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.0 0.4
2 Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EU n.a. 0.5 0.0 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.5
# Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
1 Total current expenditure n.a. 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1
2 Gross fixed capital formation n.a. 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.4
3 Capital transfers n.a. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
4=2+3 Total capital expenditure n.a. 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.4
# Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
1 Reduction in tax revenue n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
2 Other costs with impact on revenue n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
3 Financial transactions n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
The table shows the data as reported in the Plan, rounded to one decimal place (small figures may therefore be shown as 0.0).
Source: Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024
84
Lithuania
Table 12.8: RRF – Loans
# Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the Plan (% of GDP)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
1 Disbursements of RRF loans from EU n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.6
2 Repayments of RRF loans to EU n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
# Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
1 Total current expenditure n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.0 0.6 0.7 0.6
2 Gross fixed capital formation n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
3 Capital transfers n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
4=2+3 Total capital expenditure n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
# Other costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
1 Reduction in tax revenue n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
2 Other costs with impact on revenue n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
3 Financial transactions n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
The table shows the data as reported in the Plan, rounded to one decimal place (small figures may therefore be shown as 0.0).
The general government expenditure financed by RRF loans will constitute 0.01% of GDP in 2024, 0.01% in 2025, and 0.02% in
2026. The remaining funding will be distributed as loans and will not affect the total levels of expenditure accounted on the
accrual basis in 2024-2026.
Source: Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024
85
13. LUXEMBOURG
Table 13.1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts
2022 2023 2024
# Variables
Outturn SP DBP COM SP DBP COM
1=6+7+8 Real GDP (% change) 1.4 2.4 1.5 -0.6 3.8 2.5 1.4
2 Private consumption 2.3 3.2 1.5 2.0 3.1 3.7 1.9
3 Gross fixed capital formation -7.7 -9.3 -4.6 -0.9 15.2 5.9 2.1
4 Exports of goods and services -0.6 4.8 4.2 -1.3 6.2 4.9 2.7
5 Imports of goods and services -1.9 4.3 4.3 -0.7 7.2 5.8 3.3
Contributions to real GDP growth (pps.)
6 - Final domestic demand -0.3 0.1 0.4 1.2 3.8 2.4 1.5
7 - Change in inventories -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0
8 - Net exports 2.1 2.5 1.2 -1.6 0.1 0.1 -0.2
9 Output gap, planned (% of potential GDP) -1.5 -1.1 -0.3 -0.9
1 -2.3 -2.6
10 Output gap, recalculated 0.1 -1.4 -2.0 -0.5 -2.1
11 Employment (% change) 3.4 2.7 2.5 1.7 2.5 2.0 1.2
12 Unemployment rate (%) 4.6 4.5 4.9 5.5 4.6 5.1 5.9
13 Labour productivity (% change) -1.9 -0.2 -0.9 -2.2 1.3 0.5 0.1
14 HICP inflation (% change) 8.2 3.2 2.8 3.2 2.7 2.6 3.0
15 GDP deflator 5.7 2.2 3.4 5.0 2.1 1.7 3.8
16 Comp. of employees (per head, % change) 5.8 5.7 6.0 5.9 4.2 3.7 4.2
Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the
17 -0.6 0.0 0.0 -2.6 0.0 0.0 -4.1
rest of the world (% of GDP)
1
Output gap as recalculated by the Commission services on the basis of the Plan (or Programme) scenario, using the commonly
agreed methodology.
Source: Stability Programme 2023 (SP); Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP); Commission 2023 autumn forecast (COM);
Commission calculations.
86
Luxembourg
Table 13.2: General government budgetary position
Change in ratio:
2022 2023 2024 2022-2024
# Variables (pps. of GDP)
Outturn SP DBP COM SP DBP COM DBP
1=2+3+4+5 Revenue (% of GDP) 43.6 44.2 44.7 44.6 43.9 44.6 43.9 1.0
of which:
2 - Taxes on production and imports 11.2 11.3 10.9 11.0 11.3 11.0 10.9 -0.2
3 - Current taxes on income, wealth, etc. 16.0 16.2 16.7 16.4 16.1 16.6 16.1 0.6
4 - Social contributions 12.0 12.4 12.6 12.5 12.3 12.4 12.3 0.4
5 - Other (residual) 4.4 4.3 4.5 4.7 4.2 4.6 4.6 0.2
6 RRF grants as included in the revenue projections 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
7 Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8=9+16 Expenditure (% of GDP) 43.9 45.7 46.7 46.5 45.6 47.4 46.0 3.5
of which:
9 - Primary expenditure 43.7 45.5 46.5 46.3 45.4 47.2 45.7 3.5
of which:
10 - Compensation of employees 10.2 10.8 11.0 10.7 10.9 11.3 10.8 1.1
11 - Intermediate consumption 4.5 4.5 4.7 4.7 4.4 4.8 4.8 0.3
12 - Social payments 18.8 19.1 19.4 19.6 19.0 19.7 19.4 0.9
13 - Subsidies 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.4 1.5 1.4 0.4
14 - Gross fixed capital formation 4.2 4.5 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.8 4.6 0.6
15 - Other 4.8 5.1 5.3 5.1 5.2 5.1 4.7 0.3
16 - Interest expenditure 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.0
17=6-7 Expenditure financed by RRF grants 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
18=1-8 General government balance (% of GDP) -0.3 -1.5 -1.9 -1.9 -1.7 -2.7 -2.1 -2.4
19=1-9 Primary balance -0.1 -1.3 -1.7 -1.7 -1.5 -2.5 -1.8 -2.4
20 Cyclically adjusted balance (% of GDP) -0.3 -0.8 n.a. -0.9 -1.6 n.a. -0.9 n.a.
21 One-offs (% of GDP) 0.0 n.a. 0.0 0.0 n.a. 0.0 0.0 0.0
22=20-21 Structural balance (% of GDP) -0.3 -0.8 -1.4 -0.9 -1.6 -2.3 -0.9 -2.0
23=22+16 Structural primary balance -0.2 -0.6 -1.2 -0.6 -1.4 -2.1 -0.6 -1.9
Source: Stability Programme 2023 (SP); Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP); Commission 2023 autumn forecast (COM);
Commission calculations
87
Luxembourg
Table 13.3: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance
2022 2023 2024
# Variables
Outturn COM COM
Structural fiscal indicators:
1 Structural balance (% of GDP) -0.3 -0.9 -0.9
2 Medium-term budgetary objective (MTO) 0.5
3 At or above MTO? No
4=2-1 Distance to MTO (pps. of GDP) 1.4
Recommended fiscal adjustment for 2024:
1
Recommended maximum growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (%
5 4.8
change)
6 Projected growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (% change) 5.0
Difference from recommended growth in net nationally financed primary
7=5-6 2 -0.2
expenditure (pps.)
3
Total net budgetary cost of energy measures (% of GDP):
8 - level 0.6 0.9 0.4
9 - change 0.6 0.3 -0.5
4
10=13+9 Difference between fiscal adjustment and savings from energy measures (pps.) -0.2
Expenditure-based fiscal indicators:
5
11=12+13 Fiscal stance (pps. of GDP) -1.5 -1.4 0.4
of which contribution from:
12 - EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds) 0.0 0.0 0.0
13=14+15+16 - Net nationally financed primary expenditure -1.5 -1.4 0.4
including:
14 - Net nationally financed primary current expenditure -1.7 -1.1 0.3
15 - Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation -0.1 -0.2 0.0
16 - Nationally financed other capital expenditure 0.3 -0.1 0.1
1
Corresponding (maximum) growth rate of nationally financed primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of
discretionary revenue measures, and excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, consistent with achieving the annual
(minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term objective (MTO).
2
A negative (positive) sign indicates that, assuming unchanged policies, net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected
to grow at a rate above (below) the recommended growth rate.
3
Energy support measures less revenue from new (taxes and levies on) windfall profits by energy producers.
4
A negative (positive) sign indicates that net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected to decrease at a rate less than
(more than) the savings made from winding down the energy measures.
5
The fiscal stance is measured as the change in general government primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary
impact of discretionary revenue measures and COVID-19 pandemic-related temporary emergency measures, excluding cyclical
unemployment expenditure, but including the change in expenditure financed by non-repayable support (grants) from the
Recovery and Resilience Facility and other EU funds relative to the medium-term (10-year) average potential nominal GDP growth
rate. A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (a shortfall) of net primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential
GDP growth, corresponding to an expansionary (a contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 1 on page 5 of these
Fiscal Statistical Tables.
Source: Commission 2023 autumn forecast (COM); Commission calculations
88
Luxembourg
Table 13.4: Debt developments
2023 2024
# Variables Outturn
SP DBP COM SP DBP COM
1 Gross debt ratio1 (% of GDP) 24.7 26.1 25.0 26.8 27.5 27.8 28.7
2=3+4+8 Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP) 0.2 1.5 0.3 2.0 1.3 2.8 1.9
2
Contributions :
3 Primary balance 0.1 1.3 1.7 1.7 1.5 2.5 1.8
4≈5+6+7 'Snow-ball' effect -1.5 -0.9 -1.0 -0.8 -1.3 -0.8 -1.0
of which:
5 - Interest expenditure 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3
6 - Real growth effect -0.3 -0.6 -0.4 0.1 -0.9 -0.6 -0.3
7 - Inflation effect -1.3 -0.5 -0.8 -1.2 -0.5 -0.4 -1.0
8 'Stock-flow' adjustment 1.6 1.1 -0.5 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1
1
End of period.
2
The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the
impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The ‘stock-flow
adjustment’ includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant
disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects.
Source: Stability Programme 2023 (SP); Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP); Commission 2023 autumn forecast (COM);
Commission calculations
89
Luxembourg
Table 13.5: Fiscal policy measures taken by general government - revenue side
ESA2010 category 2023 2024
#
(% of GDP) DBP
1 Taxes on production and imports - -
2 Current taxes on income, wealth, etc. - -
3 Social contributions - -
4 Property income - -
5 Capital taxes - -
6 Other - -
7=1+2+3+4+5+6 Total - -
The budgetary impact in the table is the aggregated impact of the measures as reported by the national authorities. A positive
(negative) sign implies that general government revenue increases (decreases) as a consequence of the measures.
Source: Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP)
Table 13.6: Fiscal policy measures taken by general government - expenditure side
ESA2010 category 2023 2024
#
(% of GDP) DBP
1 Compensation of employees - -
2 Intermediate consumption - -
3 Social payments - -
4 Interest expenditure - -
5 Subsidies - -
6 Gross fixed capital formation - -
7 Capital transfers - -
8 Other - -
9=1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8 Total - -
The budgetary impact in the table is the aggregated impact of the measures as reported by the national authorities. A positive
(negative) sign implies that general government expenditure increases (decreases) as a consequence of the measures.
Source: Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP)
90
Luxembourg
Table 13.7: RRF – Grants
# Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
1 RRF grants as included in the revenue projections 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 n.a. n.a.
2 Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EU 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 n.a. n.a.
# Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
1 Total current expenditure 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 n.a. n.a.
2 Gross fixed capital formation 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 n.a. n.a.
3 Capital transfers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 n.a. n.a.
4=2+3 Total capital expenditure 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 n.a. n.a.
# Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
1 Reduction in tax revenue 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 n.a. n.a.
2 Other costs with impact on revenue 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 n.a. n.a.
3 Financial transactions 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 n.a. n.a.
The table shows the data as reported in the Plan, rounded to one decimal place (small figures may therefore be shown as 0.0).
Source: Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024
91
14. MALTA
Table 14.1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts
2022 2023 2024
# Variables
Outturn SP DBP COM SP DBP COM
1=6+7+8 Real GDP (% change) 6.9 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.5 4.2 4.0
2 Private consumption 9.5 3.8 6.1 5.4 3.9 4.5 3.8
3 Gross fixed capital formation 31.2 -6.8 -18.9 -21.2 3.8 5.5 4.0
4 Exports of goods and services 6.8 4.3 2.6 3.0 5.2 3.9 4.0
5 Imports of goods and services 10.1 2.4 -0.9 -1.1 4.8 3.9 3.7
Contributions to real GDP growth (pps.)
6 - Final domestic demand 10.7 0.6 -1.6 -2.5 3.2 3.6 2.9
7 - Change in inventories -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8 - Net exports -3.7 3.5 5.7 6.5 1.2 0.6 1.1
9 Output gap, planned (% of potential GDP) -0.1 -0.5 -0.4 -0.6
1 -1.0 -1.2
10 Output gap, recalculated -0.4 -1.1 -1.2 -1.0 -1.5
11 Employment (% change) 6.2 3.5 4.7 3.7 3.7 4.4 2.4
12 Unemployment rate (%) 2.9 3.0 2.7 2.7 3.1 2.7 2.7
13 Labour productivity (% change) 0.7 0.6 -0.5 0.2 0.7 -0.2 1.6
14 HICP inflation (% change) 6.1 5.7 5.7 5.7 3.5 3.7 3.3
15 GDP deflator 5.3 4.3 5.4 5.0 3.0 3.1 3.1
16 Comp. of employees (per head, % change) 3.1 5.3 4.1 3.9 3.9 4.3 3.9
Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the
17 1.6 n.a. n.a. 5.1 n.a. n.a. 6.6
rest of the world (% of GDP)
1
Output gap as recalculated by the Commission services on the basis of the Plan (or Programme) scenario, using the commonly
agreed methodology.
Source: Stability Programme 2023 (SP); Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP); Commission 2023 autumn forecast (COM);
Commission calculations.
92
Malta
Table 14.2: General government budgetary position
Change in ratio:
2022 2023 2024 2022-2024
# Variables (pps. of GDP)
Outturn SP DBP COM SP DBP COM DBP
1=2+3+4+5 Revenue (% of GDP) 34.2 35.7 35.0 34.9 34.2 34.0 34.2 -0.2
of which:
2 - Taxes on production and imports 10.4 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.3 10.7 10.6 0.3
3 - Current taxes on income, wealth, etc. 13.1 13.4 13.1 13.0 13.3 13.0 13.0 -0.1
4 - Social contributions 5.8 5.8 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.5 5.6 -0.3
5 - Other (residual) 5.0 6.0 5.9 5.8 4.9 4.8 5.0 -0.2
6 RRF grants as included in the revenue projections 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3
7 Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8=9+16 Expenditure (% of GDP) 39.9 40.7 40.0 39.9 38.5 38.6 38.8 -1.3
of which:
9 - Primary expenditure 38.9 39.5 38.9 38.8 37.1 37.3 37.5 -1.6
of which:
10 - Compensation of employees 10.7 10.7 10.5 10.4 10.6 10.5 10.4 -0.2
11 - Intermediate consumption 7.8 8.5 8.1 8.0 8.2 7.7 7.7 -0.1
12 - Social payments 8.6 8.8 8.5 8.6 8.8 8.6 8.5 0.0
13 - Subsidies 4.8 3.7 3.8 3.9 2.9 3.3 3.3 -1.5
14 - Gross fixed capital formation 3.4 3.8 4.5 4.5 3.1 3.8 3.9 0.4
15 - Other 3.6 4.0 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.7 -0.2
16 - Interest expenditure 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.5 1.3 1.3 0.3
17=6-7 Expenditure financed by RRF grants 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3
18=1-8 General government balance (% of GDP) -5.7 -5.0 -5.0 -5.1 -4.3 -4.5 -4.6 1.2
19=1-9 Primary balance -4.8 -3.8 -3.8 -4.0 -2.8 -3.2 -3.3 1.6
20 Cyclically adjusted balance (% of GDP) -5.5 -4.9 -4.7 -4.6 -4.1 -4.2 -4.0 1.3
21 One-offs (% of GDP) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
22=20-21 Structural balance (% of GDP) -5.5 -4.9 -4.8 -4.6 -4.1 -4.3 -4.0 1.2
23=22+16 Structural primary balance -4.5 -3.7 -3.7 -3.5 -2.7 -3.0 -2.7 1.5
Source: Stability Programme 2023 (SP); Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP); Commission 2023 autumn forecast (COM);
Commission calculations
93
Malta
Table 14.3: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance
2022 2023 2024
# Variables
Outturn COM COM
Structural fiscal indicators:
1 Structural balance (% of GDP) -5.5 -4.6 -4.0
2 Medium-term budgetary objective (MTO) 0
3 At or above MTO? No
4=2-1 Distance to MTO (pps. of GDP) 4.0
Recommended fiscal adjustment for 2024:
1
Recommended maximum growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (%
5 5.9
change)
6 Projected growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (% change) 5.5
Difference from recommended growth in net nationally financed primary
7=5-6 2 0.4
expenditure (pps.)
3
Total net budgetary cost of energy measures (% of GDP):
8 - level 2.3 1.6 2.0
9 - change 1.9 -0.7 0.4
4
10=13+9 Difference between fiscal adjustment and savings from energy measures (pps.) 1.3
Expenditure-based fiscal indicators:
5
11=12+13 Fiscal stance (pps. of GDP) -0.1 0.1 1.7
of which contribution from:
12 - EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds) 0.2 -0.9 0.8
13=14+15+16 - Net nationally financed primary expenditure -0.3 1.0 0.9
including:
14 - Net nationally financed primary current expenditure -0.9 1.3 1.0
15 - Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation 0.2 -0.2 -0.1
16 - Nationally financed other capital expenditure 0.4 -0.1 0.0
1
Corresponding (maximum) growth rate of nationally financed primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of
discretionary revenue measures, and excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, consistent with achieving the annual
(minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term objective (MTO).
2
A negative (positive) sign indicates that, assuming unchanged policies, net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected
to grow at a rate above (below) the recommended growth rate.
3
Energy support measures less revenue from new (taxes and levies on) windfall profits by energy producers.
4
A negative (positive) sign indicates that net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected to decrease at a rate less than
(more than) the savings made from winding down the energy measures.
5
The fiscal stance is measured as the change in general government primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary
impact of discretionary revenue measures and COVID-19 pandemic-related temporary emergency measures, excluding cyclical
unemployment expenditure, but including the change in expenditure financed by non-repayable support (grants) from the
Recovery and Resilience Facility and other EU funds relative to the medium-term (10-year) average potential nominal GDP growth
rate. A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (a shortfall) of net primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential
GDP growth, corresponding to an expansionary (a contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 1 on page 5 of these
Fiscal Statistical Tables.
Source: Commission 2023 autumn forecast (COM); Commission calculations
94
Malta
Table 14.4: Debt developments
2023 2024
# Variables Outturn
SP DBP COM SP DBP COM
1 Gross debt ratio1 (% of GDP) 52.3 54.5 53.1 53.3 55.7 55.6 55.8
2=3+4+8 Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP) -1.7 1.1 0.8 1.0 1.3 2.5 2.6
2
Contributions :
3 Primary balance 4.8 3.8 3.8 4.0 2.8 3.2 3.3
4≈5+6+7 'Snow-ball' effect -5.1 -3.0 -3.4 -3.3 -2.4 -2.4 -2.2
of which:
5 - Interest expenditure 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.5 1.3 1.3
6 - Real growth effect -3.3 -2.0 -2.0 -1.9 -2.3 -2.1 -2.0
7 - Inflation effect -2.5 -2.1 -2.6 -2.4 -1.5 -1.5 -1.5
8 'Stock-flow' adjustment -1.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.8 1.6 1.5
1
End of period.
2
The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the
impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The ‘stock-flow
adjustment’ includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant
disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects.
Source: Stability Programme 2023 (SP); Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP); Commission 2023 autumn forecast (COM);
Commission calculations
95
Malta
Table 14.5: Fiscal policy measures taken by general government - revenue side
ESA2010 category 2023 2024
#
(% of GDP) DBP
1 Taxes on production and imports 0.0 0.1
2 Current taxes on income, wealth, etc. 0.2 0.0
3 Social contributions 0.0 0.0
4 Property income - -
5 Capital taxes - -
6 Other 0.2 0.0
7=1+2+3+4+5+6 Total 0.4 0.1
The budgetary impact in the table is the aggregated impact of the measures as reported by the national authorities. A positive
(negative) sign implies that general government revenue increases (decreases) as a consequence of the measures.
Source: Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP)
Table 14.6: Fiscal policy measures taken by general government - expenditure side
ESA2010 category 2023 2024
#
(% of GDP) DBP
1 Compensation of employees - -
2 Intermediate consumption -0.2 0.0
3 Social payments 0.5 0.2
4 Interest expenditure - -
5 Subsidies -1.2 -0.1
6 Gross fixed capital formation 0.1 0.0
7 Capital transfers 0.0 0.0
8 Other -0.3 0.1
9=1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8 Total -1.1 0.1
The budgetary impact in the table is the aggregated impact of the measures as reported by the national authorities. A positive
(negative) sign implies that general government expenditure increases (decreases) as a consequence of the measures.
Source: Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP)
96
Malta
Table 14.7: RRF – Grants
# Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
1 RRF grants as included in the revenue projections 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.1
2 Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EU 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.0
# Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
1 Total current expenditure 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2 Gross fixed capital formation 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.1
3 Capital transfers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
4=2+3 Total capital expenditure 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.1
# Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
1 Reduction in tax revenue 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2 Other costs with impact on revenue 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
3 Financial transactions 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
The table shows the data as reported in the Plan, rounded to one decimal place (small figures may therefore be shown as 0.0).
Source: Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024
97
15. THE NETHERLANDS
Table 15.1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts
2022 2023 2024
# Variables
Outturn SP DBP COM SP DBP COM
1=6+7+8 Real GDP (% change) 4.3 1.6 0.7 0.6 1.4 1.5 1.1
2 Private consumption 6.6 1.7 0.6 0.3 1.4 2.4 0.6
3 Gross fixed capital formation 1.8 0.3 5.0 4.3 1.3 -0.4 0.3
4 Exports of goods and services 4.5 3.7 0.8 0.4 2.3 1.5 1.1
5 Imports of goods and services 3.8 4.2 1.9 1.4 2.5 2.1 1.3
Contributions to real GDP growth (pps.)
6 - Final domestic demand 3.5 1.7 2.2 1.8 1.4 1.9 1.0
7 - Change in inventories -0.2 0.2 -0.4 -0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1
8 - Net exports 1.0 -0.1 -0.8 -0.7 0.1 -0.4 0.0
9 Output gap, planned (% of potential GDP) 1.1 0.2 0.6 -0.3
1 0.1 -0.8
10 Output gap, recalculated 1.7 1.0 0.0 0.5 -0.7
11 Employment (% change) 3.9 1.4 1.3 1.5 0.3 0.2 0.5
12 Unemployment rate (%) 3.5 3.9 3.6 3.6 4.1 4.0 3.9
13 Labour productivity (% change) 0.4 0.2 -0.6 -0.9 1.1 1.3 0.5
14 HICP inflation (% change) 11.6 2.9 4.1 4.6 3.2 3.9 3.7
15 GDP deflator 5.5 6.2 6.6 7.3 3.0 3.3 3.7
16 Comp. of employees (per head, % change) 4.0 5.9 6.7 6.2 5.1 5.9 5.5
Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the
17 20.3 6.6 9.1 9.2 6.8 8.5 9.2
rest of the world (% of GDP)
1
Output gap as recalculated by the Commission services on the basis of the Plan (or Programme) scenario, using the commonly
agreed methodology.
Source: Stability Programme 2023 (SP); Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP); Commission 2023 autumn forecast (COM);
Commission calculations.
98
The Netherlands
Table 15.2: General government budgetary position
Change in ratio:
2022 2023 2024 2022-2024
# Variables (pps. of GDP)
Outturn SP DBP COM SP DBP COM DBP
1=2+3+4+5 Revenue (% of GDP) 43.4 42.0 42.5 42.7 41.9 42.7 42.3 -0.7
of which:
2 - Taxes on production and imports 11.2 11.8 11.4 10.9 11.8 11.4 10.7 0.2
3 - Current taxes on income, wealth, etc. 13.9 12.9 14.0 14.2 13.0 14.2 14.1 0.3
4 - Social contributions 13.1 13.3 13.1 13.0 13.2 13.0 12.9 -0.1
5 - Other (residual) 5.2 4.0 4.0 4.6 3.9 4.2 4.6 -1.0
6 RRF grants as included in the revenue projections 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
7 Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants 0.0 n.a. n.a. 0.0 n.a. n.a. 0.0 n.a.
8=9+16 Expenditure (% of GDP) 43.5 45.1 44.0 43.2 44.5 45.1 44.1 1.6
of which:
9 - Primary expenditure 43.0 44.4 43.3 42.4 43.8 44.3 43.3 1.3
of which:
10 - Compensation of employees 8.3 8.0 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.5 8.5 0.2
11 - Intermediate consumption 6.3 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.0 6.3 6.4 0.0
12 - Social payments 20.2 21.4 21.1 21.0 21.7 21.9 21.8 1.7
13 - Subsidies 2.0 2.6 2.0 1.5 2.0 1.8 1.3 -0.2
14 - Gross fixed capital formation 3.2 3.4 3.1 3.1 3.5 3.2 3.1 0.0
15 - Other 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.2 -0.4
16 - Interest expenditure 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.3
17=6-7 Expenditure financed by RRF grants 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
18=1-8 General government balance (% of GDP) -0.1 -3.0 -1.5 -0.5 -2.6 -2.4 -1.8 -2.3
19=1-9 Primary balance 0.4 -2.4 -0.8 0.2 -1.9 -1.6 -1.0 -2.0
20 Cyclically adjusted balance (% of GDP) -1.1 -3.6 -1.6 -0.5 -3.0 -2.2 -1.3 -1.1
21 One-offs (% of GDP) 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
22=20-21 Structural balance (% of GDP) -1.1 -3.7 -1.5 -0.5 -3.0 -2.2 -1.3 -1.1
23=22+16 Structural primary balance -0.6 -3.1 -0.8 0.2 -2.3 -1.4 -0.5 -0.8
Source: Stability Programme 2023 (SP); Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP); Commission 2023 autumn forecast (COM);
Commission calculations
99
The Netherlands
Table 15.3: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance
2022 2023 2024
# Variables
Outturn COM COM
Structural fiscal indicators:
1 Structural balance (% of GDP) -1.1 -0.5 -1.3
2 Medium-term budgetary objective (MTO) -0.75
3 At or above MTO? No
4=2-1 Distance to MTO (pps. of GDP) 0.5
Recommended fiscal adjustment for 2024:
1
Recommended maximum growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (%
5 3.5
change)
6 Projected growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (% change) 5.8
Difference from recommended growth in net nationally financed primary
7=5-6 2 -2.3
expenditure (pps.)
3
Total net budgetary cost of energy measures (% of GDP):
8 - level 0.7 1.0 0.0
9 - change 0.7 0.3 -1.0
4
10=13+9 Difference between fiscal adjustment and savings from energy measures (pps.) -1.1
Expenditure-based fiscal indicators:
5
11=12+13 Fiscal stance (pps. of GDP) 0.0 1.2 -0.1
of which contribution from:
12 - EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds) 0.0 0.0 0.0
13=14+15+16 - Net nationally financed primary expenditure 0.0 1.2 -0.1
including:
14 - Net nationally financed primary current expenditure -0.2 0.9 -0.1
15 - Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation 0.2 0.1 0.0
16 - Nationally financed other capital expenditure -0.1 0.1 0.0
1
Corresponding (maximum) growth rate of nationally financed primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of
discretionary revenue measures, and excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, consistent with achieving the annual
(minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term objective (MTO).
2
A negative (positive) sign indicates that, assuming unchanged policies, net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected
to grow at a rate above (below) the recommended growth rate.
3
Energy support measures less revenue from new (taxes and levies on) windfall profits by energy producers.
4
A negative (positive) sign indicates that net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected to decrease at a rate less than
(more than) the savings made from winding down the energy measures.
5
The fiscal stance is measured as the change in general government primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary
impact of discretionary revenue measures and COVID-19 pandemic-related temporary emergency measures, excluding cyclical
unemployment expenditure, but including the change in expenditure financed by non-repayable support (grants) from the
Recovery and Resilience Facility and other EU funds relative to the medium-term (10-year) average potential nominal GDP growth
rate. A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (a shortfall) of net primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential
GDP growth, corresponding to an expansionary (a contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 1 on page 5 of these
Fiscal Statistical Tables.
Source: Commission 2023 autumn forecast (COM); Commission calculations
100
The Netherlands
Table 15.4: Debt developments
2023 2024
# Variables Outturn
SP DBP COM SP DBP COM
1 Gross debt ratio1 (% of GDP) 50.1 48.4 47.7 47.1 48.7 46.9 46.6
2=3+4+8 Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP) -1.5 -0.9 -2.4 -3.0 0.3 -0.8 -0.5
2
Contributions :
3 Primary balance -0.4 2.4 0.8 -0.2 1.9 1.6 1.0
4≈5+6+7 'Snow-ball' effect -4.2 -3.0 -2.7 -2.9 -1.4 -1.4 -1.4
of which:
5 - Interest expenditure 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7
6 - Real growth effect -2.0 -0.7 -0.3 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -0.5
7 - Inflation effect -2.6 -2.8 -3.1 -3.4 -1.4 -1.5 -1.7
8 'Stock-flow' adjustment 3.1 -0.4 -0.5 0.1 -0.2 -1.0 -0.1
1
End of period.
2
The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the
impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The ‘stock-flow
adjustment’ includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant
disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects.
Source: Stability Programme 2023 (SP); Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP); Commission 2023 autumn forecast (COM);
Commission calculations
101
The Netherlands
Table 15.5: Fiscal policy measures taken by general government - revenue side
ESA2010 category 2023 2024
#
(% of GDP) DBP
1 Taxes on production and imports 0.1 0.2
2 Current taxes on income, wealth, etc. 0.2 0.3
3 Social contributions 0.1 -0.1
4 Property income - -
5 Capital taxes - -
6 Other - -
7=1+2+3+4+5+6 Total 0.4 0.4
The budgetary impact in the table is the aggregated impact of the measures as reported by the national authorities. A positive
(negative) sign implies that general government revenue increases (decreases) as a consequence of the measures.
Source: Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP)
Table 15.6: Fiscal policy measures taken by general government - expenditure side
ESA2010 category 2023 2024
#
(% of GDP) DBP
1 Compensation of employees 0.5 0.7
2 Intermediate consumption 0.6 0.3
3 Social payments 1.5 1.8
4 Interest expenditure 0.3 0.1
5 Subsidies 0.0 -0.1
6 Gross fixed capital formation 0.0 0.3
7 Capital transfers -0.4 -0.1
8 Other 0.2 0.2
9=1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8 Total 2.8 3.2
The budgetary impact in the table is the aggregated impact of the measures as reported by the national authorities. A positive
(negative) sign implies that general government expenditure increases (decreases) as a consequence of the measures.
Source: Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP)
102
The Netherlands
Table 15.7: RRF – Grants
# Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
1 RRF grants as included in the revenue projections n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
2 Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EU n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
# Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
1 Total current expenditure n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
2 Gross fixed capital formation n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
3 Capital transfers n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
4=2+3 Total capital expenditure n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
# Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
1 Reduction in tax revenue n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
2 Other costs with impact on revenue n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
3 Financial transactions n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
The table shows the data as reported in the Plan, rounded to one decimal place (small figures may therefore be shown as 0.0).
Source: Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024
103
16. AUSTRIA
Table 16.1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts
2022 2023 2024
# Variables
Outturn SP DBP COM SP DBP COM
1=6+7+8 Real GDP (% change) 4.8 0.3 -0.8 -0.5 1.8 1.2 1.0
2 Private consumption 5.7 1.3 0.8 -0.3 2.0 1.8 1.1
3 Gross fixed capital formation 0.1 0.0 -0.5 -2.7 1.0 -0.5 0.1
4 Exports of goods and services 11.2 2.0 1.6 0.6 3.3 2.6 2.6
5 Imports of goods and services 7.9 2.1 0.6 -0.5 3.2 2.7 2.3
Contributions to real GDP growth (pps.)
6 - Final domestic demand 2.9 0.7 -0.1 -1.2 1.4 0.8 0.8
7 - Change in inventories -0.2 -0.4 -1.3 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0
8 - Net exports 1.9 0.0 0.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.2
9 Output gap, planned (% of potential GDP) 0.0 -0.4 0.4 -0.3
1 -0.4 -0.5
10 Output gap, recalculated 1.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1
11 Employment (% change) 2.6 0.7 0.9 0.6 1.2 0.6 0.6
12 Unemployment rate (%) 4.8 4.7 5.2 5.3 4.5 5.2 5.4
13 Labour productivity (% change) 2.1 -0.5 -1.7 -1.1 0.6 0.6 0.4
14 HICP inflation (% change) 8.6 7.1 7.7 7.7 3.8 4.0 4.1
15 GDP deflator 5.3 7.1 8.0 7.6 4.2 4.2 4.0
16 Comp. of employees (per head, % change) 4.7 8.1 8.3 8.3 7.8 7.5 7.1
Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the
17 0.0 1.6 1.5 0.9 2.1 1.9 1.0
rest of the world (% of GDP)
1
Output gap as recalculated by the Commission services on the basis of the Plan (or Programme) scenario, using the commonly
agreed methodology.
Source: Stability Programme 2023 (SP); Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP); Commission 2023 autumn forecast (COM);
Commission calculations.
104
Austria
Table 16.2: General government budgetary position
Change in ratio:
2022 2023 2024 2022-2024
# Variables (pps. of GDP)
Outturn SP DBP COM SP DBP COM DBP
1=2+3+4+5 Revenue (% of GDP) 49.6 49.1 49.1 48.9 49.0 49.3 49.0 -0.3
of which:
2 - Taxes on production and imports 13.8 14.2 13.8 13.8 13.9 13.9 14.0 0.2
3 - Current taxes on income, wealth, etc. 14.4 13.5 13.6 13.6 13.7 13.6 13.5 -0.8
4 - Social contributions 15.2 15.2 15.3 15.3 15.5 15.6 15.6 0.4
5 - Other (residual) 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.2 6.0 6.2 6.0 -0.1
6 RRF grants as included in the revenue projections 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1
7 Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8=9+16 Expenditure (% of GDP) 53.2 52.3 51.8 51.4 50.6 52.0 51.4 -1.1
of which:
9 - Primary expenditure 52.2 51.1 50.7 50.2 49.2 50.6 49.9 -1.6
of which:
10 - Compensation of employees 10.4 10.4 10.5 10.5 10.6 10.9 10.8 0.5
11 - Intermediate consumption 7.2 6.6 6.7 6.8 6.4 6.5 6.5 -0.7
12 - Social payments 22.5 22.4 22.5 22.5 22.6 23.3 23.1 0.8
13 - Subsidies 2.7 3.6 2.5 2.5 1.7 1.7 1.6 -1.0
14 - Gross fixed capital formation 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5 0.1
15 - Other 6.0 4.7 4.8 4.5 4.5 4.7 4.4 -1.3
16 - Interest expenditure 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.4 0.5
17=6-7 Expenditure financed by RRF grants 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
18=1-8 General government balance (% of GDP) -3.5 -3.2 -2.7 -2.6 -1.6 -2.7 -2.4 0.8
19=1-9 Primary balance -2.6 -2.0 -1.5 -1.3 -0.2 -1.3 -0.9 1.3
20 Cyclically adjusted balance (% of GDP) -4.2 -3.2 -2.5 -2.3 -1.8 -2.5 -2.1 1.7
21 One-offs (% of GDP) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
22=20-21 Structural balance (% of GDP) -4.2 -3.2 -2.5 -2.3 -1.8 -2.5 -2.1 1.7
23=22+16 Structural primary balance -3.3 -2.0 -1.3 -1.1 -0.4 -1.1 -0.7 2.1
Source: Stability Programme 2023 (SP); Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP); Commission 2023 autumn forecast (COM);
Commission calculations
105
Austria
Table 16.3: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance
2022 2023 2024
# Variables
Outturn COM COM
Structural fiscal indicators:
1 Structural balance (% of GDP) -4.2 -2.3 -2.1
2 Medium-term budgetary objective (MTO) -0.5
3 At or above MTO? No
4=2-1 Distance to MTO (pps. of GDP) 1.6
Recommended fiscal adjustment for 2024:
1
Recommended maximum growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (%
5 4.6
change)
6 Projected growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (% change) 4.6
Difference from recommended growth in net nationally financed primary
7=5-6 2 0.0
expenditure (pps.)
3
Total net budgetary cost of energy measures (% of GDP):
8 - level 1.4 1.6 0.1
9 - change 1.4 0.1 -1.5
4
10=13+9 Difference between fiscal adjustment and savings from energy measures (pps.) -1.2
Expenditure-based fiscal indicators:
5
11=12+13 Fiscal stance (pps. of GDP) -3.2 1.8 0.4
of which contribution from:
12 - EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds) -0.1 -0.1 0.2
13=14+15+16 - Net nationally financed primary expenditure -3.1 1.8 0.2
including:
14 - Net nationally financed primary current expenditure -2.2 1.1 0.5
15 - Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation 0.0 0.1 -0.2
16 - Nationally financed other capital expenditure -0.9 0.6 0.0
1
Corresponding (maximum) growth rate of nationally financed primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of
discretionary revenue measures, and excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, consistent with achieving the annual
(minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term objective (MTO).
2
A negative (positive) sign indicates that, assuming unchanged policies, net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected
to grow at a rate above (below) the recommended growth rate.
3
Energy support measures less revenue from new (taxes and levies on) windfall profits by energy producers.
4
A negative (positive) sign indicates that net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected to decrease at a rate less than
(more than) the savings made from winding down the energy measures.
5
The fiscal stance is measured as the change in general government primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary
impact of discretionary revenue measures and COVID-19 pandemic-related temporary emergency measures, excluding cyclical
unemployment expenditure, but including the change in expenditure financed by non-repayable support (grants) from the
Recovery and Resilience Facility and other EU funds relative to the medium-term (10-year) average potential nominal GDP growth
rate. A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (a shortfall) of net primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential
GDP growth, corresponding to an expansionary (a contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 1 on page 5 of these
Fiscal Statistical Tables.
Source: Commission 2023 autumn forecast (COM); Commission calculations
106
Austria
Table 16.4: Debt developments
2023 2024
# Variables Outturn
SP DBP COM SP DBP COM
1 Gross debt ratio1 (% of GDP) 78.4 77.0 76.4 76.3 75.1 76.4 75.6
2=3+4+8 Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP) -4.1 -1.4 -2.0 -2.1 -1.9 0.0 -0.8
2
Contributions :
3 Primary balance 2.6 2.0 1.5 1.3 0.2 1.3 0.9
4≈5+6+7 'Snow-ball' effect -6.8 -4.2 -4.0 -3.9 -3.0 -2.6 -2.2
of which:
5 - Interest expenditure 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.4
6 - Real growth effect -3.6 -0.2 0.6 0.4 -1.3 -0.9 -0.7
7 - Inflation effect -4.0 -5.2 -5.9 -5.6 -3.1 -3.0 -2.9
8 'Stock-flow' adjustment 0.1 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.9 1.2 0.5
1
End of period.
2
The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the
impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The ‘stock-flow
adjustment’ includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant
disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects.
Source: Stability Programme 2023 (SP); Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP); Commission 2023 autumn forecast (COM);
Commission calculations
107
Austria
Table 16.5: Fiscal policy measures taken by general government - revenue side
ESA2010 category 2023 2024
#
(% of GDP) DBP
1 Taxes on production and imports -0.1 0.0
2 Current taxes on income, wealth, etc. 0.0 0.0
3 Social contributions 0.0 0.0
4 Property income - -
5 Capital taxes - -
6 Other 0.0 0.0
7=1+2+3+4+5+6 Total -0.1 0.1
The budgetary impact in the table is the aggregated impact of the measures as reported by the national authorities. A positive
(negative) sign implies that general government revenue increases (decreases) as a consequence of the measures.
Source: Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP)
Table 16.6: Fiscal policy measures taken by general government - expenditure side
ESA2010 category 2023 2024
#
(% of GDP) DBP
1 Compensation of employees 0.0 0.1
2 Intermediate consumption 0.0 0.1
3 Social payments 0.0 0.1
4 Interest expenditure - -
5 Subsidies 0.6 -0.6
6 Gross fixed capital formation - -
7 Capital transfers 0.0 0.1
8 Other -0.8 0.1
9=1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8 Total -0.2 -0.2
The budgetary impact in the table is the aggregated impact of the measures as reported by the national authorities. A positive
(negative) sign implies that general government expenditure increases (decreases) as a consequence of the measures.
Source: Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP)
108
Austria
Table 16.7: RRF – Grants
# Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
1 RRF grants as included in the revenue projections n.a. 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 n.a. n.a.
2 Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EU n.a. 0.1 n.a. 0.1 0.3 n.a. n.a.
# Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
1 Total current expenditure 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 n.a. n.a.
2 Gross fixed capital formation 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 n.a. n.a.
3 Capital transfers n.a. 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 n.a. n.a.
4=2+3 Total capital expenditure 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 n.a. n.a.
# Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
1 Reduction in tax revenue n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
2 Other costs with impact on revenue n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
3 Financial transactions n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
The table shows the data as reported in the Plan, rounded to one decimal place (small figures may therefore be shown as 0.0).
Source: Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024
109
17. PORTUGAL
Table 17.1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts
2022 2023 2024
# Variables
Outturn SP DBP COM SP DBP COM
1=6+7+8 Real GDP (% change) 6.8 1.8 2.2 2.2 2.0 1.5 1.3
2 Private consumption 5.6 0.6 1.1 0.9 1.3 1.1 1.1
3 Gross fixed capital formation 3.0 3.4 1.3 0.9 5.3 4.1 3.6
4 Exports of goods and services 17.4 4.3 4.3 5.3 4.0 2.5 1.7
5 Imports of goods and services 11.1 3.7 1.8 2.5 4.1 3.2 2.8
Contributions to real GDP growth (pps.)
6 - Final domestic demand 4.4 1.6 1.0 1.1 2.1 1.8 1.8
7 - Change in inventories 0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
8 - Net exports 2.3 0.2 1.2 1.3 -0.1 -0.3 -0.5
9 Output gap, planned (% of potential GDP) 0.5 1.6 0.5 0.9
1 1.5 0.7
10 Output gap, recalculated 1.3 1.3 1.8 0.9 1.4
11 Employment (% change) 1.5 0.3 1.1 1.0 0.5 0.4 0.6
12 Unemployment rate (%) 6.0 6.7 6.7 6.5 6.4 6.7 6.5
13 Labour productivity (% change) 5.2 1.4 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.2 0.7
14 HICP inflation (% change) 8.1 5.1 5.3 5.5 2.9 3.3 3.2
15 GDP deflator 5.0 5.7 6.9 6.8 3.0 2.9 2.9
16 Comp. of employees (per head, % change) 5.7 6.9 8.3 7.0 4.9 5.0 3.7
Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the
17 -0.4 2.4 3.8 2.6 1.0 1.8 2.1
rest of the world (% of GDP)
1
Output gap as recalculated by the Commission services on the basis of the Plan (or Programme) scenario, using the commonly
agreed methodology.
Source: Stability Programme 2023 (SP); Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP); Commission 2023 autumn forecast (COM);
Commission calculations.
110
Portugal
Table 17.2: General government budgetary position
Change in ratio:
2022 2023 2024 2022-2024
# Variables (pps. of GDP)
Outturn SP DBP COM SP DBP COM DBP
1=2+3+4+5 Revenue (% of GDP) 43.8 44.4 43.5 43.3 43.9 44.7 44.6 1.0
of which:
2 - Taxes on production and imports 15.0 14.7 14.4 14.3 14.7 15.0 14.9 0.0
3 - Current taxes on income, wealth, etc. 10.6 10.4 10.5 10.5 10.3 10.1 10.1 -0.5
4 - Social contributions 12.2 12.2 12.3 12.2 12.2 12.3 12.3 0.1
5 - Other (residual) 6.0 7.2 6.3 6.3 6.8 7.4 7.4 1.4
6 RRF grants as included in the revenue projections 0.3 1.4 0.8 0.8 1.3 1.9 1.9 1.6
7 Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8=9+16 Expenditure (% of GDP) 44.1 44.8 42.6 42.5 44.1 44.5 44.4 0.4
of which:
9 - Primary expenditure 42.2 42.5 40.5 40.5 41.4 42.2 42.2 0.1
of which:
10 - Compensation of employees 10.7 10.7 10.5 10.5 10.6 10.6 10.7 -0.1
11 - Intermediate consumption 5.5 5.9 5.5 5.5 5.7 5.6 5.5 0.1
12 - Social payments 18.5 17.9 17.7 17.5 17.9 18.1 18.0 -0.4
13 - Subsidies 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.8 -0.4
14 - Gross fixed capital formation 2.4 3.2 2.8 2.7 3.4 3.3 3.2 0.9
15 - Other 4.0 3.5 3.2 3.4 3.1 3.9 4.1 -0.1
16 - Interest expenditure 1.9 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.7 2.3 2.2 0.3
17=6-7 Expenditure financed by RRF grants 0.3 1.5 0.8 0.8 1.3 1.9 1.9 1.6
18=1-8 General government balance (% of GDP) -0.3 -0.4 0.8 0.8 -0.2 0.2 0.1 0.6
19=1-9 Primary balance 1.6 1.9 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.4 0.9
20 Cyclically adjusted balance (% of GDP) -1.0 -0.6 0.0 0.0 -0.4 -0.2 -0.3 0.8
21 One-offs (% of GDP) -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1
22=20-21 Structural balance (% of GDP) -0.9 -0.5 0.0 0.0 -0.4 -0.1 -0.1 0.9
23=22+16 Structural primary balance 1.0 1.8 2.1 2.0 2.3 2.2 2.1 1.2
Source: Stability Programme 2023 (SP); Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP); Commission 2023 autumn forecast (COM);
Commission calculations
111
Portugal
Table 17.3: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance
2022 2023 2024
# Variables
Outturn COM COM
Structural fiscal indicators:
1 Structural balance (% of GDP) -0.9 0.0 -0.1
2 Medium-term budgetary objective (MTO) -0.5
3 At or above MTO? Yes
4=2-1 Distance to MTO (pps. of GDP) n.a.
Recommended fiscal adjustment for 2024:
1
Recommended maximum growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (%
5 1.8
change)
6 Projected growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (% change) 5.7
Difference from recommended growth in net nationally financed primary
7=5-6 2 -3.9
expenditure (pps.)
3
Total net budgetary cost of energy measures (% of GDP):
8 - level 1.9 1.3 0.7
9 - change 1.9 -0.6 -0.6
4
10=13+9 Difference between fiscal adjustment and savings from energy measures (pps.) -1.0
Expenditure-based fiscal indicators:
5
11=12+13 Fiscal stance (pps. of GDP) -1.2 -0.1 -1.4
of which contribution from:
12 - EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds) 0.6 -0.6 -1.1
13=14+15+16 - Net nationally financed primary expenditure -1.9 0.5 -0.4
including:
14 - Net nationally financed primary current expenditure -1.7 0.3 -0.4
15 - Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation 0.0 -0.1 -0.1
16 - Nationally financed other capital expenditure -0.1 0.3 0.1
1
Corresponding (maximum) growth rate of nationally financed primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of
discretionary revenue measures, and excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, consistent with achieving the annual
(minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term objective (MTO).
2
A negative (positive) sign indicates that, assuming unchanged policies, net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected
to grow at a rate above (below) the recommended growth rate.
3
Energy support measures less revenue from new (taxes and levies on) windfall profits by energy producers.
4
A negative (positive) sign indicates that net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected to decrease at a rate less than
(more than) the savings made from winding down the energy measures.
5
The fiscal stance is measured as the change in general government primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary
impact of discretionary revenue measures and COVID-19 pandemic-related temporary emergency measures, excluding cyclical
unemployment expenditure, but including the change in expenditure financed by non-repayable support (grants) from the
Recovery and Resilience Facility and other EU funds relative to the medium-term (10-year) average potential nominal GDP growth
rate. A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (a shortfall) of net primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential
GDP growth, corresponding to an expansionary (a contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 1 on page 5 of these
Fiscal Statistical Tables.
Source: Commission 2023 autumn forecast (COM); Commission calculations
112
Portugal
Table 17.4: Debt developments
2023 2024
# Variables Outturn
SP DBP COM SP DBP COM
1 Gross debt ratio1 (% of GDP) 112.4 107.5 103.0 103.4 103.0 98.9 100.3
2=3+4+8 Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP) -12.1 -6.4 -9.4 -9.0 -4.5 -4.2 -3.1
2
Contributions :
3 Primary balance -1.6 -1.9 -3.0 -2.8 -2.6 -2.5 -2.4
4≈5+6+7 'Snow-ball' effect -11.6 -5.7 -7.4 -7.4 -2.5 -2.1 -2.0
of which:
5 - Interest expenditure 1.9 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.7 2.3 2.2
6 - Real growth effect -7.6 -1.9 -2.2 -2.3 -2.1 -1.5 -1.3
7 - Inflation effect -5.6 -6.0 -7.1 -7.0 -3.1 -2.8 -2.9
8 'Stock-flow' adjustment 1.1 1.2 1.0 1.2 0.5 0.5 1.3
1
End of period.
2
The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the
impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The ‘stock-flow
adjustment’ includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant
disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects.
Source: Stability Programme 2023 (SP); Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP); Commission 2023 autumn forecast (COM);
Commission calculations
113
Portugal
Table 17.5: Fiscal policy measures taken by general government - revenue side
ESA2010 category 2023 2024
#
(% of GDP) DBP
1 Taxes on production and imports -0.4 0.6
2 Current taxes on income, wealth, etc. -0.4 -0.6
3 Social contributions - -
4 Property income - -
5 Capital taxes - -
6 Other 0.0 0.0
7=1+2+3+4+5+6 Total -0.9 0.0
The budgetary impact in the table is the aggregated impact of the measures as reported by the national authorities. A positive
(negative) sign implies that general government revenue increases (decreases) as a consequence of the measures.
Source: Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP)
Table 17.6: Fiscal policy measures taken by general government - expenditure side
ESA2010 category 2023 2024
#
(% of GDP) DBP
1 Compensation of employees 0.4 0.6
2 Intermediate consumption -0.2 0.0
3 Social payments -0.4 0.0
4 Interest expenditure - -
5 Subsidies -0.2 -0.1
6 Gross fixed capital formation 0.0 0.0
7 Capital transfers -0.6 0.0
8 Other -0.2 0.1
9=1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8 Total -1.1 0.6
The budgetary impact in the table is the aggregated impact of the measures as reported by the national authorities. A positive
(negative) sign implies that general government expenditure increases (decreases) as a consequence of the measures.
Source: Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP)
114
Portugal
Table 17.7: RRF – Grants
# Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
1 RRF grants as included in the revenue projections 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.9 n.a. n.a.
2 Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EU 0.0 0.8 0.2 1.7 1.1 n.a. n.a.
# Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
1 Total current expenditure 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 n.a. n.a.
2 Gross fixed capital formation 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 n.a. n.a.
3 Capital transfers 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 n.a. n.a.
4=2+3 Total capital expenditure 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 n.a. n.a.
# Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
1 Reduction in tax revenue 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 n.a. n.a.
2 Other costs with impact on revenue 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 n.a. n.a.
3 Financial transactions 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 n.a. n.a.
The table shows the data as reported in the Plan, rounded to one decimal place (small figures may therefore be shown as 0.0).
Source: Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024
115
Portugal
Table 17.8: RRF – Loans
# Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the Plan (% of GDP)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
1 Disbursements of RRF loans from EU 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 n.a. n.a.
2 Repayments of RRF loans to EU 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 n.a. n.a.
# Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
1 Total current expenditure 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 n.a. n.a.
2 Gross fixed capital formation 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 n.a. n.a.
3 Capital transfers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 n.a. n.a.
4=2+3 Total capital expenditure 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 n.a. n.a.
# Other costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
1 Reduction in tax revenue 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 n.a. n.a.
2 Other costs with impact on revenue 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 n.a. n.a.
3 Financial transactions 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 n.a. n.a.
The table shows the data as reported in the Plan, rounded to one decimal place (small figures may therefore be shown as 0.0).
Source: Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024
116
18. SLOVENIA
Table 18.1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts
2022 2023 2024
# Variables
Outturn SP DBP COM SP DBP COM
1=6+7+8 Real GDP (% change) 2.5 1.8 1.6 1.3 2.5 2.8 2.0
2 Private consumption 3.6 1.2 0.9 -0.4 1.8 2.3 1.7
3 Gross fixed capital formation 3.5 2.8 4.5 8.5 2.2 5.5 3.4
4 Exports of goods and services 7.2 2.7 0.1 -0.8 4.1 3.3 2.8
5 Imports of goods and services 9.0 1.8 -3.9 -4.2 3.6 5.3 3.3
Contributions to real GDP growth (pps.)
6 - Final domestic demand 2.5 1.5 1.7 2.1 1.9 2.9 2.2
7 - Change in inventories 1.0 -0.5 -3.8 -3.8 0.0 1.5 0.0
8 - Net exports -1.0 0.8 3.7 3.1 0.6 -1.5 -0.2
9 Output gap, planned (% of potential GDP) 1.8 0.7 1.4 0.7
1 1.5 0.6
10 Output gap, recalculated 3.1 2.2 1.2 1.3 0.6
11 Employment (% change) 2.9 1.0 0.5 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.9
12 Unemployment rate (%) 4.0 -5.1 -7.1 3.6 -5.0 -5.2 3.7
13 Labour productivity (% change) -0.4 8.6 9.1 0.2 5.8 5.9 1.0
14 HICP inflation (% change) 9.3 7.1 7.6 7.5 4.2 3.9 3.9
15 GDP deflator 6.5 7.7 8.7 8.7 3.9 4.0 3.8
16 Comp. of employees (per head, % change) 5.0 7.3 10.2 9.2 5.8 6.5 5.9
Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the
17 -1.1 0.0 0.0 3.3 0.0 0.0 1.3
rest of the world (% of GDP)
1
Output gap as recalculated by the Commission services on the basis of the Plan (or Programme) scenario, using the commonly
agreed methodology.
Source: Stability Programme 2023 (SP); Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP); Commission 2023 autumn forecast (COM);
Commission calculations.
117
Slovenia
Table 18.2: General government budgetary position
Change in ratio:
2022 2023 2024 2022-2024
# Variables (pps. of GDP)
Outturn SP DBP COM SP DBP COM DBP
1=2+3+4+5 Revenue (% of GDP) 44.1 42.4 44.0 44.1 41.8 44.0 44.3 -0.2
of which:
2 - Taxes on production and imports 13.3 12.3 12.7 12.9 12.4 12.7 13.1 -0.6
3 - Current taxes on income, wealth, etc. 8.0 7.5 7.9 7.8 7.6 8.0 7.4 0.0
4 - Social contributions 16.3 15.8 16.2 16.3 15.7 17.0 17.3 0.6
5 - Other (residual) 6.6 6.9 7.1 7.1 6.0 6.3 6.5 -0.3
6 RRF grants as included in the revenue projections 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.4
7 Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants 0.0 0.0 n.a. 0.0 0.0 n.a. 0.0 n.a.
8=9+16 Expenditure (% of GDP) 47.2 46.5 48.4 47.9 44.5 47.8 47.6 0.6
of which:
9 - Primary expenditure 46.0 45.3 47.3 46.6 43.2 46.5 46.3 0.4
of which:
10 - Compensation of employees 11.4 10.9 11.4 11.4 10.8 11.2 11.4 -0.1
11 - Intermediate consumption 6.6 6.0 6.4 6.4 6.0 6.3 6.4 -0.2
12 - Social payments 18.5 17.0 17.6 17.8 17.3 18.3 18.7 -0.3
13 - Subsidies 1.2 2.5 2.1 1.8 1.5 1.3 1.3 0.1
14 - Gross fixed capital formation 5.4 6.4 6.3 6.0 5.5 6.3 5.9 0.9
15 - Other 3.0 2.5 3.5 3.2 2.1 3.1 2.8 0.1
16 - Interest expenditure 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 0.2
17=6-7 Expenditure financed by RRF grants 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.6
18=1-8 General government balance (% of GDP) -3.0 -4.1 -4.5 -3.7 -2.8 -3.8 -3.3 -0.8
19=1-9 Primary balance -1.9 -2.9 -3.3 -2.5 -1.5 -2.5 -2.0 -0.6
20 Cyclically adjusted balance (% of GDP) -4.5 -4.9 -4.8 -4.4 -3.4 -4.1 -3.6 0.3
21 One-offs (% of GDP) 0.0 n.a. -0.6 -0.7 n.a. -1.2 -1.2 -1.2
22=20-21 Structural balance (% of GDP) -4.5 -4.9 -4.2 -3.7 -3.4 -2.9 -2.4 1.5
23=22+16 Structural primary balance -3.3 -3.8 -3.0 -2.5 -2.1 -1.6 -1.1 1.7
Source: Stability Programme 2023 (SP); Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP); Commission 2023 autumn forecast (COM);
Commission calculations
118
Slovenia
Table 18.3: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance
2022 2023 2024
# Variables
Outturn COM COM
Structural fiscal indicators:
1 Structural balance (% of GDP) -4.5 -3.7 -2.4
2 Medium-term budgetary objective (MTO) 0.75
3 At or above MTO? No
4=2-1 Distance to MTO (pps. of GDP) 3.2
Recommended fiscal adjustment for 2024:
1
Recommended maximum growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (%
5 5.5
change)
6 Projected growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (% change) 2.9
Difference from recommended growth in net nationally financed primary
7=5-6 2 2.7
expenditure (pps.)
3
Total net budgetary cost of energy measures (% of GDP):
8 - level 1.0 0.9 0.0
9 - change 1.0 -0.1 -0.9
4
10=13+9 Difference between fiscal adjustment and savings from energy measures (pps.) 0.6
Expenditure-based fiscal indicators:
5
11=12+13 Fiscal stance (pps. of GDP) -1.8 -0.2 1.5
of which contribution from:
12 - EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds) 0.1 -0.6 0.0
13=14+15+16 - Net nationally financed primary expenditure -1.9 0.4 1.5
including:
14 - Net nationally financed primary current expenditure -0.9 0.1 0.7
15 - Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation -0.8 -0.1 0.7
16 - Nationally financed other capital expenditure -0.2 0.3 0.2
1
Corresponding (maximum) growth rate of nationally financed primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of
discretionary revenue measures, and excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, consistent with achieving the annual
(minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term objective (MTO).
2
A negative (positive) sign indicates that, assuming unchanged policies, net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected
to grow at a rate above (below) the recommended growth rate.
3
Energy support measures less revenue from new (taxes and levies on) windfall profits by energy producers.
4
A negative (positive) sign indicates that net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected to decrease at a rate less than
(more than) the savings made from winding down the energy measures.
5
The fiscal stance is measured as the change in general government primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary
impact of discretionary revenue measures and COVID-19 pandemic-related temporary emergency measures, excluding cyclical
unemployment expenditure, but including the change in expenditure financed by non-repayable support (grants) from the
Recovery and Resilience Facility and other EU funds relative to the medium-term (10-year) average potential nominal GDP growth
rate. A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (a shortfall) of net primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential
GDP growth, corresponding to an expansionary (a contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 1 on page 5 of these
Fiscal Statistical Tables.
Source: Commission 2023 autumn forecast (COM); Commission calculations
119
Slovenia
Table 18.4: Debt developments
2023 2024
# Variables Outturn
SP DBP COM SP DBP COM
1 Gross debt ratio1 (% of GDP) 72.3 68.9 69.9 69.3 66.5 68.9 68.4
2=3+4+8 Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP) -2.1 -1.0 -2.4 -3.0 -2.4 -1.0 -0.8
2
Contributions :
3 Primary balance 1.9 2.9 3.3 2.5 1.5 2.5 2.0
4≈5+6+7 'Snow-ball' effect -5.1 -5.0 -5.6 -5.4 -2.9 -3.2 -2.5
of which:
5 - Interest expenditure 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3
6 - Real growth effect -1.7 -1.1 -1.0 -0.9 -1.6 -1.8 -1.3
7 - Inflation effect -4.4 -5.0 -5.7 -5.7 -2.5 -2.6 -2.5
8 'Stock-flow' adjustment 1.1 1.1 -0.1 -0.1 -1.1 -0.3 -0.3
1
End of period.
2
The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the
impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The ‘stock-flow
adjustment’ includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant
disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects.
Source: Stability Programme 2023 (SP); Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP); Commission 2023 autumn forecast (COM);
Commission calculations
120
Slovenia
Table 18.5: Fiscal policy measures taken by general government - revenue side
ESA2010 category 2023 2024
#
(% of GDP) DBP
1 Taxes on production and imports 0.2 0.3
2 Current taxes on income, wealth, etc. 0.4 0.1
3 Social contributions - -
4 Property income - -
5 Capital taxes - -
6 Other - -
7=1+2+3+4+5+6 Total 0.6 0.4
The budgetary impact in the table is the aggregated impact of the measures as reported by the national authorities. A positive
(negative) sign implies that general government revenue increases (decreases) as a consequence of the measures.
Source: Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP)
Table 18.6: Fiscal policy measures taken by general government - expenditure side
ESA2010 category 2023 2024
#
(% of GDP) DBP
1 Compensation of employees -0.2 -0.1
2 Intermediate consumption 0.0 -0.1
3 Social payments -0.3 -0.1
4 Interest expenditure - -
5 Subsidies 0.5 -1.1
6 Gross fixed capital formation 0.1 0.5
7 Capital transfers 0.6 -0.2
8 Other -0.2 0.3
9=1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8 Total 0.5 -0.8
The budgetary impact in the table is the aggregated impact of the measures as reported by the national authorities. A positive
(negative) sign implies that general government expenditure increases (decreases) as a consequence of the measures.
Source: Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP)
121
Slovenia
Table 18.7: RRF – Grants
# Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
1 RRF grants as included in the revenue projections n.a. 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.3
2 Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EU n.a. 0.4 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.6
# Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
1 Total current expenditure n.a. 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1
2 Gross fixed capital formation n.a. 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1
3 Capital transfers n.a. 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
4=2+3 Total capital expenditure n.a. 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2
# Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
1 Reduction in tax revenue n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
2 Other costs with impact on revenue n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
3 Financial transactions n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
The table shows the data as reported in the Plan, rounded to one decimal place (small figures may therefore be shown as 0.0).
Source: Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024
122
Slovenia
Table 18.8: RRF – Loans
# Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the Plan (% of GDP)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
1 Disbursements of RRF loans from EU n.a. 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.5
2 Repayments of RRF loans to EU n.a. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
# Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
1 Total current expenditure n.a. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
2 Gross fixed capital formation n.a. 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1
3 Capital transfers n.a. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
4=2+3 Total capital expenditure n.a. 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1
# Other costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
1 Reduction in tax revenue n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
2 Other costs with impact on revenue n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
3 Financial transactions n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
The table shows the data as reported in the Plan, rounded to one decimal place (small figures may therefore be shown as 0.0).
Source: Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024
123
19. SLOVAKIA
Table 19.1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts
2022 2023 2024
# Variables
Outturn SP DBP COM SP DBP COM
1=6+7+8 Real GDP (% change) 1.8 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.8 1.3 1.7
2 Private consumption 5.5 0.7 -1.9 -1.6 1.1 0.9 1.5
3 Gross fixed capital formation 4.5 14.6 8.4 5.0 1.2 3.1 2.5
4 Exports of goods and services 3.0 1.3 -1.9 -1.2 6.9 5.7 5.7
5 Imports of goods and services 4.2 4.2 -7.3 -6.0 6.2 7.0 6.3
Contributions to real GDP growth (pps.)
6 - Final domestic demand 3.1 4.6 0.2 -0.2 1.0 0.6 1.7
7 - Change in inventories -0.2 -0.9 -4.5 -3.7 0.0 1.7 0.6
8 - Net exports -1.2 -2.7 5.2 5.1 0.7 -0.9 -0.5
9 Output gap, planned (% of potential GDP) -1.2 -0.3 -1.2 -1.2
1 -0.4 -0.5
10 Output gap, recalculated 0.5 -0.9 -0.1 -1.3 -0.5
11 Employment (% change) 1.8 0.5 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1
12 Unemployment rate (%) 6.1 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.4 5.7 5.4
13 Labour productivity (% change) 0.0 0.8 1.1 0.7 1.3 1.0 1.6
14 HICP inflation (% change) 12.1 9.7 11.0 10.8 5.5 4.8 5.2
15 GDP deflator 7.5 7.8 9.6 10.2 5.5 6.4 5.3
16 Comp. of employees (per head, % change) 6.0 8.9 9.0 9.7 7.8 8.4 7.9
Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the
17 -7.9 -5.1 -5.4 -2.5 -4.5 -5.5 -3.2
rest of the world (% of GDP)
1
Output gap as recalculated by the Commission services on the basis of the Plan (or Programme) scenario, using the commonly
agreed methodology.
Source: Stability Programme 2023 (SP); Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP); Commission 2023 autumn forecast (COM);
Commission calculations.
124
Slovakia
Table 19.2: General government budgetary position
Change in ratio:
2022 2023 2024 2022-2024
# Variables (pps. of GDP)
Outturn SP DBP COM SP DBP COM DBP
1=2+3+4+5 Revenue (% of GDP) 40.2 42.4 43.1 42.1 39.4 38.7 38.9 -1.5
of which:
2 - Taxes on production and imports 12.3 12.2 12.1 12.2 11.8 11.4 11.6 -0.9
3 - Current taxes on income, wealth, etc. 7.7 7.8 7.7 7.6 7.6 7.3 7.3 -0.5
4 - Social contributions 14.9 15.4 15.4 15.3 15.7 15.2 15.4 0.3
5 - Other (residual) 5.3 7.0 8.0 7.1 4.4 4.9 4.7 -0.4
6 RRF grants as included in the revenue projections 0.0 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.0
7 Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants 0.0 0.0 n.a. 0.0 0.0 n.a. 0.0 n.a.
8=9+16 Expenditure (% of GDP) 42.3 48.7 49.3 47.8 44.1 45.3 45.4 3.0
of which:
9 - Primary expenditure 41.2 47.8 48.4 46.8 42.9 44.2 44.2 3.0
of which:
10 - Compensation of employees 10.6 10.4 10.4 10.7 10.3 10.6 10.8 -0.1
11 - Intermediate consumption 6.0 8.2 7.7 6.1 5.7 6.3 5.8 0.4
12 - Social payments 17.9 19.1 19.7 19.2 19.5 19.8 19.4 2.0
13 - Subsidies 1.1 2.0 2.5 3.1 0.7 0.9 1.2 -0.2
14 - Gross fixed capital formation 3.0 5.1 5.4 4.8 4.0 3.4 3.7 0.4
15 - Other 2.6 3.0 2.8 2.9 2.8 3.2 3.3 0.5
16 - Interest expenditure 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.2 0.0
17=6-7 Expenditure financed by RRF grants 0.0 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.9
18=1-8 General government balance (% of GDP) -2.0 -6.3 -6.2 -5.7 -4.7 -6.5 -6.5 -4.5
19=1-9 Primary balance -1.0 -5.3 -5.3 -4.7 -3.5 -5.4 -5.3 -4.5
20 Cyclically adjusted balance (% of GDP) -2.2 -5.8 -6.1 -5.6 -4.3 -6.2 -6.3 -4.0
21 One-offs (% of GDP) 0.0 -1.5 -1.4 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.0 -0.4
22=20-21 Structural balance (% of GDP) -2.2 -4.3 -4.7 -5.6 -4.3 -5.8 -6.3 -3.6
23=22+16 Structural primary balance -1.2 -3.4 -3.8 -4.6 -3.1 -4.7 -5.1 -3.5
Source: Stability Programme 2023 (SP); Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP); Commission 2023 autumn forecast (COM);
Commission calculations
125
Slovakia
Table 19.3: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance
2022 2023 2024
# Variables
Outturn COM COM
Structural fiscal indicators:
1 Structural balance (% of GDP) -2.2 -5.6 -6.3
2 Medium-term budgetary objective (MTO) 0.25
3 At or above MTO? No
4=2-1 Distance to MTO (pps. of GDP) 6.5
Recommended fiscal adjustment for 2024:
1
Recommended maximum growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (%
5 5.7
change)
6 Projected growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (% change) 6.5
Difference from recommended growth in net nationally financed primary
7=5-6 2 -0.8
expenditure (pps.)
3
Total net budgetary cost of energy measures (% of GDP):
8 - level 0.2 2.1 -0.1
9 - change 0.2 2.0 -2.2
4
10=13+9 Difference between fiscal adjustment and savings from energy measures (pps.) -2.0
Expenditure-based fiscal indicators:
5
11=12+13 Fiscal stance (pps. of GDP) 1.1 -6.2 2.4
of which contribution from:
12 - EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds) 0.1 -2.3 2.1
13=14+15+16 - Net nationally financed primary expenditure 1.0 -3.9 0.3
including:
14 - Net nationally financed primary current expenditure 1.0 -3.7 0.6
15 - Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation 0.1 -0.5 -0.3
16 - Nationally financed other capital expenditure -0.2 0.3 -0.1
1
Corresponding (maximum) growth rate of nationally financed primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of
discretionary revenue measures, and excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, consistent with achieving the annual
(minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term objective (MTO).
2
A negative (positive) sign indicates that, assuming unchanged policies, net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected
to grow at a rate above (below) the recommended growth rate.
3
Energy support measures less revenue from new (taxes and levies on) windfall profits by energy producers.
4
A negative (positive) sign indicates that net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected to decrease at a rate less than
(more than) the savings made from winding down the energy measures.
5
The fiscal stance is measured as the change in general government primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary
impact of discretionary revenue measures and COVID-19 pandemic-related temporary emergency measures, excluding cyclical
unemployment expenditure, but including the change in expenditure financed by non-repayable support (grants) from the
Recovery and Resilience Facility and other EU funds relative to the medium-term (10-year) average potential nominal GDP growth
rate. A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (a shortfall) of net primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential
GDP growth, corresponding to an expansionary (a contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 1 on page 5 of these
Fiscal Statistical Tables.
Source: Commission 2023 autumn forecast (COM); Commission calculations
126
Slovakia
Table 19.4: Debt developments
2023 2024
# Variables Outturn
SP DBP COM SP DBP COM
1 Gross debt ratio1 (% of GDP) 57.8 58.7 57.1 56.7 59.3 60.0 59.9
2=3+4+8 Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP) -3.3 0.9 -0.7 -1.1 0.6 2.9 3.2
2
Contributions :
3 Primary balance 1.0 5.5 5.3 4.7 3.5 5.5 5.3
4≈5+6+7 'Snow-ball' effect -4.2 -3.9 -4.9 -5.0 -2.8 -3.0 -2.6
of which:
5 - Interest expenditure 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.2
6 - Real growth effect -1.0 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -1.0 -0.7 -0.9
7 - Inflation effect -4.2 -4.1 -5.0 -5.3 -3.0 -3.4 -2.8
8 'Stock-flow' adjustment -0.1 -0.8 -1.2 -0.8 -0.1 0.5 0.5
1
End of period.
2
The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the
impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The ‘stock-flow
adjustment’ includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant
disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects.
Source: Stability Programme 2023 (SP); Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP); Commission 2023 autumn forecast (COM);
Commission calculations
127
Slovakia
Table 19.5: Fiscal policy measures taken by general government - revenue side
ESA2010 category 2023 2024
#
(% of GDP) DBP
1 Taxes on production and imports -0.4 -0.4
2 Current taxes on income, wealth, etc. 0.1 -0.1
3 Social contributions 0.0 0.0
4 Property income - -
5 Capital taxes - -
6 Other 0.3 0.0
7=1+2+3+4+5+6 Total 0.0 -0.5
The budgetary impact in the table is the aggregated impact of the measures as reported by the national authorities. A positive
(negative) sign implies that general government revenue increases (decreases) as a consequence of the measures.
Source: Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP)
Table 19.6: Fiscal policy measures taken by general government - expenditure side
ESA2010 category 2023 2024
#
(% of GDP) DBP
1 Compensation of employees 0.2 0.2
2 Intermediate consumption -0.5 -0.3
3 Social payments 2.9 0.3
4 Interest expenditure - -
5 Subsidies 1.3 -1.5
6 Gross fixed capital formation 1.0 0.4
7 Capital transfers 0.0 0.0
8 Other 2.5 -1.0
9=1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8 Total 7.4 -1.8
The budgetary impact in the table is the aggregated impact of the measures as reported by the national authorities. A positive
(negative) sign implies that general government expenditure increases (decreases) as a consequence of the measures.
Source: Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP)
128
Slovakia
Table 19.7: RRF – Grants
# Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
1 RRF grants as included in the revenue projections n.a. 0.0 0.0 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.4
2 Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EU n.a. 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.1 0.7 0.2
# Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
1 Total current expenditure n.a. 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1
2 Gross fixed capital formation n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.2
3 Capital transfers n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1
4=2+3 Total capital expenditure n.a. 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.3
# Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
1 Reduction in tax revenue n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
2 Other costs with impact on revenue n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
3 Financial transactions n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
The table shows the data as reported in the Plan, rounded to one decimal place (small figures may therefore be shown as 0.0).
Source: Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024
129
20. FINLAND
Table 20.1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts
2022 2023 2024
# Variables
Outturn SP DBP COM SP DBP COM
1=6+7+8 Real GDP (% change) 1.6 -0.2 0.0 0.1 1.3 1.2 0.8
2 Private consumption 1.7 -0.6 -0.2 -0.1 1.4 1.0 0.8
3 Gross fixed capital formation 3.2 -0.6 -3.1 -4.1 0.2 2.1 0.9
4 Exports of goods and services 3.7 1.2 -0.8 0.0 3.9 4.1 2.3
5 Imports of goods and services 8.5 -1.5 -3.8 -4.5 2.8 3.6 1.6
Contributions to real GDP growth (pps.)
6 - Final domestic demand 1.8 -0.1 -0.4 -0.2 0.8 1.0 0.5
7 - Change in inventories 1.4 -1.3 -1.0 -1.9 0.0 0.0 0.0
8 - Net exports -1.9 1.2 1.4 2.2 0.4 0.2 0.3
9 Output gap, planned (% of potential GDP) -1.7 -1.9 -1.5 -1.7
1 -1.6 -1.8
10 Output gap, recalculated -0.7 -1.5 -1.8 -1.2 -1.7
11 Employment (% change) 2.9 -0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1
12 Unemployment rate (%) 6.8 7.0 7.1 7.2 6.8 7.2 7.3
13 Labour productivity (% change) -1.3 0.2 -0.3 -0.2 1.0 1.1 0.7
14 HICP inflation (% change) 7.2 4.0 4.3 4.4 1.9 1.6 1.9
15 GDP deflator 5.4 4.1 4.8 4.8 2.2 2.2 2.2
16 Comp. of employees (per head, % change) 2.9 5.0 5.1 5.1 3.6 2.7 2.7
Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the
17 -2.5 -1.7 -1.3 -0.4 -1.2 -1.1 -0.2
rest of the world (% of GDP)
The ‘SP’ values are based on the Stability Programme submitted by Finland on 23 March 2023, prepared with ‘no policy change’
assumptions in the context of the Finnish parliamentary election held on 2 April 2023. A new Stability Programme was submitted
by Finland on 9 October 2023, in which the relevant ‘SP’ values are in line with the ‘DBP’ values shown above.
1
Output gap as recalculated by the Commission services on the basis of the Plan (or Programme) scenario, using the commonly
agreed methodology.
Source: Stability Programme 2023 (SP); Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP); Commission 2023 autumn forecast (COM);
Commission calculations.
130
Finland
Table 20.2: General government budgetary position
Change in ratio:
2022 2023 2024 2022-2024
# Variables (pps. of GDP)
Outturn SP DBP COM SP DBP COM DBP
1=2+3+4+5 Revenue (% of GDP) 52.5 52.8 52.3 52.1 53.0 51.5 51.6 -1.0
of which:
2 - Taxes on production and imports 13.5 13.2 12.9 12.9 13.0 12.7 12.7 -0.8
3 - Current taxes on income, wealth, etc. 17.0 16.8 16.2 16.2 17.1 16.5 16.5 -0.5
4 - Social contributions 12.0 12.1 12.1 12.1 12.0 11.4 11.4 -0.6
5 - Other (residual) 10.0 10.7 11.1 10.9 10.9 10.9 11.0 0.9
6 RRF grants as included in the revenue projections 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1
7 Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants 0.0 n.a. n.a. 0.0 n.a. n.a. 0.0 n.a.
8=9+16 Expenditure (% of GDP) 53.3 55.4 54.7 54.5 55.5 54.7 54.8 1.4
of which:
9 - Primary expenditure 52.8 54.6 53.9 53.7 54.2 53.5 53.6 0.7
of which:
10 - Compensation of employees 12.4 12.5 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.3 12.3 -0.1
11 - Intermediate consumption 11.4 12.0 12.2 12.2 12.0 12.1 12.1 0.7
12 - Social payments 20.7 21.5 21.2 21.1 21.7 21.4 21.4 0.7
13 - Subsidies 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 -0.2
14 - Gross fixed capital formation 4.1 4.5 4.2 4.1 4.5 4.3 4.3 0.2
15 - Other 3.0 3.2 3.0 3.0 2.7 2.5 2.6 -0.5
16 - Interest expenditure 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.3 1.2 1.2 0.6
17=6-7 Expenditure financed by RRF grants 0.1 0.2 n.a. 0.2 0.2 n.a. 0.2 n.a.
18=1-8 General government balance (% of GDP) -0.8 -2.6 -2.4 -2.4 -2.6 -3.2 -3.2 -2.4
19=1-9 Primary balance -0.2 -1.7 -1.6 -1.6 -1.3 -2.0 -2.0 -1.8
20 Cyclically adjusted balance (% of GDP) -0.4 -1.6 -1.3 -1.5 -1.7 -2.2 -2.2 -1.8
21 One-offs (% of GDP) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
22=20-21 Structural balance (% of GDP) -0.4 -1.6 -1.3 -1.5 -1.7 -2.2 -2.2 -1.8
23=22+16 Structural primary balance 0.2 -0.8 -0.5 -0.7 -0.4 -1.0 -1.0 -1.2
The ‘SP’ values are based on the Stability Programme submitted by Finland on 23 March 2023, prepared with ‘no policy change’
assumptions in the context of the Finnish parliamentary election held on 2 April 2023. A new Stability Programme was submitted
by Finland on 9 October 2023, in which the relevant ‘SP’ values are in line with the ‘DBP’ values shown above.
Source: Stability Programme 2023 (SP); Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP); Commission 2023 autumn forecast (COM);
Commission calculations
131
Finland
Table 20.3: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance
2022 2023 2024
# Variables
Outturn COM COM
Structural fiscal indicators:
1 Structural balance (% of GDP) -0.4 -1.5 -2.2
2 Medium-term budgetary objective (MTO) -0.5
3 At or above MTO? No
4=2-1 Distance to MTO (pps. of GDP) 1.7
Recommended fiscal adjustment for 2024:
1
Recommended maximum growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (%
5 2.2
change)
6 Projected growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (% change) 4.4
Difference from recommended growth in net nationally financed primary
7=5-6 2 -2.2
expenditure (pps.)
3
Total net budgetary cost of energy measures (% of GDP):
8 - level 0.1 0.3 0.0
9 - change 0.1 0.2 -0.3
4
10=13+9 Difference between fiscal adjustment and savings from energy measures (pps.) -0.9
Expenditure-based fiscal indicators:
5
11=12+13 Fiscal stance (pps. of GDP) 0.2 -0.6 -0.5
of which contribution from:
12 - EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds) -0.1 -0.1 0.1
13=14+15+16 - Net nationally financed primary expenditure 0.2 -0.5 -0.5
including:
14 - Net nationally financed primary current expenditure 0.4 -0.5 -0.6
15 - Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation 0.0 0.0 -0.1
16 - Nationally financed other capital expenditure -0.2 0.0 0.2
1
Corresponding (maximum) growth rate of nationally financed primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of
discretionary revenue measures, and excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, consistent with achieving the annual
(minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term objective (MTO).
2
A negative (positive) sign indicates that, assuming unchanged policies, net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected
to grow at a rate above (below) the recommended growth rate.
3
Energy support measures less revenue from new (taxes and levies on) windfall profits by energy producers.
4
A negative (positive) sign indicates that net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected to decrease at a rate less than
(more than) the savings made from winding down the energy measures.
5
The fiscal stance is measured as the change in general government primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary
impact of discretionary revenue measures and COVID-19 pandemic-related temporary emergency measures, excluding cyclical
unemployment expenditure, but including the change in expenditure financed by non-repayable support (grants) from the
Recovery and Resilience Facility and other EU funds relative to the medium-term (10-year) average potential nominal GDP growth
rate. A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (a shortfall) of net primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential
GDP growth, corresponding to an expansionary (a contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 1 on page 5 of these
Fiscal Statistical Tables.
Source: Commission 2023 autumn forecast (COM); Commission calculations
132
Finland
Table 20.4: Debt developments
2023 2024
# Variables Outturn
SP DBP COM SP DBP COM
1 Gross debt ratio1 (% of GDP) 73.3 74.4 74.2 74.3 76.9 76.8 76.9
2=3+4+8 Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP) 0.8 1.4 1.3 1.0 2.5 2.6 2.7
2
Contributions :
3 Primary balance 0.2 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.3 2.0 2.0
4≈5+6+7 'Snow-ball' effect -4.2 -1.8 -2.6 -2.6 -1.2 -1.2 -1.0
of which:
5 - Interest expenditure 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.8 1.3 1.2 1.2
6 - Real growth effect -1.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.9 -0.9 -0.6
7 - Inflation effect -3.6 -2.9 -3.4 -3.4 -1.6 -1.6 -1.6
8 'Stock-flow' adjustment 4.8 1.5 1.9 2.0 2.4 1.8 1.6
The ‘SP’ values are based on the Stability Programme submitted by Finland on 23 March 2023, prepared with ‘no policy change’
assumptions in the context of the Finnish parliamentary election held on 2 April 2023. A new Stability Programme was submitted
by Finland on 9 October 2023, in which the relevant ‘SP’ values are in line with the ‘DBP’ values shown above.
1
End of period.
2
The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the
impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The ‘stock-flow
adjustment’ includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant
disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects.
Source: Stability Programme 2023 (SP); Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP); Commission 2023 autumn forecast (COM);
Commission calculations
133
Finland
Table 20.5: Fiscal policy measures taken by general government - revenue side
ESA2010 category 2023 2024
#
(% of GDP) DBP
1 Taxes on production and imports 0.0 0.0
2 Current taxes on income, wealth, etc. 0.0 0.0
3 Social contributions 0.0 0.0
4 Property income - -
5 Capital taxes - -
6 Other - -
7=1+2+3+4+5+6 Total 0.0 0.0
The budgetary impact in the table is the aggregated impact of the measures as reported by the national authorities. A positive
(negative) sign implies that general government revenue increases (decreases) as a consequence of the measures.
Source: Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP)
Table 20.6: Fiscal policy measures taken by general government - expenditure side
ESA2010 category 2023 2024
#
(% of GDP) DBP
1 Compensation of employees - -
2 Intermediate consumption - -
3 Social payments 0.0 0.0
4 Interest expenditure - -
5 Subsidies - -
6 Gross fixed capital formation 0.0 0.0
7 Capital transfers - -
8 Other 0.0 0.0
9=1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8 Total 0.0 0.0
The budgetary impact in the table is the aggregated impact of the measures as reported by the national authorities. A positive
(negative) sign implies that general government expenditure increases (decreases) as a consequence of the measures.
Source: Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024 (DBP)
134
Finland
Table 20.7: RRF – Grants
# Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
1 RRF grants as included in the revenue projections 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1
2 Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EU 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1
# Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
1 Total current expenditure 0.0 0.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
2 Gross fixed capital formation 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
3 Capital transfers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
4=2+3 Total capital expenditure 0.0 0.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
# Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
1 Reduction in tax revenue 0.0 0.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
2 Other costs with impact on revenue 0.0 0.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
3 Financial transactions 0.0 0.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
The table shows the data as reported in the Plan, rounded to one decimal place (small figures may therefore be shown as 0.0).
Source: Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024
135
EUROOPA
KOMISJON
Brüssel, 21.11.2023
C(2023) 9505 final
KOMISJONI ARVAMUS,
21.11.2023,
Eesti eelarvekava kohta
{SWD(2023) 951 final}
(Ainult eestikeelne tekst on autentne)
ET ET
KOMISJONI ARVAMUS,
21.11.2023,
Eesti eelarvekava kohta
(Ainult eestikeelne tekst on autentne)
ÜLDISED KAALUTLUSED
1. Määrusega (EL) nr 473/20131 on kehtestatud sätted, millega tõhustatakse
eelarvepoliitika seiret euroalal, et tagada liikmesriikide eelarvete vastavus
stabiilsuse ja kasvu pakti ning majanduspoliitika koordineerimise Euroopa
poolaasta raames välja antud majanduspoliitilistele suunistele.
2. Määruse (EL) nr 473/2013 artikliga 6 on ette nähtud, et liikmesriigid esitavad igal
aastal 15. oktoobriks komisjonile ja eurorühmale eelarvekava, milles esitatakse
järgmise aasta eelarve-eesmärgid ning valitsemissektori ja selle allsektorite
järgmise aasta eelarveväljavaadete peamised aspektid.
3. 8. märtsil 2023 võttis komisjon vastu teatise,2 milles antakse eelarvepoliitika
suunised 2024. aastaks ja kinnitatakse, et 2023. aasta lõpus lõpetatakse stabiilsuse
ja kasvu pakti üldise vabastusklausli kohaldamine.
4. 26. aprillil 2023 esitas komisjon kolm seadusandlikku ettepanekut3 ELi
eelarveraamistiku põhjalikuks reformimiseks. Ettepanekute põhieesmärk on
parandada valitsemissektori võla jätkusuutlikkust ning edendada samal ajal
reformide ja investeeringute kaudu kestlikku ja kaasavat majanduskasvu. Komisjon
soovib ettepanekutega suurendada riikide isevastutust, lihtsustada
eelarveraamistikku ja keskenduda rohkem keskpikale perioodile, millega kaasneb
tõhus ja ühtsem nõuete täitmise tagamine. Ülemkogu 14. märtsi 2023. aasta ja
27. oktoobri 2023. aasta järelduste4 kohaselt on eesmärk viia ettepanekute
menetlemine lõpule 2023. aastal. Kuna majanduse juhtimise käimasoleva
läbivaatamise tulemustel põhinev uus õigusraamistik ei ole veel paigas,
kohaldatakse jätkuvalt kehtivat õigusraamistikku. 2023. aasta kevade riigipõhiste
soovituste eelarveosa sisaldas 26. aprilli 2023. aasta seadusandlike ettepanekute
neid elemente, mis on kooskõlas olemasolevate õigusaktidega.
1
Euroopa Parlamendi ja nõukogu 21. mai 2013. aasta määrus (EL) nr 473/2013 euroala liikmesriikide
eelarvekavade seire ja hindamise ning nende ülemäärase eelarvepuudujäägi korrigeerimise tagamise
ühiste eeskirjade kohta (ELT L 140, 27.5.2013, lk 11).
2
Komisjoni 8. märtsi 2023. aasta teatis nõukogule „Eelarvepoliitika suunised 2024. aastaks“
(COM(2023) 141 final).
3
Komisjoni 26. aprilli 2023. aasta ettepanek: Euroopa Parlamendi ja nõukogu määrus
majanduspoliitika tulemusliku koordineerimise ja mitmepoolse eelarvejärelevalve kohta ning millega
tunnistatakse kehtetuks määrus (EÜ) nr 1466/97 (COM(2023) 240 final); komisjoni 26. aprilli
2023. aasta ettepanek: nõukogu määrus, millega muudetakse nõukogu määrust (EÜ) nr 1467/97
ülemäärase eelarvepuudujäägi menetluse rakendamise kiirendamise ja selgitamise kohta (COM(2023)
241 final); komisjoni 26. aprilli 2023. aasta ettepanek: nõukogu direktiiv, millega muudetakse
nõukogu direktiivi 2011/85/EL liikmesriikide eelarveraamistiku nõuete kohta (COM(2023) 242
final).
4
Euroopa Ülemkogu kohtumine (26. ja 27. oktoober 2023) – järeldused (EUCO 14/23).
ET 1 ET
5. Nagu komisjon on teatanud oma eelarvepoliitika suunistes 2024. aastaks,5 teeb ta
nõukogule ettepaneku, et kehtivate õigusnormide kohased puudujäägipõhised
ülemäärase eelarvepuudujäägi menetlused algatataks 2024. aasta kevadel 2023.
aasta andmete põhjal. Liikmesriike kutsuti üles seda oma 2023. aasta eelarve
täitmisel ja 2024. aasta eelarvekavade koostamisel arvesse võtma.
6. Taaste- ja vastupidavusrahastust6 antakse rahalist toetust reformide ja
investeeringute rakendamiseks, eelkõige selleks, et edendada rohe- ja digipööret.
Rahastu eesmärk on samuti vähendada sõltuvust fossiilkütustest ja mitmekesistada
energiavarustust liidu tasandil, et suurendada liidu energiasüsteemi vastupidavust
(REPowerEU eesmärgid)7. Tänu rahastule suureneb liikmesriikide majanduse
vastupidavus ja potentsiaalne majanduskasv, mis toetab töökohtade loomist ja riigi
rahanduse jätkusuutlikkust. Osa sellest toetusest antakse tagastamatu toetusena,
millega kaasneb liidu rahastatav fiskaalne impulss. Koos ühtekuuluvuspoliitika
fondide ja õiglase ülemineku mehhanismiga toetab rahastu ELis õiglast ja kaasavat
taastumist kooskõlas Euroopa sotsiaalõiguste sambaga.
7. Majanduspoliitikas tuleks jätkuvalt tegeleda pikaajaliste probleemidega ja piirata
kiirest inflatsioonist tingitud riske. Kuigi euroala inflatsioon aeglustub, on see
endiselt üks suurimaid mureallikaid. On äärmiselt oluline, et inflatsioon aeglustuks
veelgi ja et inflatsiooniootused jääksid stabiilseks, mis nõuab ühtset raha- ja
eelarvepoliitikat, kuid samal ajal paindlikkuse säilitamist suure ebakindluse
tingimustes. Eelkõige tuleks 2023. ja 2024. aastal võimalikult kiiresti kaotada
energiahinnašokile reageerimiseks võetud erakorralised energiatoetusmeetmed ja
kasutada selle tulemusena kokku hoitavaid vahendeid valitsemissektori
eelarvepuudujäägi vähendamiseks. Kui uue energiahindade tõusu tõttu on vaja uusi
või jätkuvaid toetusmeetmeid, peaksid need olema suunatud haavatavate
leibkondade ja ettevõtete kaitsmisele, olema eelarve seisukohast vastuvõetava
maksumusega ning säilitama stiimulid energiasäästuks. Liikmesriigid peaksid
samuti jätkuvalt säilitama riiklikult rahastatavad investeeringud ning tagama taaste-
ja vastupidavusrahastu ja muude ELi vahendite tulemusliku kasutuselevõtu,
eelkõige rohe- ja digipöörde edendamiseks.
MÄRKUSED EESTI KOHTA
8. 13. oktoobril 2023 esitas Eesti 2024. aasta eelarvekava. Selle alusel ja võttes
arvesse nõukogu 14. juuli 2023. aasta soovitust Eestile,8 on komisjon kooskõlas
määruse (EL) nr 473/2013 artikliga 7 võtnud vastu järgmise arvamuse.
9. 24. mail 2023 avaldas komisjon aluslepingu artikli 126 lõike 3 kohase aruande9.
Kõnealuses aruandes hinnati Eesti eelarveseisundit, kuna riigi valitsemissektori
eelarvepuudujääk peaks 2023. aasta stabiilsusprogrammi kohaselt ületama 2023.
5
Komisjoni 8. märtsi 2023. aasta teatis nõukogule „Eelarvepoliitika suunised 2024. aastaks“
(COM(2023) 141 final).
6
Euroopa Parlamendi ja nõukogu 12. veebruari 2021. aasta määrus (EL) 2021/241, millega luuakse
taaste- ja vastupidavusrahastu (ELT L 57, 18.2.2021, lk 17).
7
Euroopa Parlamendi ja nõukogu 27. veebruari 2023. aasta määrus (EL) 2023/435, millega
muudetakse määrust (EL) 2021/241 riiklike taaste- ja vastupidavuskavade REPowerEU peatükkide
osas ning määrusi (EL) nr 1303/2013, (EL) 2021/1060 ja (EL) 2021/1755 ning direktiivi 2003/87/EÜ
(ELT L 63, 28.2.2023, lk 1).
8
Nõukogu soovitus, milles käsitletakse Eesti 2023. aasta riiklikku reformikava ja esitatakse nõukogu
arvamus Eesti 2023. aasta stabiilsusprogrammi kohta (ELT C 312, 1.9.2023, lk 49–57).
9
Euroopa Liidu toimimise lepingu artikli 126 lõike 3 kohaselt koostatud komisjoni aruanne, 24.5.2023
(COM(2023) 631 final).
ET 2 ET
aastal 3 % SKPst. Aruandes jõuti järeldusele, et Eesti ei täida aluslepingus
sätestatud puudujäägikriteeriumi.
10. Eelarvekava kohaselt peaks Eesti reaalne SKP kasvama 2024. aastal 2,7 %
(2023. aastal –2,0 %), samas kui THHI inflatsioon peaks 2024. aastal olema 4,8 %
(2023. aastal 9,6 %). Komisjoni 2023. aasta sügisprognoosi kohaselt peaks Eesti
reaalne SKP kasvama 2024. aastal 1,9 % (2023. aastal –2,6 %), samas kui
inflatsioon peaks 2024. aastal olema 3,5 % (2023. aastal 9,4 %). Kahe prognoosi
peamised erinevused tulenevad sellest, et võrreldes komisjoni prognoosiga on
eelarvekavas esitatud hinnang investeeringutele nii 2023. kui ka 2024. aasta puhul
palju optimistlikum, eratarbimist käsitlevad eeldused on 2023. aasta puhul
optimistlikumad ning netoekspordi panus on 2023. aasta puhul väiksem, kuid
2024. aasta puhul suurem. Komisjoni prognoosis on võetud arvesse 2023. aasta
kolmanda kvartali reaalse SKP kiirhinnangu andmeid, mis osutavad
majanduslanguse jätkumisele, ja varaseid näitajaid raskuste püsimise kohta, mis
selgitab ka, miks tema hinnang on üldiselt pessimistlikum. Kuna eelarvekavas
esitatud majandusväljavaated on optimistlikumad, prognoositakse selles ka
2024. aastaks kiiremat inflatsiooni kui komisjoni hinnangus. Üldiselt näib
eelarvekava eelarveprognooside aluseks olev makromajanduslik stsenaarium 2024.
(ja 2023.) aasta puhul soodsam kui komisjoni 2023. aasta sügisprognoos. Eesti
täidab määruse (EL) nr 473/2013 artikli 4 lõike 4 nõuet, kuna eelarvekava aluseks
on sõltumatult kinnitatud makromajanduslikud prognoosid.
11. Eelarvekava kohaselt peaks Eesti valitsemissektori puudujääk 2024. aastal
vähenema 2,9 %-le SKPst (2023. aastal 3,3 %), samal ajal kui valitsemissektori
võla suhe SKPsse peaks 2024. aasta lõpuks tõusma 20,9 %-le SKPst (2023. aasta
lõpus 19,4 %). Komisjoni 2023. aasta sügisprognoosi kohaselt peaks Eesti
valitsemissektori puudujääk 2024. aastal vähenema 2,4 %-le SKPst (2023. aastal
2,9 %), samal ajal kui valitsemissektori võla suhe SKPsse peaks 2024. aasta lõpuks
tõusma 20,5 %-le SKPst (2023. aasta lõpus 19,2 %). Kahe puudujäägiprognoosi
peamised erinevused tulenevad 2023. aasta esimese poole suhteliselt headest
eelarve täitmise tulemustest, mille mõju kandub üle 2024. aastasse. Komisjoni
prognoosis on neid arvesse võetud, eelarvekavas aga mitte. Seepärast on komisjoni
eelarveprognoos soodsam, kuigi tema prognoositav makromajanduslik stsenaarium
on ebasoodsam.
12. Kui 2023. aastal oli eelarvepoliitika10 ekspansiivne (0,7 % SKPst), siis 2024. aastal
on see komisjoni prognooside kohaselt pärssiv (0,9 %).
13. Eelarvekavas eeldatakse, et taaste- ja vastupidavusrahastu tagastamatust rahalisest
toetusest rahastatavate kulude maht on 2024. aastal 0,8 % SKPst, võrreldes 0,5 %ga
2023. aastal. See on kooskõlas komisjoni 2023. aasta sügisprognoosi aluseks
olevate eeldustega. Taaste- ja vastupidavusrahastu toetustest rahastatavad kulutused
võimaldavad teha kvaliteetseid investeeringuid ja viia ellu tootlikkust suurendavaid
reforme, ilma et see mõjutaks otseselt Eesti valitsemissektori eelarvepositsiooni ja
võlga.
10
Eelarvepoliitikat mõõdetakse esmaste kulude (ilma kaalutlusõigusel põhinevate tulumeetmetega
kaasneva täiendava eelarvemõjuta ja jättes välja ühekordsed ja tsüklilised töötuse kulud, kuid võttes
arvesse taaste- ja vastupidavusrahastu tagastamatute toetuste ja muude liidu vahenditega rahastatavaid
kulusid) muutusena keskpika perioodi (10 aasta) keskmise potentsiaalse majanduskasvu suhtes ja
väljendatakse suhtena nominaalsesse SKPsse).
ET 3 ET
14. Võttes arvesse eelarvekavas sisalduvat teavet, eeldatakse komisjoni 2023. aasta
sügisprognoosis, et energiahindade tõusust tuleneva majandus- ja sotsiaalmõju
leevendamiseks vastu võetud meetmed kavatsetakse 2023. aasta lõpuks täielikult
kaotada. Lisaks sisaldab eelarvekava 2024. aastal mitut uut tulu- ja kulumeedet ,
mis ei ole otseselt seotud energiahinna arenguga. Tulupoolel suurendatakse muu
hulgas mitmesuguseid keskkonnamakse ja -tasusid. Eelarvekavas esitatud
meetmete hulka kuulub ka äriühingute tulumaksust saadava tulu oodatav
suurenemine, sest kommertspangad maksavad varem kogunenud kapitalilt ja
kasumilt erakorraliselt tavapärasest suuremaid dividende11. Kulupoolel sisaldab
eelarvekava mitut väiksemat meedet, nagu õpetajate palkade, eestikeelse hariduse,
ühistranspordi, IT-investeeringute ja Ukraine pagulastele ette nähtud toetuse
täiendav rahastamine. Komisjoni hinnangul on nimetatud meetmete koondmõju
eelarvele 2024. aastal neutraalne (nii tulud kui ka kulud suurenevad 0,6 % SKPst)
ja suurem osa neist meetmetest peaks mõjutama riigi rahandust püsivalt.
15. 14. juulil 2023 soovitas nõukogu Eestil järgida konservatiivset eelarvepoliitikat,
eelkõige piirata riiklikult rahastatavate esmaste netokulude12 nominaalkasvu nii, et
see ei ületaks 2024. aastal 4,9 %. Komisjoni 2023. aasta sügisprognoosi kohaselt
peaks Eesti struktuurne eelarvepositsioon olema 2024. aastal –0,6 % SKPst
(2023. aastal –0,7 %), st ületama riigi keskpika perioodi eelarve-eesmärki, milleks
on struktuurne eelarvepositsioon –0,75 % SKPst13. Seepärast leitakse, et Eesti
näitaja on kooskõlas nõukogu soovitusega.
16. Nõukogu soovitas ka Eestil võtta meetmeid, et kaotada kehtivad
energiatoetusmeetmed võimalikult kiiresti 2023. ja 2024. aastal. Nõukogu
täpsustas, et kui uue energiahindade tõusu tõttu on vaja uusi või jätkuvaid
toetusmeetmeid, tuleks Eestil tagada, et sellised toetusmeetmed on suunatud
haavatavate leibkondade ja ettevõtete kaitsmisele, on eelarve seisukohast
vastuvõetava maksumusega ning säilitavad stiimulid energiasäästuks. Komisjoni
2023. aasta sügisprognoosi kohaselt peaks energiatoetusmeetmetest tulenev eelarve
netokulu14 olema 2023. aastal 0,3 % SKPst ning nii 2024. kui ka 2025. aastal 0 %
SKPst. Prognooside kohaselt kaotatakse energiatoetusmeetmed 2023. aasta lõpuks.
See on kooskõlas nõukogu soovitusega.
17. Lisaks soovitas nõukogu Eestil säilitada riiklikult rahastatavad avaliku sektori
investeeringud ning tagada taaste- ja vastupidavusrahastust antavate toetuste ja
muude liidu vahendite tulemuslik kasutuselevõtt, eelkõige rohe- ja digipöörde
edendamiseks. Komisjoni 2023. aasta sügisprognoosi kohaselt peaksid riiklikult
rahastatavad avaliku sektori investeeringud 2024. aastal suurenema 4,8 %-le SKPst
(2023. aastal 4,5 %), st prognoositakse, et investeeringud säilivad. See on
kooskõlas nõukogu soovitusega. Samal ajal prognoositakse, et ELi vahenditest,
sealhulgas taaste- ja vastupidavusrahastu toetustest, rahastatavad avaliku sektori
11
Komisjon ei liigita seda kaalutlusõigusel põhinevaks meetmeks.
12
Esmased netokulud on määratletud kui riiklikult rahastatavad kulud, millest on maha arvatud
kaalutlusõigusel põhinevad tulumeetmed ning intressikulud ja tsüklilise töötuse kulud.
13
Eesti langetas 2024. aasta eelarvekavas oma keskpika perioodi struktuurse eelarvepositsiooni
eesmärki –1 %-le SKPst. Eestile lubatud minimaalne keskpika perioodi eelarve-eesmärk on siiski –
0,75 % SKPst, nagu ELi tasandil kokku lepitud. Seepärast lähtutakse käesolevas hinnangus keskpika
eelarve-eesmärgi puhul näitajast –0,75 %.
14
Näitaja kajastab meetmete aastast eelarvekulu, milles on võetud arvesse tulusid ja kulusid ning millest
on asjakohasel juhul arvatud maha energiatarnijate erakorralisele kasumile kehtestatud maksudest
saadud tulud.
ET 4 ET
kulud peaksid 2024. aastal jääma samale tasemele 1,6 % SKPst (2023. aastal ka
1,6 %).
18. Samuti soovitas nõukogu 14. juulil 2023, et Eesti järgiks ka pärast 2024. aastat
sellist keskpika perioodi eelarvestrateegiat, mis ühendab järkjärgulise ja kestliku
konsolideerimise suuremat kestlikku majanduskasvu soodustavate investeeringute
ja reformidega, et saavutada usaldusväärne keskpika perioodi eelarvepositsioon.
Eelarvekavas on lühidalt teatatud, et uusima keskpika riigieelarve strateegia
kohaselt kavatseb Eesti keskpikal perioodil vähendada oma eelarvepuudujääki nii,
et see jõuaks 2027. aastaks tasemele 1,2 % SKPst. Eelarvekava ei sisalda
üksikasjalikke eelarveprognoose 2024. aastale järgneva aja kohta.
20. Komisjoni prognoosi kohaselt peaks Eesti saavutama 2024. aastal oma keskpika
perioodi eelarve-eesmärgi.
Võttes arvesse Eesti eelarvekavas sisalduvat teavet, eeldatakse komisjoni
2023. aasta sügisprognoosis samuti, et erakorralised energiatoetusmeetmed
kaotatakse 2023. aasta lõpuks.
Ühtlasi prognoositakse, et Eesti säilitab riiklikult rahastatavad avaliku sektori
investeeringud. Samuti peaks Eesti jätkuvalt tagama taaste- ja
vastupidavusrahastust antavate toetuste ja muude liidu vahendite tulemusliku
kasutuselevõtu.
Kokkuvõttes on komisjon arvamusel, et Eesti eelarvekava on kooskõlas nõukogu
14. juuli 2023. aasta soovitusega.
Samal ajal prognoosib komisjon 2024. aastal Eesti valitsemissektori nominaalseks
eelarvepuudujäägiks 2,4 % SKPst, mis jääb allapoole aluslepingus sätestatud
kontrollväärtust 3 % SKPst, ja valitsemissektori võlasuhteks 20,5 % SKPst, mis
jääb allapoole aluslepingus sätestatud kontrollväärtust 60 % SKPst.
Nõukogu riigipõhiste soovituste rakendamisel tehtud edusammude põhjalik
kirjeldus lisatakse 2024. aasta riigiaruandesse ja komisjon hindab neid edusamme
järgmiste nõukogu riigipõhiste soovituste koostamisel 2024. aasta kevadel.
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Tabel. Peamised makromajanduslikud ja eelarvenäitajad
2022 2023 2024
Tulemus Eelarvekava Komisjon Eelarvekava Komisjon
Reaalne SKP
(muutuse %) -0,5 -2,0 -2,6 2,7 1,9
THHI inflatsioon
19,4 9,6 9,4 4,8 3,5
(%, aasta keskmine)
Valitsemissektori eelarvepositsioon
-1,0 -3,3 -2,9 -2,9 -2,4
(% SKPst)
Esmane eelarvepositsioon
-0,9 -2,8 -2,4 -2,3 -1,9
(% SKPst)
Valitsemissektori koguvõlg
18,5 19,4 19,2 20,9 20,5
(% SKPst, aasta lõpu seisuga)
Komisjon Komisjon Komisjon
Eelarvepoliitika (*)
0,9 -0,7 0,8
(% SKPst)
Eelarvekohandus (**)
0,7 -0,7 0,8
(% SKPst)
Energiatoetusmeetmetest tuleneva
eelarvelise netokogukulu muutus (***) -0,7 -0,6 -0,3
(% SKPst)
Riiklikult rahastatavate esmaste
netokulude kasvumäär 4,2
(muutuse %) (A)
Riiklikult rahastatavate esmaste
netokulude soovitatud maksimaalne
4,9
kasvumäär (****)
(muutuse %) (B)
Erinevus riiklikult rahastatavate esmaste
netokulude soovitatud kasvumäärast
(protsendipunktides) (B–A) 0,7
Märkused:
(*) Valitsemissektori esmaste kulude (ilma kaalutlusõigusel põhinevate tulumeetmete (ja COVID-19 pandeemiaga seotud ajutiste
erakorraliste meetmete) täiendava eelarvemõjuta ja jättes välja ühekordsed ja tsüklilise töötuse kulud, kuid võttes arvesse taaste- ja
vastupidavusrahastu tagastamatute toetuste ja muude liidu vahenditega rahastatavaid kulusid) muutus keskpika perioodi (10 aasta)
keskmise potentsiaalse nominaalse SKP kasvumäära suhtes. Miinusmärgiga (plussmärgiga) näitaja kajastab esmaste kulude liigset
(vähest) kasvu võrreldes keskpika perioodi potentsiaalse SKP kasvuga, osutades ekspansiivsele (pärssivale) eelarvepoliitikale.
(**) Valitsemissektori esmaste kulude (ilma kaalutlusõigusel põhinevate tulumeetmete (ja COVID-19 pandeemiaga seotud ajutiste
erakorraliste meetmete) täiendava eelarvemõjuta ja jättes välja ühekordsed ja tsüklilise töötuse kulud ning taaste- ja
vastupidavusrahastu tagastamatute toetuste ja muude liidu vahenditega rahastatavad kulud) muutus keskpika perioodi (10 aasta)
keskmise potentsiaalse nominaalse SKP kasvumäära suhtes. Miinusmärgiga (plussmärgiga) näitaja kajastab riiklikult rahastatavate
esmaste kulude liigset (vähest) kasvu võrreldes keskpika perioodi potentsiaalse SKP kasvuga, osutades ekspansiivsele (pärssivale)
eelarvekohandusele.
(***) Energiatoetusmeetmed, millest on maha arvatud tulu, mis saadakse energiatootjate erakorralisele kasumile kehtestatud
uutest maksudest ja tasudest.
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(****) Vastavalt nõukogu soovitusele, milles käsitletakse Eesti 2023. aasta reformikava ja esitatakse nõukogu arvamus Eesti
2023. aasta stabiilsusprogrammi kohta (ELT C 312, 1.9.2023, lk 49).
(*****) Riiklikult rahastavate esmaste netokulude ülemäärane kasv võrreldes soovitatud maksimaalse kasvumääraga (väljendatud
protsendina SKPst).
„Eelarvekava“ tähendab 2024. aasta eelarvekava ja „komisjon“ Euroopa Komisjoni 2023. aasta sügisprognoosi.
Brüssel, 21.11.2023
Komisjoni nimel
Paolo GENTILONI
komisjoni liige
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