Baltic Transportation and Infrastructure Security

PROJECT SUMMARY TITLE OF THE PROJECT: BALTIC SECURITY STRATEGY PROJECT1 1. Objective Security threats to the three Baltic States of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia are at the greatest level ever since the three countries became members of NATO in 2004. After regaining their lost independence in 1991, their approach toward security—whether in the domains of defense, economics, or joining the European Union and NATO—has stressed a joint regional effort. Yet, despite some successes, such as establishing the Baltic Defense College, a closer look at the three Baltic States’ military planning, acquisition processes and overall national security strategies reveals significant shortcomings to such joint efforts, as well as serious divergences in their approaches to security. Mechanisms for fostering intra-regional military cooperation reached a high point in 1999, with the creation of the Baltic Battalion, consisting of military units of all three Baltic States. The BALTBAT would interact with NATO and be capable of out-of-area deployments. This unit was disbanded following NATO membership, although a new trilateral Baltic Battalion is now being formed within the NATO Response Force (NRF). For the most part, however, and particularly since joining the North Atlantic Alliance, each Baltic State has largely pursued a “go it alone approach” in terms of military defense planning. Interoperability and joint acquisition among the three Baltic militaries remain weak. Estonia maintains conscription and a concept of territorial defense, while Latvia abandoned the draft and Lithuania is now in the process of bringing it back. Building societal resilience to resist Russian-led hybrid warfare efforts against the Baltic States is also being conducted largely separately by each of the three countries. Furthermore, interstate approaches to battling common financial and economic threats—including illicit financial flows, energy disruptions and the like—are woefully underdeveloped. A unified Baltic defense and security strategy, which would direct a united Lithuanian-Latvian- Estonian approach, remains ambiguous and wholly undefined. To date, major Baltic think tanks and research institutes have focused mainly on national objectives or Transatlantic or European- wide security issues, neglecting intra-regional issues. At the same time, a working concept for how all three states could work together to resist the common threat to their continued independence is dysfunctional, theoretical and devoid of outside direction or supervision from NATO or the United States. In the absence of a well-articulated common Baltic security strategy, we find gaps in how the nuts and bolts of closer security cooperation between Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania should work in practice. With the support of the Baltic American Freedom Foundation, this gap can be corrected, and the practical issues impeding closer regional security cooperation can be better understood by US and NATO policymakers who seek to deepen their support for the Baltic States. 1 Previous titles of the Project: "Building the Net Assessment and Common Competitive Strategy for the Baltic States" (Spring 2017) and "Effective Security Strategy Models: Lessons from the U.S. and Small States for the Baltics" (Fall 2017) Policy Implications The study pertaining to the Baltic Security Strategy is to provide policy implications on Baltic regional unity and the possible avenues for further development, harmonization or synchronization of the national security effort in the context of closer regional cooperation. Russia's intervention in Ukraine showed the Baltic States and NATO partners how important it is to keep and expand Baltic Unity and strengthen their security cooperation. The concept of the Net Assessment tells us that the Baltic States should learn more of their history and declare frequently the intent and plans to integrate their defenses, which according to experts and practitioners should be an effective deterrent measure along with collective security arrangements. The increasing role of social media within the information space and digital market economy along with growing hybrid threats demonstrate the need to include a wider definition of security in drafting policy options. This is especially true for the Baltic States as the testing ground of political instruments used by Russia to gain influence on power and resources, as well as the allies of the Baltic States. Apart from interactions between national decision-makers, the policy implications should consider the interactions between the national decision-makers and domestic social groups, addressing societal security as a fundamental aspect in dealing with the resilience and cohesiveness of a society of a given Baltic State. Beyond assessing what the Baltic States have done and could do 'from the inside', the recommendations are aimed at the USA, NATO and EU for what they can do 'from the outside' to fill the gaps in the security environment of the three countries and surrounding region in ways that the Baltic States cannot fulfill by themselves. This approach should go hand in hand with understanding the benefits provided by policy options to the individual Baltic States and their strategic partners. Accomplishments of the Stage II To address current shortcomings, our group launched a cycle of Seminars - a small pilot project in the fall of 2017 entitled “Effective Security Strategy Models: Lessons from the U.S. and Small States for the Baltics.” This project consisted of a series of public seminars across the Baltic States aimed at assessing public interest in the problem outlined above. The Stage II project had three areas of focus:  First, to find good examples of defense and security strategy making tools of other nations that could benefit defense and security planning in the Baltics (primarily the Net Assessment).  Second, to capitalize on the widespread general public interest in the Baltic States by creating a broader public discussion on security, defense matters and intra-regional security.  Third, as a result of these meetings, to bring to light a wide range of topics of debate and discussions among experts, professionals and academics across all three Baltic States; a new desire emerged to find ways to address the common regional security challenges in a more concerted—that is, unified—manner. During the seminars, participants examined key US defense analysis concepts developed by Andrew Marshall and the Office of Net Assessment in the Pentagon. These discussions examined how the Net Assessment concept might be applied to small nations. Key terms and concepts of the Net Assessment process were explored, particularly in regard to how nations develop competitive strategies. The Net Assessment approach permits the Baltic States to confront the frightening facts and figures about its opponent and instead paint a more holistic and realistic picture of what NATO could actually confront in the Baltic region. By instinctively characterizing the threat posed by Russia as a powerful giant, one can easily miss its “feet of clay.” Such asymmetric weaknesses are often overlooked as countries estimate their opponents’ power. Asymmetries, as well as historical perspectives, are particularly relevant to a potential unified Baltic security strategy. The impetus for this project began in September 2017, when Director of the Project, Mr. Olevs Nikers, visited Washington, DC, as a Transatlantic Partnership Fellow. He had numerous meetings with House and Senate staff members on the Hill, members of the National Security Council, as well as several think tanks (Brookings, Heritage Foundation, RAND corp.), acquiring moral support for the project from across Congress. One of the key outcomes of the pilot project was a realization that the Baltic States have potential partners in Washington, DC, and in Brussels (NATO & EU) who share these concerns and are eager to obtain more detailed insights into Baltic regional security arrangements in order to help the Baltic States engage in harmonizing their regional defense cooperation. Following the success of the first set of private meetings, a series of seminars was organized across the Baltic States to discuss the US experience and that of small nations, such as Finland, after 1939 to the present, of developing their own security strategies. The seminars also examined future prospects for closer defense and security cooperation among the Baltic States. The success of these seminars fostered broader public discussion and engagement about these issues, as participants looked for ways to expand and continue these discussions into the future. Here are the topics which were discussed most frequently during the Seminars: Finland, from which we can learn so much from its past, supports Baltic cooperation within the existing framework (non-NATO). Lithuania stresses that its historical issues in the past with Poland and Germany is something that can be subject to manipulation, but this will not have any effect collective security. Polish and German troops in Lithuania within the EFP mission is strong proof. Societal resilience and engagement in state defense were immediately realized in Lithuania after Russia’s aggression in Ukraine in 2014. This realization also arose in Latvia, introducing a comprehensive defense strategy. The Kremlin is targeting the Russian-speaking population in all three f the Baltic countries simultaneously, but responses to these activities from the side of each Baltic country differs. Should there be a unified regional strategy to target Russian speakers from the side of our governments within the information space of the Baltics? Is there any unified Baltic identity across the Baltic countries? Should it be there, and how can it happen? Will the strengthening of Baltic security cooperation increase deterrence against Russia? Which defense instruments would be appropriate? Is this a road towards much more integrated armed forces of the Baltics or the creation of an individual Baltic Brigade? Is the institutional cooperation sufficient among the Baltic countries, and how can it be made more effective? Should there be any common strategy or more synchronized measures towards financial or cyber threats coming from the East? What about energy and the economy? What about joint procurements and military innovations and science? Should we make a single body of Net Assessment for the Baltics, or implement these tools separately in our countries? The seminars included lecturers such as Mr. Paul Goble, former Special Adviser on Baltic Affairs to the then Secretary of State. and Mr. Roger Robinson, Jr., former senior adviser of International Economic Affairs to the National Security Council. More than 140 defense professionals, academics, experts, representatives of foreign missions and students participated in these events. Among participants of the seminars were representatives of foreign missions and members of Parliament. Security adviser to the President of the Republic of Latvia Mr. Jānis Kažociņš participated in the final Seminar event. STAGE III (March 15 – February 28, 2019) The aim of the Third stage of this Project is to engage academics and professionals of the three Baltic States, U.S. and NATO into developing a tangible product – a study and policy recommendations with regard to the aforementioned issues. The objective of the Project is to develop joint academic and professional advice for decision-makers of the Baltic States (Parliaments and Ministers of Defense of the Baltic States). Simultaneously, this platform can be utilized to improve the contents of national defense strategies of each Baltic State with an attempt to develop a more integrated, common military / defense strategy of the Baltic States. Members of Latvian Parliament (Committees of Foreign Affairs and National Defense) already expressed their official support of the Project. The Ministry of Defense of Latvia has also expressed its interest and willingness to contribute its expertise and professionals to this work. Representatives of Estonian and Lithuanian foreign missions in Latvia expressed their interest into the Project and provided their support with regard to involvement of their capitals. Currently, the Presidium of the Baltic Assembly, which is the executive body of the counseling forum for Members of Parliament of the Baltic States, is considering their support of the Project. During this stage, six workshops (two times per theme) of practitioners, scholars and experts in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania will be brought together. The purpose of the panels is: to establish a forum of professionals and practitioners (governmental and non- governmental) and scholars/experts from all three Baltic States and oversee their collaboration in two stages – (1) evaluating the status of security cooperation among Baltic countries and (2) developing recommendations for the decision-makers of the Baltic countries with regard to certain policy implementation proposals, as well as develop a publication. The goal of this Project is to convene a series of six + one workshops. Six workshops will be divided into three issue topics pertaining to intra-regional (Lithuanian-Latvian- Estonian) cooperation – (1) military cooperation and interoperability, (2) societal resilience in countering information warfare and other “hybrid” threats, and (3) a joint approach to dealing with financial, economic and energy threats, including cyber- attacks on strategic infrastructure. Each workshop pair within one of those issue topics will consist of an “initial” seminar to address the problem and then a “follow up” seminar dedicated to discussing ways to solve the problem through practical trilateral cooperation. Participants at the workshops will include practitioners (governmental, non-governmental and private entrepreneurship), scholars and experts from Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. At the conclusion of each of the six workshops, a policy memo will be written, based upon the key findings and conclusions reached by the workshop participants. Workshop #7 will be organized in Washington D.C. in cooperation with The Jamestown Foundation, where policy papers, developed in the Workshops, will be discussed among distinguished participants as the key Jamestown board members will be briefed on the findings, including former CIA Director Michael V. Hayden, former Director of Pentagon Intelligence, Michael Vickers, and Michael Carpenter, the former Deputy Secretary of Defense for Russia and Eurasia. General Ben Hodges and Retired General Phil Breedlove are expected to participate in Workshop #7. Research questions that will be addressed during the workshops include the following:  What is the current state of cooperation between the Baltic countries in terms of defense and deterrence, economic security and societal security (hybrid threats)?  What is the current state of cooperation in cyber security?  How can Baltic security cooperation enhance deterrence against the potential regional adversary?  What are the current technical, practical or policy impediments to further trilateral military interoperability, and how can these be overcome?  How will strengthening Baltic security cooperation benefit NATO’s collective security and the Baltic States strategic partnership with the United States?  How can Baltic regional cooperation arrangements complement Baltic Sea regional security and European security?  What regional arrangements should be introduced in response to potential hybrid threats and securing the informational space throughout the Baltics?  What are the common security strategy instruments within fields of defense and deterrence, economic security and societal security (hybrid threats), which should be introduced in order to strengthen Baltic security cooperation? Organizaton of the Workshops will be conducted under the umbrella of the Latvian Political Scientists Association in close cooperation with the Center for Security and Strategic Research at the National Defense Academy of Latvia and The Jamestown Foundation in the United States. There will be three main products of the proposed project: (1) A study that integrates the assessment and policy recommendations within the respective domains; (2) A presentation of the workshop findings for the decision-makers of the Baltic States, strategic (US, NATO and EU) and regional partners; and (3) A publication. 2. How many people will participate in the Project (e.g., a training and development program, an individual expert traveling to participate in a meeting, or a group participating in a consultation visit)? Workshops and events in the Baltic States will be organized by Mr. Olevs Nikers and Mr. Otto Tabuns in cooperation with the Center for Security and Strategic Research at the National Defense Academy of Latvia. Around 15 experts from the Baltic States within their respective domains will be actively engaged in the Workshops. Product of the work will be presented to the Members of Parliaments and governments of the Baltic States, policy makers in Washington DC and Brussels, as well as to the wider audience of practitioners and scholars during the Riga Conference in September 2018. The Jamestown Foundation will support the organization of Workshop #7 in Washington D.C. and final presentation events. Key Jamestown board members will be briefed on the findings, including former CIA Director Michael V. Hayden, former Director of Pentagon Intelligence, Michael Vickers, and Michael Carpenter, the former Deputy Secretary of Defense for Russia and Eurasia. General Ben Hodges and Retired General Phil Breedlove are expected to participate in Workshop #7. Academic Advisor of the Project is Prof. Žaneta Ozoliņa (University of Latvia). 3. Where the Project will take place (e.g., a Latvian expert completing training in the U.S., or a U.S. expert group visiting Estonia, or reciprocal visits between Lithuania and the U.S.) The Project will include preparation and execution of the Workshops across the three Baltic States (Tartu, Riga and Vilnius). The product of the work will be presented during the Riga Conference 2018, in Washington DC and in Brussels. The workshop in Defense and Deterrence will be organized in Tartu, Estonia, workshop on Societal Resilience in Riga, Latvia and workshop on Economic Security in Vilnius, Lithuania. For example, experts within their respective fields will travel to the Workshop at the Baltic Defense College, Tartu from Riga and Vilnius and so on. Representatives of the Workshops, as well as members of Parliaments and governments, will be invited travel to the Riga Conference. Organizers of the Workshops will travel to participate in the Conference conducted by the Association for Advancement of Baltic Studies Conference at Stanford University, as well as in Workshop # 7 in Washington D.C., presentation events in Washington D.C. and in Brussels. President of the Jamestown Foundation Glen Howard will travel to the Riga Conference and to the presentation of the Project in Brussels. Leading experts of the Workshops (2 from each Baltic State) will travel to Washington D.C. to the Presentation events. When the Project will take place and for how long (e.g., one week for a consultation visit, or up to one year for a training and development program) Workshops will be organized from the middle of March until June, followed by production of the Papers until August. The Riga Conference will be held on September 28, Workshop #7 is planned to be organized between July and October, and the final presentation in Washington D.C. and in Brussels will be held in November 2018. Dear Mr. Kajak I am writing you with regard to the Baltic Security Strategy Project (BSSP). We are team of Scholars and Professionals, who are developing a Report and Policy Recommendations on Intra-regional security cooperation among the Baltic Countries and Transportation / Infrastrucure security are among of the Issues we are focusing on. More information about the Project please read in attached pdf. file. Our current partners are Estonian, Latvian and Lithuanian ministries of Foreign Affairs, Economics, Finance, Defense and Culture, Latvian Parliament, Baltic Assembly, Think tanks, Baltic Defense College, Latvian National Defense Academy, Lithuanian Defense Academy, Vilnius University, Tallinn University, US Embassy in Riga, The Jamestown Foundation (US) and others. The Report and Policy Options will be presented at the Riga Conference 2018, Heads of Governments and Ministers of the Baltic Countries, Members of Parliaments, Baltic Assembly, NATO HQ in Brussels, European Commission and Washngton DC. I would kindly ask you to advice us a PoC, who would direct me to the respective Experts within the above mentioned field of the Transport / Infrastructure Security. Sincerest regards Olevs Nikers Director, BSSP